Posted on 05/19/2018 6:52:13 PM PDT by iowamark
Can’t get there from here.
Quite a few of the people listed on the R tossup list are Democrats in R jerseys.
Except for the jersey who would know the difference?
Generally, people don’t ask too many questions of primary runners for House seats. That is true.
If you have a district designed with 60-percent Republican-slanted voters....it does no good to run as a Democrat.
One of the issues I see coming up is the 2020 Census. If Trump does force the legit count deal....I think twenty states might be forced to redraw lines on congressional districts, and this could be the massive mess waiting in 2021/2022.
These ratings seem too pro-rat.
Cartwright is “likely dem”? He has a well funded opponent in a district Trump carried.
And Gottenheimer in NJ? Come on.
Ryan’s seat a tossup? KS-2 a tossup?
I don’t buy it.
bfl
Gottenheimer might face Steve Lonegan.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G18/NJ
But how accurate in predicting congressional districts was he?
Comparing to Obama voters not there in 2010 and 2014? And GOP gains in the house .
Steve Loseagain. Well he has a ton more money than the other R, the unfortunately named John McCann.
Even with Loseagain I wouldn’t rate it worse than “Lean D”.
Wait until the Den scandals (Congressional hush money for sexual harassment, Awan brothers, spying on Trump, Uranium 1) hit, together with crackdown on voter fraud, and Trump’s share of the black vote topping 20% can’t help Dems much either (think *staying home*).
Wait until the Den scandals (Congressional hush money for sexual harassment, Awan brothers, spying on Trump, Uranium 1) hit, together with crackdown on voter fraud, and Trump’s share of the black vote topping 20% can’t help Dems much either (think *staying home*).
Once Trump consolidates power under the new Congress, things will get very interesting. Right now, I believe Trump is in a holding pattern.
No way PA-1 is a toss up.
Fitzpatrick took over the seat from his brother, and I suspect at least 75% of the voters don’t even realize anything changed.
In 2016, Fitzpatrick beat his Rat challenger by 9 points, whereas the entire district (then PA-8) went to The Wicked Witch by a few thousand votes. Like his brother, he’s a true-blue RINO. He refused to endorse Trump, and easily beat a Trumpian challenger in the recent primary.
Redistricting peeled away a red area in upper Montgomery county, but not enough to wipe away a 9 point advantage.
Esty (CT-5) is retiring? Good, It is a part of Connecticut that went Trump. Mostly small towns and small cities. The only big city is Waterbury, which is not as liberal as some of the other cities), New Britian and Meriden (both R mayors).
I think Sabato is pretty good when he is on FOX. Remember, part of the MSM game, even on FOX, is to promote the drama of every election, and make it seem like a horse race, to boost viewership.
Yeah, he also leans liberal, but isn’t too obnoxious about it.
Democrat scandals? All the scandals you metion have already hit and no one knows about them because the media does not, and never will, report them.
The only “scandals” people know about are Trump-Russia and Trump-Porn Star.
Crack down on voter fraud? You really think tje do nothing, recuse himself Jeff Sessions Justice Department is going to do anything?
Baris has 35 seats truly in contention.
We need to win 25.
Lean liberal? I disagree. Just like Eleanor Clift he is always over-predicting Democrat numbers. I believe I first heard of him back in 1994.
Poor Larry Sabato just does not get it. Republicans will win six to twelve Senate seats and will pickup twelve to twenty House seats. He will be just another failed court jester, pundit, pollster, with his biased liberal, progressive Democrat election prediction being dead wrong, once again.
And....If the Democrat, Obama, Clinton, Brennan, Clapper, Comey, Meuller, Rosenstein, etc., farce “Hate Trump” caper is fully revealed to the American Republic, as I believe it will be...there will be no Democrat Party to speak of come November, 2018.
As a side bar....all of you good folks & voters in the great states of Arkansas, Kentucky & Georgia that will be voting in your state primary elections this coming Tuesday, turn out by the millions to vote for only Republicans candidates showing your strong support for POTUS, Donald J. Trump.
If the American Republic nation & people are to effectively survive into the future as a free nation, the entire Democrat Party must be politically destroyed. The future of our USA is in your hands. Go POTUS, Donald J. Trump...MAGA!!!
I recalled that he picked Hilldog to win big. Considering the attention he gets, Sabado does not seem to be very good at the prognostication thing.
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