Well there's your problem.
They sampled 100 people in their newsroom.
That CNN internals were so bad that the poll should never have been released, and I’m not kidding. They had the demos as 25% dem, 25% GOP, and 49% Independents. AZ is 35 GOP, 35 ind, and 30 dem. The independents tend to stay home during midterms here but have been known to throw weight heavily from one party to the next like in AZ01. I don’t believe for one second Sinema gets a heavy break from the independents to win.