Based on the low ratings of the DNC and the 4 point bump for Trump during the DNC, I find it hard to believe that the Dems will get anywhere near the same voter turnout for Biden, as they had for Clinton.
Posted on 08/23/2020 5:05:14 PM PDT by dpwiener
i have taken yougov polls.
they don’t walk left...they gallop left
California, NY, WA, OR, etc. conservative voters: your vote matters because the other side assigns presidential legitimacy and justifies resistance and rebellion, treason, civil war, based on winning the popular vote.
Also, if the polls are very skewed we might win some! Didn’t expect to win the midwest last time and it would be stupid to tell the other side when a state is actually winnable.
Don’t let the other side win without a fight.
That was an imprecise statement on my part. More accurately, my vote won't affect the outcome in California. Biden will still win California by several million votes, albeit less than Hillary's 4.3 million winning California margin in 2016.
However, my vote matters as a symbolic expression of my political preferences, and as a continuation of my unbroken record of voting in every election since 1970 when I first became eligible to do so.
It DOES matter. Vote anyway.
Even with “weightings” done “right,” polls are total garbage.
The two most accurate pollsters of 2016, Cahaly at Trafalgar and Baris at People’s Pundit (the ONLY two to have Trump winning MI and PA) both say that they are having tremendous trouble getting obvious Trump supporters to go on record. Baris gave me an example of a store owner he knows who pulled all MAGA/Trump material cuz he didn’t want his windows smashed in. They have had people tell them, before they start the poll, “I’m for Trump, but I’m not going to say so officially anywhere.”
So I think Trump always has +5 in any poll.
The Marxist Media polls have always grossly oversampled the Demon-crats. D +11.6 is a joke, because it's greater than what happened in 2008 and 2012. Does CBS really think that many more Demon-crats to Republicans will vote? Calling these polls propaganda is better for the Marxist Media than the alternative, which would be that they are flipping morons.
Your analysis is right on and only proves what I said would happen. This poll is a push poll and is illegitimate. The DNC Convention was a bust and the media is pulling out the stops to stave off disaster.
Any policy preference you might have for Jorgensen over Trump is virtually irrelevant without the ability to implement her agenda. If Trump’s election taught us one thing, it’s that finding someone who has the ability to implement policy is more meaningful than voting for someone who may say all the right things but is incapable of making any of it happen.
Trump is the only one out there, at this point in our history, who has the smarts, cunning, and independence to take on the deep state and dismantle it. Jo Jorgensen would get rolled by her political opponents and the deep state.
Prop 22 is on the ballot. It would repeal AB5.
Having written that, Biden has TV ads running in NYC, which is a bit shocking and the reason is, is that internal GOP polling in NY state has Biden with a 5 point lead, which is almost unbelievable.
If you don't trust polls, just pay attention to where ads are being run. That will tell you more than any poll.
This poll is under sampling Republicans at only 29%, independents at 30% and over-sampling Democrats at 40%. It’s also way over sampling female voters. . . then they further put their statistical thumb on the scale by weighting Democraps and women voters more.
Thanks for the analysis. I hope you win your bet.
I happened to watch tonight’s CBS Evening News—I never watch network news, we just left it on after the local news. Of course the blond woman anchor (a Mika twin) spewed her anti-Trump take on the plasma announcement and later then threw in “our CBS poll shows Biden with a ten point lead.” No internals or breakdown of their methods. So anyone watching thinks Biden is winning and Trump is losing. Maddening.
People tend to trust polls whose results they like, and distrust polls whose results they dislike.
Just wait until the blacks find out that Harris is more white than black.
There hasn’t been a partisan gap between D-R of more than ten points since 1980. So yes we’re probably looking at a dead heat race right now.
Yes it is true that the phone numbers are randomly generated, but that doesn’t mean the people who respond constitute a random sample, meaning the correct proportion of Republican, Democrat and independent voters. The pollsters have to correct for this bias, but how do they know what the true ratio of R’s, D’s and I’s wiil be in this election? It is a very difficult problem and also create an easy means for a dishonest pollster to skew their polls.
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