“Based on previous experience with SARS2003 and MERS2012, we should expect immunity to last between 1 and 3 years.”
Did you see the (unreviewed, unpublished) Scottish study that Cathi posted at #27?
It seems to indicate a rapid fading of protection - declining in weeks 5 and 6 (as measured by likelihood of being hospitalized with COVID). They looked at Pfizer and AZ.
It does not seem to jibe with other indicators, but I find it troublingly short.
I wonder if anything has come out of Israel, for the weeks after full vaccination?
All the studies I have seen so far show declining duration. And none of the scientists I have read expect immunity to last between 1 and 3 years. Most have suggested months.
Pfizer during an investors conference call last week indicated that they expect annual revax and potentially a 3rd booster shot. Of course that info was provided in the context of earnings expections...:-)
I have seen only one data point on duration out of Israel (about a month old.) I can’t link it because it was a screen shot of a graph. But, it showed high (over 95%) peak efficacy ten days after the second dose, slipping slightly over the next 10 days, but still over 90% and then further slippage to 87% during the final 10 days. They have offered no further info past the 35 days post vax.
I found the more concerning info in the second link to the German study I posted. 31.3% of elderly showed no detectable neutralizing antibodies compared to 2.2% in younger group.
They have told us all along that the elderly have less adverse effects from the vax. The data so far in several studies indicating that they get less efficacy may explain the less adverse effects.
Haven’t seen anything out of Israel so far, but I’m sure we will over the coming months.
The original clinical trial participants are still tracked. The first doses of COVID-19 vaccines were given over a year ago (March 16, 2020). To date, I’ve seen no published research to indicate that they’re any worse off today - in terms of COVID-19 risk - than they were after inoculation. Unless and until there’s published, verified data to the contrary, file it under fear-inspiring noise.