Reading the threads from the other side, especially Silver et al, it’s like we’re (or they’re) on a different planet. They are saying that Rs need at least a 300K lead to be even! A +2 or +3 R electorate wont’ cut it.
I suppose they believe that based on their polls where 10-15% of Rs are voting for Biden and they are winning NPAs by 20 points and more.
Live by the polls; die by the polls.
“Live by the polls; die by the polls.”
Nate NEEDS the polls to be right or he is screwed.
2 elections in a row.
2016 was Trump with 89% of the GOP vote. That has to come from exits since it is a secret ballot.
Hillary got 90% of Dem votes. 1% diff.
Trump got a 4% edge with Indies.
That’s all from exits.
So basically they are asking for a 4% move in each parameter, R’s voting Biden, 4% more Ds voting Biden and about a big move in Indies away from Trump.
Point being re exits, Trump with 85% of Repubs is only a 4% move from 2016.