I would say this is just about a cat-5 now, some of the recent recon data support that, but apparently NHC not entirely convinced so staying at strong cat-4.
In reality, the chances are still somewhere between 1 in 4 and 1 in 3 that Florida would get sideswiped by a later turn, so don’t let down your guard yet.
This hurricane makes me think of Fran in 1996. It unexpectedly stalled for 24 hours over the Gulf Stream. Instead of strengthening as expected, the wind field doubled in size.
Every hurricane is capable of surprises.
Latest model runs are very bad for Florida and show landfall and stall-out over the peninsula.