If Bloomberg stays in the race even after he fails to get the nomination, he can run anti-Trump unlimited TV spots as his own personal contributions to his own personal campaign but to the benefit of Bernie Sanders. Much depends on whether the diminutive white knight of Wall Street and Goldman Sachs fears Trump more or less than Bernie Sanders. That is another way of asking, who is the greater threat to the trillions being carved by China investors hollowing out America?
My supposition is that the rest of the field will limp along toward extinction but their very presence will leave the field of opponents to Bernie so diffuse that he, like Trump four years ago, will avoid a brokered convention and easily win the nomination as his adversaries drop off one by one. That is, Elizabeth Warren (whom I counted out before her revival), Amy Klobuchar (whom I counted out as a candidate devoid of charisma before her revival), Pete Buttigieg (whom I am counting out now), and Joe Biden (the only candidate I correctly counted out early and who has never had a political pulse detectable anywhere except in national polls), will limp along while their money holds out but probably not past South Carolina and certainly not past super Tuesday.
I think Bernie Sanders, despite the fact that he can reasonably be called Bolshevik Bernie, is the most formidable of the Democrat field. He exudes authenticity which is so patently lacking in candidates like Warren and Bloomberg. He has demonstrated charisma, unlike the stolid Klobuchar and the zombielike Biden. He is unflappable and more agile under tough questioning than even Buttigieg. He has the aura of it being his time after he was so cruelly denied last time.
I continue to believe that, absent a black swan event such as a financial crash due to coronavirus, Trump will win with a good chance of retaking The House. If the economy crashes because of the coronavirus, Trump must be seen to have gotten in front of that risk or he will be blamed for all its miseries. It matters not how unfair that judgment might be, the Democrats will holler and scream that the coronavirus is Trump's Hurricane Katrina. Not after the contagion leaps to our shores but when that calamity shall appear inevitable to our medical team, the president will have to address the nation and be seen to be taking charge.
The first casualty of the coronavirus is likely to be a downturn in the stock market followed by a tapering off of the GDP. Casualties will increase if the virus comes and our healthcare system could easily implode as China's is. Worse, supply of medicines from China, the supplier on whom we are almost wholly dependent, are likely to be cut off. This could easily occur this spring or summer turning the election Bernie's way if the president is not vigorous and seemed to be proactive in getting in front of this potential pandemic. He must walk a fine line between appearing to be a resolute leader and avoiding public panic.
Trump has much in his record to point to in defense of his presidency and much to point to in defense of the country against a Chinese virus. If the virus comes, if the stock market crashes, if medicines are not forthcoming from China, if many jobs are lost, Trump, pointing to that record, can easily be seen to advantage as the man to lead the country rather than barking Bernie.
