My perspective is unusual. I’m a Midwesterner by birth who grew up in a liberal family, converted to conservatism in my early 20s, and now living in NYC and active in conservative & libertarian politics.
What I see is the convergence of various trends:
1) many newly-engaged voters in 2016, primarily voting for Trump. It remains to be seen whether they remain engaged.
2) a significant proportion of Dems are distressed at the authoritarian style and radicalism of activists and leaders in their own party. They are disaffected, but not enough to vote for an R yet.
3) a split among movement conservatives between
a) a small group with an older model of political discourse. They believe in a mainstream of policy influence. They want conservative ideas to be taken seriously across the political spectrum.
b) a much larger group that has incorporated populist and traditionalist elements into standard Buckley-style fusionism. They are less concerned with respectability, since they have become aware that their ideas were never considered mainstream ideas.
Group a) may have had a hand in influencing party platforms or key policy. They would defend Bushism, or Romneyism, etc. although my term for these policy approaches is right-statism.
Group b) is disaffected with politics. They see, as Walsh does, that Group a) has had few policy victories, nearly all of them having increased the intrusion of the state into our private lives (e.g., No Child Left Behind, Patriot Act, Medicare Part D, etc)
Group b) has realized that it doesn’t need group a) as an intermediary or power broker, and has declared political independence.
It is a time of ideological flux, and it’s not entirely clear to me how it will settle.
Excellent analysis.