COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review (19 Nov, 2021)

CDC ^ | 19 Nov, 2021 | CDC

[BeauBo]

The current 7-day moving average of daily new cases (88,482) increased 16.1% compared with the previous 7-day moving average (76,223)...

68.7% of the total U.S. population, have received at least one dose of vaccine. About 195.6 million people, or 58.9% of the total U.S. population, have been fully vaccinated...

99.5% of people ages 65 years or older have received at least one dose of vaccine and 86.2% are fully vaccinated. More than three-quarters (81.7%) of people ages 18 years or older have received at least one dose of vaccine and 70.7% are fully vaccinated...

New Hospital Admissions: The current 7-day daily average for November 10–November 16, 2021, was 5,456. This is a 5.4% increase from the prior 7-day average (5,176)...

The current 7-day moving average of new deaths (1,032) has decreased 2.4% compared with the previous 7-day moving average (1,058).

[BeauBo]

COVID case numbers in the USA have been heading back up since the end of October. Our curve is looking like the UK curve for their Delta wave - up quickly for about two months, then dropping in half, and gradually climbing from there. Our rise in cases might be enhanced by the advent of Cold & Flu Season, which seems favorable to COVID-19.

States/Territories like Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas; that were hit hard earlier in the Delta wave, are now generally low, and not now showing significant rises (Kentucky and Arkansas are up a bit though).

States in the Upper MidWest, Mountain Time Zone and NorthEast that did not have big Delta waves earlier (like Colorado, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Utah and Vermont) seem to be accounting for more of the recent rise.

US Cases

US Hospitalizations

US Deaths (The number of reported deaths in the USA has been relatively higher than the UK, during the Delta waves)

[Sacajaweau]

Do more testing and you’ll get higher numbers. It’s all about percentages....not just number of cases. How many folks are getting into hospitals with the sniffles?

[Donnafrflorida]

Well I turned 65 yesterday. Not sure I ever fell ino the .5 percent of anything.

[BeauBo]

I find that 99.5% (of people 65+ with at least a first shot) kind of hard to believe.

Maybe they are erroneously counting some booster shots as new people.

[Fai Mao]

Thanks for posting these.

[BeauBo]

“Do more testing and you’ll get higher numbers.”

(from the linked CDC report) “The 7-day average number of tests reported for November 5 – November 11, 2021, was 1,396,881, up 4.0% from 1,342,728 for the prior 7 days.”

In addition to more tests, they also report a higher percentage of positive results (6%, up from 5.1% the week before).

It seems that the usual lag between changes in case numbers, and hospitalizations and deaths is tracking; with hospitalizations already inflected back up, and deaths likely to follow suit soon.

[phoneman08]

Here’s the latest Pfizer booster data: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-11-19/02-COVID-Perez-508.pdf

The stark difference in efficacy is clearly shown in the chart on page 18.

Cases are quite low here in Georgia at present. I’m not sure if I want to get boosted seven months out, or wait a while and see if cases start climbing again.

[lightman]

Going the wrong way in PA:

https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2021/11/pa-covid-19-barometer-turns-darker.html

“Pennsylvania’s positivity rate for COVID-19 tests rose to 11.7% for the seven days ending Thursday, a continuation of a recent disappointing trend.

It’s up from about 8% recently and more than double the 5% level considered a sign of significant spread.

The number of new COVID-19 infections in Pennsylvania is also accelerating, with 4,545 more confirmed cases in the week ending Thursday than during the previous week, according to new figures posted Friday afternoon on Pennsylvania’s early warning dashboard.

The average daily number of hospitalizations rose by nearly 300 from the previous week.

As of early Friday, Pennsylvania hospitals were caring for 3,095 COVID-19 patients, several hundred more than a few weeks ago, when hospitalizations as well as new cases were declining.

Hospitalizations, although headed in the wrong direction, remain about half the level of Pennsylvania’s worst surge, which peaked in late 2020. More than 2,100 regular beds and 500 intensive care beds were available Friday, according to state health department data.

Pennsylvania registered 96 new COVID-19 deaths on Friday, raising its pandemic toll to 32,825.”

“Positivity rate” (whatever that means, with ginned up “tests”) and hospitalizations have both increased by 10% over the previous week.

[BeauBo]

COVID Update Ping.

[BeauBo]

“the latest Pfizer booster data”

They report high effectiveness for their booster (about 95%).

Personally, I got Pfizer, but have not gotten a booster yet (low risk). I am toying with the idea of getting a J&J booster, for a little variety in my immune response. Also, I saw some reports that J&J effectiveness, although initially lower, did not show waning effectiveness over time, like Moderna and Pfizer.

[traderrob6]

Think I’m going to forgo the booster. I’m 64 with a few heart issues but feel the shot is potentially a greater risk and questionably effective (ieIsrael documentation).

Still taking Quercetin, Zinc, Vitamin D, Tonic water, Vitamin C though and have Ivermectin paste on hand if it becomes necessary.

[BeauBo]

“Still taking Quercetin, Zinc, Vitamin D, Tonic water, Vitamin C though and have Ivermectin paste on hand if it becomes necessary.”

I have not gone for a booster either, as I am reasonably low risk, and have had two Pfizer shots. I also do Zinc, D and C regularly.

In case of symptoms, I also keep a stock of tonic water and the Ivermectin paste on hand (as well as famotidine/Pepcid and melatonin, which were given to President Trump during his infection).

I am almost looking forward to finally getting it, and getting it over with, even though there is never a really good time for it.

[phoneman08]

I’m very curious as to how long the efficacy lasts for people getting the third dose. Does it wane in six months? Or does it prove to last much longer effectively making the vaccine a three-dose regimen? It’ll be a few months before we see some data in that regard.

The state has reopened nursing homes to unlimited, inside visitation at nursing homes. There’s frequent testing done, and most residents are boosted and many are three dose and recovered. The staff is another matter. So if I get the all-natural booster, that is where I’ll probably get it.

[ransomnote]

[Paul R.]

Thanks!

I’d just logged in to see if you’d posted an update. ;-)

Germany is an interesting situation, with cases seriously spiking.

Germany 11/05/2020 7 day avg. cases = 18,337
Germany 11/18/2020 7 day avg. fatalities (2 week lag) = 192
CFR = 1.05%

Germany 11/18/21 7 day avg. cases = 43,985
Germany 11/18/21 7 day avg. fatalities (2 week lag) = 202
CFR = 0.46%

This does not account for Delta being more deadly among unvaccinated persons, most likely because with Delta, virions per infection are typically higher, and, Delta typically “comes on” faster: That narrows the window for a person to get, say monoclonals, before their 02 level drops to the point that the monoclonals are contra-indicated.

Conclusion: Cold weather, Delta’s very high R0, and people relaxing mitigation once many are vaccinated, are “exploding” cases. The vaccine shots and better treatments are holding down the CFR — the vaccines much as stated by their mfgr’s and Fauci (although the latter may have slipped a little from script in his statement last winter).

[Mom MD]

thanks!!

[Mom MD]

Large numbers of cases/ hospitalized in Colorado. Still running 82% of hospitalized cases unvaxxed, even higher numbers in ICU.

[DoodleBob]

I said this before, but it seems worth a reiteration - there is likely a SEASONAL DIMENSION to cases and fatalities, and not necessarily a "surge" or a "new strain of the virus".

The majority of deaths in most countries can be attributed to causes that feature a distinct seasonal pattern. The figure depicts the relative monthly frequencies of nine selected causes of death in the United States for women and men combined for the years 1959–2014. The reported number of counts in parentheses in the title of each panel is the actual number of deaths.

Viruses gonna virus. Even non-viruses gonna non-virus.

I know many people have spirited debates on this topic. But I truly believe pursing a policy of eradicating this bug is like the war on drugs...you have successes at the margins but in large measure we get nowhere, liberty is destroyed, lives are lost, and Leviathan grows.

A very likely reality, is that this bug will be with us forever - like influenza, it'll be a highly contagious but more fatal (case fatality rate of about 1.6% vs 0.2% for influenza) and seasonal annoyance.

We need to learn how to live with this thing, AND deal with everyone's approach to this bug and live and let live. Otherwise we will kill ourselves off faster than the virus.

[ransomnote]

Steve Kirsch's group has invited the CDC, NIH, FDA, Fauci et. al. to debate his team's calculated death count of 150,000 deaths post Covid 'vaccination.' Winner takes home 1 million dollars. He sounds serious.

Until then, here's the tiny little sample VAERS puts forth:

[Jane Long]

In case of symptoms, I also keep a stock of tonic water and the Ivermectin paste on hand (as well as famotidine/Pepcid and melatonin, which were given to President Trump during his infection).

---

Well, that is rich.

For months, you’ve been shilling these shots that you’ve taken to *prevent* you from getting China virus, or “being hospitalized” with China virus….yet, you are keeping Ivermectin and tonic (chloroquine) on hand, in case you get it.

Ivermectin and chloroquine. The two things that the FR VPs and FRoctors repeatedly claim are “ineffective” against curing China virus…and, have repeatedly bashed those who’ve promoted the safety and efficacy AND inexpensive and well studied treatment of Ivm.

🙃

And, I agree with you that these (lying CDC) shot numbers, of % of those who’ve received shots, is high.