Coronavirus likely now ‘gathering steam’

The Harvard Gazette ^ | 02.11.20 | Alvin Powell

[Freedom56v2]

The number of confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus have continued to surge inside China, sickening tens of thousands, with a death toll of more than 1,000. But outside the Asian giant the numbers remain a fraction of that, a trend Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch views with suspicion. Lipsitch thinks it is just a matter of time before the virus spreads widely internationally, which means nations so far only lightly hit should prepare for its eventual arrival in force and what may seem like the worst flu season in modern times. Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and head of the School’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, talked to the Gazette about recent developments in the outbreak and provided a look ahead.

Q&A Marc Lipsitch

GAZETTE: We spoke about the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak about a week and a half ago. What do we know now that we didn’t know then?

LIPSITCH: We know that the spread is even greater than it was then. It was likely then that it would spread more widely, but there was still hope for containment. I think now that it’s in more countries — even Singapore, which is really good at tracing cases, has found some cases that aren’t linked to previous known cases — it’s clear that there are probably many cases in countries where we haven’t yet found them. This is really a global problem that’s not going to go away in a week or two.

GAZETTE: You indicated that the rapid increase in cases was largely due to existing cases that hadn’t been diagnosed rather than new infections. Is that still your sense, or is some of the daily increase in cases due to new transmission?

[Monty22002]

I don’t think speculation really helps now.

[21twelve]

Yeah, that is interesting on the two “peaks” to the Spanish Flu. The whole thing lasted a year and a half iirc.

[rdcbn]

All you can do at this point is speculate.

You are dealing with a virus that is highly mutable, very hardy, has multiple transmission modes, has a relatively long latency period between the time a person is contagious and begings to show symptoms, and so far seemingly exhibits a very high communicability and transmission rate at least in Asian populations

[Monty22002]

We’re still relying mostly on CCP worthless data. I don’t trust it.

[fr_freak]

>> The number of confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus have continued to surge inside China, <<

Really? What kind of statistically illiterate would write that sentence?

I suppose it's the same kind of grammatically illiterate person who is unaware of proper subject/verb agreement in English. But then, he is from Harvard.

[rdcbn]

The important thing right now is to asses the proper course of action and begin to concentrate resources and formulate policy in that direction.

its very possible that this virus cannot and will not be contained, so allocating all resources to a Wuhan style quarantine could be a misallocation of resources.

Unless of course the goal is to buy time to develop and field a vaccine or effective drug for treatment

Exactly what the most productive allocation of resources to combat this emerging threat is pretty much a matter informed speculation with multiple contingencies at this time.

This is a developing situation and as the virus spreads into more wide spread populations it could develop in different directions better or worse.

[9YearLurker]

Except we really have no more reason to believe China on this than on anything else. They are now forcing companies to resume production.

[Monty22002]

I have a feeling it’s not as deadly as many forecast and we’re in a situation that a lot will get it but not many will die from it.

It seems a bit worse than SARS but not nothing anything to go bonkers over.

[CincyRichieRich]

Gathering steam here, and falling off on another thread...doctors disagreeing...fascinating.

[Moonman62]

Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and head of the School’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Seems like the guy might know about which he speaks...

...

Seems to me like he’s basing his opinion on reports in the media.

The Coronavirus web page at the CDC is very quiet.

[MarMema]

China changed their definition of confirmed cases.

[mewzilla]

Part of the reason why we might not have a vaccine sooner...

Major drug makers haven’t stepped up to manufacture NIH coronavirus vaccine, top U.S. health official says

[mythenjoseph]

Quite simply , I do not believe the Chinese government will be forthright with true stats. The affect on their economy will outweigh a more rational approach. Life is cheap in China and when people are subjugated to the extent that they are it has to be a Stockholm situation x1000 . It is not in China’s interest to be open with the world. It is not very wise to deny God as they do . I post this in response to the article as this man bases his opinion on possibly very muted information and statistic’s .

[TigerClaws]

Not sure how legit this is but it allgedly shows that those suspected of having the virus are now being summarily executed:

https://twitter.com/orchard3sixty/status/1227538157391925248?s=21

[PIF]

Life is cheap in China

---

A point that many here do not know or understand, furthering their belief that the Chinese Government is at least somewhat honest. And believe the numbers the Chinese Government release,and are subsequently used by US medical agencies,can be relied on to make charts graphs assumptions conclusions.

They do not seem to understand the numbers from the Chinese Government are a political statement, not a factual one. Their only concern with the shutdown quarantine is money - if the principle parties of the CCP and the various PLA generals are not getting the money they demand, then peasants die or someone gets shot until the cash flow resumes.

[null and void]

The ChiComs' data says its plateauing out. If you can't trust them who can you trust? And remember, no one is better at torturing the data until it confesses...

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[TigerClaws]

There was a twitter post (now removed) of a leaked Chinese document claiming that China was preparing 100,000 new beds to cope with the disease.

[null and void]

You are dealing with a virus that is highly mutable, very hardy, has multiple transmission modes, has a relatively long latency period between the time a person is contagious and begins to show symptoms, and so far seemingly exhibits a very high communicability and transmission rate at least in Asian populations

I'd be hard pressed to write a better description of an ideal biological weapon. Not saying it is one, but it checks off all the boxes save one. Apparently there is no vaccine or treatment to protect your own people.

[null and void]

If you can't attack the facts, nitpick the grammar. Perhaps he sleeps better on those rare nights when he can convince himself that there is nothing to worry about.

So some respectable dodo in the Mauritius might have lorded it in his nest, and discussed the arrival of that shipful of pitiless sailors in want of animal food. "We will peck them to death tomorrow, my dear." ~ H.G. Wells, War of the Worlds

Disease won that war...

[null and void]

Sure looks like it. Life and bullets are cheap in China.