Posted on 12/17/2018 10:37:46 AM PST by Moonman62
If only Trump had the opportunity to put in his own Fed Chairman...
Actually it is just gravity pulling the market down.
Observe this long term chart..
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
Actually, I agree with you. To their credit, the FEDs have moved slowly and have indicated a possible pause in rate hikes. In reality, if there ever was a time to measurably raise rates, it is now, thanks almost exclusively to Trump.
My beef is that almost all the financial dailies are pining for a recession. They are magnifying any possible economic issue beyond reason leading to wide market swings, and this is compared to the glowing, hopeful coverage they provided Obama with every single day for 8 long years. We all remember the hopeful economic catch word routinely deployed during Obama’s reign: “unexpectedly”.
So, the FEDs may be playing it straight, but I certainly wouldn’t say the bulk of the financial markets are, or at least those who report on it and those who are likely given insider input from those financial barons (Bloomberg, et. al.) who wish to do harm to Trump.
Can’t help thinking I don’t blame you.
Raising interest rates help some folks. It hurts everyone else.
A five percent rate rise would cost the federal government $91.66 billion dollars a month on the current national debt. That would be $1.1 trillion dollars per year.
The government just cut personal and small business taxes. That would be eaten up and more by a 5% interest rate rise.
Business expansion would turn into remain in place or contraction. Businesses bringing jobs back to the U. S. would stop.
We all would pay 5% higher rates on all of our debt.
Yes, I’d like to see higher rates on my savings, but it would all be eaten up by higher rates and costs on everything I spend money on.
I don’t honestly know how to resolve this issue. I know that you would like to see the rate near the inflation rate. I think the inflation rate is much higher than that used to calculate the SS COLA.
If you raise the rates to the inflation rate, guess what happens to the inflation rate the next year. That becomes a vicious cycle.
I don’t think of going back to the days of Jimmy Carter to be an ideal goal.
Population growth has nothing to do with it. In cease productivity and hold population growth flat and you will see PROSPERITY.
I don’t think that was the case in 2007 when Bush was in power.
To me a strong dollar means high value against foreign currencies, I have been tracking the Thai Baht for years and am not seeing the strong dollar.
Dec 2016 $1 to 35.5 Baht
Dec 2017 $1 to 33.1 Baht
Dec 2018 $1 to 32.7 Baht
I use this site to track rates and it breaks it down by local Thai banks:
http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx
"It is easier to get forgiveness than it is to receive permission." —Rear Admiral Grace Murray Hopper, U.S. Navy's Chips Ahoy magazine (July 1986)
More specifically, note that Thomas Jefferson had written that the delegates to the Constitutional Convention had considered Benjamin Franklin's suggestion to add building canals to the postal roads clause (1.8.7) to facilitate interstate commerce 1.8.3). But the delegates dropped Franklin's suggestion because being able to build canals would give Congress an excuse to regulate INTRAstate banking, some of the delegates knowing that federal regulation of intrastate banking would be unacceptable to their respective states.
Basic idea of Franklin's proposed Article I, Section 8, Clause 7: "To establish Post Offices and post Roads[, Canals];"
“A proposition was made to them to authorize Congress to open canals, and an amendatory one to empower them to incorporate. But the whole was rejected, and one of the reasons for rejection urged in debate was, that then they would have a power to erect a bank, which would render the great cities, where there were prejudices and jealousies on the subject, adverse to the reception of the Constitution [emphases added].” —Jefferson’s Opinion on the Constitutionality of a National Bank : 1791.
And speaking of corrupt, Democratic-controlled federal government, FDR's unconstitutional executive order to confiscate gold effectively unconstitutionally repealed the Constitution's Article I, Section 10, Clause 1 imo.
"Article I, Section 10, Clause 1: No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts [emphasis added]; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility."
On the other hand, if Pres. Woodrow Wilson-era federal Democrats had first successfully petitioned the states for a banking power amendment to the Constitution before establishing the Fed, instead of stealing unique, 10th Amendment-protected state powers to establish the Fed as they did, then I wouldn't be making this post.
"In every event, I would rather construe so narrowly as to oblige the nation to amend, and thus declare what powers they would agree to yield, than too broadly, and indeed, so broadly as to enable the executive and the Senate to do things which the Constitution forbids." —Thomas Jefferson: The Anas, 1793.
Also, off topic, patriots are encouraged to watch Dan Bongino’s excellent 37 min video (associated book). The video helps to flesh out the alleged Mueller conspiracy against Pres. Trump.
Dan Bongino - Obama, Mueller and the Biggest Scam in American History (not office friendly, lower sound level)
I did not say both are needed. Either one can contribute individually or in combination.
That’s their plan.
Looks like the Fed is shooting for a recession timed to hit the 2020 elections
Current FED is doing an admirable job in raising rates at deliberately slow and orderly fashion. I am in my late 70’s, and have seen FED rates increased much faster.
What the modestly higher rates by FED will do is build tools available to counter-act when next recession actually hits, by HAVING ROOM TO LOWER RATES. I do not support big jumps in interest rates. But modest rate increases are necessary to reduce the hard asset bubbles existing currently. That will avoid a big bang crash or depression later.
Europe has it’s tit in the ringer because they have near zero (negative in some countries) rates already, and have nothing left to stimulate the economy in the form of lower rates, except go more and more in debt, just like Japan has been doing.
If rates can not be increased during lowest unemployment periods, there never is going to be a more opportune time.
Not much trade with Thailand. Look to the Euro first, Mexico and Canada after that. China is a tough one because they manipulate the heck out of their currency.
The retired folks on fixed income have been suffering for more than 10 yrs now. Used to be you could retire with $1million dollars in retirement and live well off of the interest. Not the case at all anymore
I think that is a reasoned argument. There is a valid issue addressed, but I think it eats on itself if your plan is implemented.
I still do not think a rise of 5% over lets say five years, does anything to help the economy.
It still eats up our tax cuts. It still drives businesses under water. It still causes a drag on the economy.
It still causes inflation.
It still results in you having to pay more for everything, including your debt.
These negative outcomes are why you have a recession in the first place.
What you are arguing for is room to react to a recession you basically planned.
This is absolutely deliberate. We are going to have to put the financial industry on the list as well.
+100
That’s the plan
Trump and Conservatives will be “Hooverized” blamed for crashing the world’s economy.
http://alt-market.com/articles/3585-dont-get-distracted-by-the-trumpfed-soap-opera-the-crash-will-continue
I agree it’s not that way any longer.
To be honest, I’d like to be able to save up money and higher interest rates would help.
Your money is worth less and less, and it’s just not growing to keep up.
Both you and Entropy touch on a sore spot.
If you raise interest rates to 7%, doesn’t that raise the costs of just about everything by 7%?
Doesn’t it kill business, kill borrowing, kill your ability to afford things?
You raise interest rates on homes by 7%, and there goes ones ability to purchase a home. Who could afford the payments. Each percentage rise is a hundred or two in increased loan payments.
Do you guys have a solution to this?
With all due respect that’s kind of dumb an ostrich head in the ground. You’re telling me 3.7% unemployment? Low inflation? Growth and people coming off of welfare and food stamps. Housing market is still good. I have been investing for over 30 years don’t tell me this is just normal. There are people tanking the market with billions of dollars on purpose. Those people make way more money when Clinton is in bed with apple is in bed with Amazon is in bed with Google and Facebook and all the others and all their investment schemes. They want those people in charge of everything please don’t insult my intelligence. Have you ever seen the market drop like this when you have this type of low inflation and unemployment? No sir you have not.
Rush mentioned that last week.
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