If Jones internals show he has a chance of re-election the could lose him because he knows he’s dead if votes to convict. Manchin just re-elected so it’s hard to say. The “Mi Dude” is up in 20 and in very close race but I would be shocked if he broke ranks and Senema is out in space so who knows.
Manchin might run for Governor and his state is conservative. He’s a guaranteed no vote. Same with Jones. As for Sinema, she’ll follow the polls.