While Pelosi is unpopular, do not bet that simply running a campaign tying Dems to Pelosi will keep the house.
In this same interview Lutz also openly admitted the motivation gap the Dems have this fall.
If the Dems show up with presidential Year turnouts, the Pelosi bogeyman will not be enough to hold the house.
This fact and message was exactly what the GOP used heavily in PA 18 and it failed miserably. That sort of messaging and red meat for the R base may be great for a deep red state or district, but it’s not going to get you motivation and turnout of the non traditional and crossover voters that put Trump in the White House.
The GOP needs to figure out it needs these voters to win, particularly in places like the upper Midwest. But given they don’t seem to want to accept that reality, and haven’t bothered even trying to talk to those voters, let alone give them a reason to care or show up this fall, they are very likely to lose a lot of purple and pink districts. I would expect 10+ house seats to be lost in the upper Midwest alone.
The numbers don’t lie folks. The one thing that almost certainly would turn the election on a dime and ensure GOP not only holding but gaining seats in the house would be if the left openly ran on impeachment. That would instantaneously nationalize the election for everyone and motivate those non traditional MAGA voters to show up out of sheer outrage and anger at the democrats for trying to remove their duly elected president.
However short of that, I don’t see the GOP currently able to hold the house, without those non traditional MAGA voters motivated, engaged and excited, the Dems will overwhelm many districts in the midterms with their turnout, and I don’t see the GOP even understanding, let alone trying to get those folks motivated and engaged.
Pelosi as boogeyman may motivate your base, but it won’t get those other voters and without them... you lose a lot of purple and pink districts.
At present I see the R’s gaining 6+ in the senate and losing the house.
Seriously? That would take a blue wave like 1994 Republican proportions...ain’t happening. Neither is 7 seat flip in Senate for Rs. Dems may gain some in the House, but not enough to move the needle. R’s may pick up a few in the Senate. Rs will still hold majority, but it will still take Trump to drag them kicking and screaming through his America First agenda because they just don’t know how (or want to) win.