Because Armenia and Azerbaijan sit side by side on what Russia considers its southern periphery, Russia has worked to keep the dispute between the two from flaring up. Russia sees nothing but negatives for two countries on its southern border to be in conflict. Russian efforts have been working well, until now.
Erdogan is a definite factor in the change in mood in Azerbaijan.
Armenia is squeezed between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
If Turkey were to mobilize against Armenia, across the border they share, I think Putin would step in.
Instead of supporting Turkey on that, I think the appropriate reaction of NATO should be to throw Turkey out.
I expect, shortly, to see Putin provide more direct military aid to Armenia, not by attacking anything in Azerbaijan itself, just in beefing up Armenia’s own abilities. I expect Putin to include in that a notice to both Erdogan and Azerbaijan that its support to Armenia can go much, much further unless Erdogan pulls out its support to Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan pulls back.
NATO should give the same message to Erdogan.
Totally agree.
Turkey under Erdoo has no place in NATO.
I’m no fan of Putin, but he is not dumb.
Turkey? Will remain rogue until some one or group of someones say enough and ends the threat.
I suspect that expansionist Erdogan would very much like to take over (annex) Armenia directly, or install a puppet (satrap) Government there - if it could somehow overcome or evade their Russian support.
Another chip on the table, in their growing string of Military confrontations.
Even if there is no chance of taking Armenia directly, this might be a wedge issue to pry away Azerbaijan (and it’s oil and gas) from Russia.