Posted on 02/26/2020 5:36:54 AM PST by yesthatjallen
Exactly my point.
china’s actions indicate this is much worse there than their official numbers. they have done terrible harm to their economy overthis - this isn’t 2k dead.
there are multiple reasons this might be worse in china than the west. a big one is the sars vaccine having sensitized part of their population to subsequent coronavirus-type infections. 2nd would be crazy levels of pollution (lung damage).
3rd would be time. we will have a better view on this in a few weeks.
I am worried by the SCMP article saying it wasn’t a seafood market incident.
they aren’t getting ready to confess anything was their fault, imho. this is setting up a narrative to blame a 3rd party, and the only possible response to such a narrative is to go to war with the country they blame.
Makes ya wonder if Georgia Girl 2 might be Joe Biden’s secret screen name.
Yep. Or “Mission accomplished”.
Give it 6 weeks to see if any extra deaths are in NYC.
LOTS of chinese in Queens. Most chinese expats of any place outside of China.
It took China 6 weeks for this to really get a foothold. We’re still in the first part of the first inning.
Chinese media, inside china is blaming the US for this.
Telling chinese people that ‘we’ modified the coronavirus with ebola fragments to selectively kill only Han chinese.
That’s a very very dangerous road to go down for them...and they went there anyways.
If what they have been doing is downplaying I don’t want to see their version of hype. That would make people start killing their children to save them from a fate worse than death.
yes. the overall picture is so worrisome it is beyond words. this could start something far more horrific than it already is.
I am not an alarmist at all. But I have been watching this since the very start. Instead of “listening” to what governments are saying, I am watching what they are doing.
I made a good living in the Emergency Management world, and doing Operational Risk Management.
What I am seeing on a grand scale is “Look at my left hand...” But what I am seeing with their “right hand” does not seem “proportionate.”
So either the CCP is really, really, really over-reacting, or this thing is worse than what they are saying.
I have to believe that the US Intelligence people are on the ground and certainly in the air. I would love to know what they know.
My greatest concern is that our Government KNOWs what this is, and what is really going on. AND, they will lie directly to our faces until they have a solution. Really, it is the ONLY alternative that makes any strategic sense.
Here is my logic on this:
1. Lots of people are sick in China.
2. It is a fair guess to assume that there are more people sick in China than they are letting on because they are closing down so much of their economy. They would close it down to either protect their people, or to ensure there is not wide spread rebellion.
3. I think ALL information coming out of china is suspect. they are trying to suppress “something.”
4. There IS a defined disruption in the supply chain coming out of China. Cargo shipments are down 1.4 million twenty foot containers over last month. The Kia plant in Korea was shut down due to lack of parts from China. SOMETHING is stopping production and transportation in China.
5. The Koreans are responding disproportionately to this thing if it were “just the flu.”
6. The State Department is responding disproportionately to this, if it were no worse than “the flu.”
7. The Italians are responding disproportionately to this if “it is just the flu.”
The list can go on. I present those statements in a way that I was trained to assess risk: dispassionately, and constantly asking “why” and who does it affect. (Not who benefits because I don’t care about placing blame.)
I put together the pieces last week when the dRam provider for Samsung shut down their factory in Korea. Upon seeing that I shorted the market. I was rewarded for three days due to that (not big bucks...but about an 11-15% return in a day.)
I always assume there are people smarter than me looking at these pieces—having access to information you and I would never “admit” to having.
I also rely on my Emergency Management experience in logistics and hospital network operations for a cluster of hospitals. The sparse information coming out of there is not optimistic. Weeks ago when this first started, I mentioned on a thread that I could “see” people in my old offices taking the binders off the shelves and dusting them off. What I hear is that they are off the shelve, being read, and adjusted for changes. That has piqued my interest.
So, I am not running around with my hair on fire. I am not panicked. I live in an area that routinely gets knocked off the grid at least once a winter for several days. Being cut off doesn’t frighten me, and I am not afraid of getting sick and dying. The numbers do not reflect that at all. Even the “bad” numbers in Italy and Iran don’t reflect that.
There is a big difference between worry and concern.
Now, thinking “risk management” and Emergency Response to this, here are my thoughts on what the President will do:
1. He will say this is no worse than the flu.
2. He will say to wash our hands.
3. He will say we don’t need to hoard gloves and masks (we don’t.)
4. He will say that have a great EM system in this country and that the “best people...really excellent people” are working on this.
5. He will mention Xi has it under control—he will reference the slow growth of cases (without referencing the change in case-count-methodology.)
6. He will say we are working on vaccines right now.
Those things are all true.
What he should say is that we have 8,000 people in self quarntine in CA. But no human to human contact. That means its contained (scary, but good.)
He should say that this is coming. But stress the statistics, which are good.
He should put in travel restrictions for any place that has an outbreak (Korea, Italy, etc.)
He should ensure everyone that cargo will ship and will be tested and it will be safe.
He should demonstrate what we know about China through intelligence reports. Would it be a shock that we have satellites over China? I don’t think so. Show us what is going on.
He should demonstrate how he, Xi, Kim, Abe, and the President of Korea are in constant contact and working together.
I doubt he will say or do any of those things. I doubt he will admit its already here.
I doubt he will address the horrible testing situation. And the reason is, if you don’t test...you cannot confirm. If there is no treatment, why bother. Is it better for the US to think there are (39 or 54...I dont recall) cases in the US, and not test? The people watching this and reporting it are too focused on Bernie, Chuck, and Nancy.
Should he have Chuck and Nancy with him on the stage? Not yet. Not until it is publicly here and spreading.
Finally, it is here. People contact me from the daily thread live—every day. People who’s names you would recognize. People in my own family still “in the business” contact me from up and down the East Coast.
It is here. There are people self quarantining. In small groups. Ones and twos. It is not public and its not going public for Hippa reasons. It doesn’t have to if the cases are mild and these folks do what they are told.
But its here. And people should be concerned. Not panicked.
And I honestly believe in my heart that Trump is being told the absolute best thing that he can do is stand up in front of the people, tell the things he can...and lie his ass off about the rest. It will give them time to prepare and practice.
I cannot imagine what the large urban areas would look like in a panic. He has to avoid that at all costs.
I know its a long answer, and it should be read in a calm tone as if you are in a briefing. The closest I have come to inciting panic is telling people to buy one extra meal for their family every week and store it away. If this doesn’t happen, they can skip shopping in a few weeks.
That is all anyone needs to do.
Spring is right around the corner. As a matter of fact, here in East Tennessee it is already here.
Spring will end the virus spread
That is as great,non mainstream, piece of information. Did you post it to the other thread?
Yes it is.
Viruses generally do not like warm humid climates. Unless you are in Singapore, Iran, or Italy.
Also, the Spanish flu went away in the spring of 1918. Then it came back and killed most of its victims that next winter. (My years may be off, but it was a two year pandemic.)
I hope you are right. It just doesn’t seem to be operating that way yet.
I think I did yesterday?
‘but muh hype to get trump’.
etc
Yes, I’m weak. I bought 2 bottles of dish detergent when I went to the store. If there’s a shortage it’s my fault.
“perhaps you and Mariner can team up....”
What is your bitch with me that you drag me into a thread I had not previously posted on?
Is there something you’d like to say directly?
“perhaps you and Mariner can team up....”
What is your bitch with me that you drag me into a thread I had not previously posted on?
Is there something you’d like to say directly?
The problem of infectious respiratory disease can be viewed from a different direction.
I can unequivocally state that more Americans will contract and die from pneumonia while in hospitals than from the corona virus, probably world wide. If you are old and go to a hospital, there is a good chance that in your weakened bed ridden condition in the winter that you are in danger of contracting pneumonia.
Even though pneumonia can be cured, your otherwise weakened condition might allow the pneumonia to prevail.
As I have said a millions times, this is not about dying.
It’s never been about dying.
It’s about the system becoming overwhelmed and then stopping.
I wish people would think beyond the “getting sick” stuff.
I understand your point.
I have seen a friend die of pneumonia when a great hospital develops a pneumonia problem that grows to some point near being on the verge of out of control, overwhelmed if you will.
Ordinary pneumonia seems more likely to get out of control before the corona virus
BTW, I believe that pneumonia is the actual cause of death of many people who contract corona virus.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.