Posted on 08/08/2020 3:21:36 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update # 143
As of 08/07/2020 23:15 PDST United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information3
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Fatalities
Fatalities rose 101 cases from the previous day, to come in at 1,299. That was
an 11.45% decrease from last week's Friday.
Global and Domestic New Case Declarations
Global New Cases came in slightly less than the week before, at 282,070. That was
a 2.45% drop from the week before.
U. S. New Cases were down 11.08% from last week, coming in at 63,201 Testing came
in at 759,753 compared to the 1,072,104 the week before. That was a 29.1% drop
from the week before.
New Trend in Lower Declared Cases and Testing in the U. S. Continues
While testing did remain in the mid 700k range yesterday, that was still low
by recent standards. It was 29.1% lower than the same day the week before. This
new trend has been ongoing eight days as of yesterday.
Yesterday's New Case Declarations came in 11.08% lower than the same day the week
before, and the lower testing is part of the reason why.
Some of you will remember about three weeks back when I was mentioning the much
higher testing that was taking place in that time frame. All of a sudden our
daily New Cases shot up. That testing was part of the reason why. It's not a
trashing of the higher level, as much as trying to let folks know it wasn't simply
because the spread of the disease was getting worse. You test twice as many people,
you're likely to find twice as many New Cases.
Here we are going in the opposite direction. Testing is slacking off for whatever
reason, and so New Case numbers are falling. Again I mention this to alert folks
not to adopt a false impression. The falling New Case declarations now, are not
solely due to an improving infectious environment. Testing is off by a certain
percent, so naturally not as many New Cases are being detected.
This is not a criticism of testing. It's about seeing the situation for what it
truly is.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America
Here we go...
The rise in New Cases is the interesting thing here. Even if that rise though
this week's Friday number was 11.08% lower than last Friday.
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here are more of our numbers...
Active Cases continued with normal growth yesterday. A couple of times this week
their numbers actually fell.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our slice of the pie has been increasing recently.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.
For three days now, e're momentarily seeing better numbers here. Would like to
think this will continue, but I'm not convinced of it.
Active Cases in the United States / Chart
Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.
Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.
Back in early June, I was hoping we were finally seeing the light. Welllll...
not exactly. Look where we've gone from there. Now the red seven-day averaging
line is beginning to resemble the same flattening from that June period. I hope
that matures with the U. S. making a good go at defeating this disease.
Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup
Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.
Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.
Testing levels were off 29.1% from the previous week yesterday. I point to the
single day testing postive rates in the next to the last column on the right.
They bounce around a lot day to day.
From the 3rd to the 4th, we had a 3.40% increase in test positives. I would like
to know the reason these postive numbers can morph so much running that many
tests on essentially the same body of people. Down 2.1% one day, up 3.4% the next
and then down 1.0% the next after that.
It doesn't make me trust the testing all that much. With Contract Tracers now
becoming the next big thing, a lot hinges on whether your test was accurate or not.
Look at how that single day positive rate jerks round day to day. Ridiculous.
The three day averaging line there moved up slightly yesterday. It was essentially
flat though, since it was so minimal.
The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
Okay, I believe we are seeing an ever so slightly beginning of a move toward
flattening there on that top blue Declared Cases line. The numbers have indicated
this type of move for seven days now. It should show up more prominantly here if
this continues for a few more days.
The red Active Case line is showing some improvement there also. It has been
partially hidden, and is emerging mor flattened out. Would like to see that
continue and improve.
United States Movers and Shakers...
I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.
Here we go...
This should help us keep track of our most "on fire" (figuratively) states.
California and Texas took the ominous lead yesterday.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
New Cases came in very high yesterday.
Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
Active Cases grew at a normal pace yesterday in this region.
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Let's see...
Yesterday we had a new record for this category. Today the numbers dropped back
a bit.
Yesterday's numbers fell off a bit from Thursday. The Global Scene was still in
very high territory, while the numbers in the U. S. were more moderate by
recent standings.
That blue line is dropping off recent highs. That is the current trend
and I'm hopeful it will continue. Of course that belies the fact our testing is
down so this is likely somewhat artificial rather than a clear breakthrough.
. The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart
As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.
Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)
Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
Spain continues to spike upwards in its New Cases, and it seems to be getting
stronger, not weaker. All these nations are seeing their recent case declarations
rise. Several other nations have seen a noticable rise in recent days. Are they
about to go the way of Spain?
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?
Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
Sweden's New Case level had been moderating, but we can see a bit of an upturn
back to old habits there, so to speak. I was hoping we had seen the worst of it.
Looks like the Netherlands is making a move there also, and in the wrong direction.
Global Movers and Shakers...
I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.
Here we go...
The United States took both categories yesterday. WE don't see that all the time,
but it does happen more often than I'd like.
There is now a U. S. version of Movers and Shakers above, so you can easily see
which states are having the hardest time on the day of the Update.
Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.014% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved<, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
We moved into the 67.0% zone of the Resolved Case rate. It looks as if 68.0%
might be soon to follow. That being said, our rise has slowed to a snail's
pace over the last three days.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
The Serious/Critical case Load has improved over the last week. That
light grey number on the far right denotes some activity in Mainland China
starting eight days ago. Not taking it to mean much more than that there is
some activity going on in China, that isn't being fully reported, AGAIN!
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Here is the data for four entities...
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.
Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
Fatalities rose in the U. S. yesterday, and fell off a bit on the Global Scene.
Yesterday's figure was down 11.45% from the same day last week.
Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.
Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.
Fatalities fell off a little yesterday. From the week before we were down 11.45%.
This chart pretty well tells the story. Higher highs and higher lows... There
seems to be a move heading lower right now. That was reflected here minimally.
In coming days, I hope to see that become more pronounced. None of us know for
sure though, so we continue to hope for the best and check the numbers.
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.
Even though these stats aren't as some we have seen recently, we're still doing
a bit better than we were.
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
It's hard to belive there are that many nations with 1,000 cases.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.
And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
If we look at this week's first four days represented in this chart, the light blue
column on the right reveals three out of four days numbers failed to set a new
record for the day. That is a big change from a few weeks back when we had set
new records for nearly every day over a two month period. Now we're seeing not
only a pause in growth, but a retraction from recent highs. We're by no means
going radically lower, but changing from six weeks of roughly ten to 15% growth
each week, these numbers have now actually retreated 3.36% for a weekly average
just last week.
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.
There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.
These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.
After a few days in 18th place in this category, we fell back to 19th yesterday.
Section: 10
Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers
Listed in the order of current utilization...
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, Nations219,
and the CDC Provisional Counts53
Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
If only could post more data.
Sheesh, my hair hurts just looking at that.
Please also post and categorize all death counts of all causes of deaths other than Covid. Thank you.
Hmm. About the same number of tests have been taken by Americans (63 million) as the number of people that the average American thinks has been sick with COVID.
Public perception doesn’t square with virus reality, consultant’s survey shows
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3872636/posts
On July 10 Florida started posting the data on number of people in hospitals with a primary diagnosis of covid.
On July 22 Florida posted the peak number of 9,562 people in hospitals with a primary diagnosis of covid.
Today, August 8 Florida posted there were 6,890 people in hospitals with a primary diagnosis of covid.
Along with other data I believe we can safely say that the surge in covid cases in Florida beginning mid-June has ended.
On June 15 FDA revoked the EUA for hydroxychloroquine.
Since we look at the covid data every day, I find it interesting that the second surge in covid cases, hospitalizations, and deaths happened soon after June 15.
https://www.fda.gov/media/138945/download
June 15, 2020 Update: Based on ongoing analysis and emerging scientific data, FDA has revoked the emergency use authorization (EUA) to use hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine to treat COVID-19 in certain hospitalized patients when a clinical trial is unavailable or participation is not feasible. We made this determination based on recent results from a large, randomized clinical trial in hospitalized patients that found these medicines showed no benefit for decreasing the likelihood of death or speeding recovery. This outcome was consistent with other new data, including those showing the suggested dosing for these medicines are unlikely to kill or inhibit the virus that causes COVID-19. As a result, we determined that the legal criteria for the EUA are no longer met. Please refer to the Revocation of the EUA Letter and FAQs on the Revocation of the EUA for Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate and Chloroquine Phosphate for more information.
I haven’t checked recently, but if I remember correctly,
all deaths related to flu-ike symptoms are touched on
in the cdc Provential page linked in this upate.
Amen.
Thanks so much for all of this.
Tatt
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