Just been chatting with a close friend who is Ukranian.
It seems like what has happened is this.
There are two “breakaway” regions in Ukraine - Donetsk and Luhansk.
There have been warring factions in these two regions since at least 2014. Right now the lines of demarcation are roughly right down the middle as far as boots on the ground go.
Putin today said he was going to recognize the lines of demarcation **as they currently exist**.
This turns out to be a move towards **de-escalation**. Had he said he would recognize the regions according to their original borders that would have favored **escalation**. But he did not do that.
Now the sanctions that appear to be announced here are not the “doomsday” sanctions - they are more like “slap on the wrist” sanctions.
So it looks to me (and my friend) that a deal was cut and that the world has stepped back from the precipice.
Seems to me these will have very little effect at all. It just saying something to make it look like they are doing something.
Of course the media will praise Brandon for this “tough action”.
Now the real key. What is the long term impact on ammo prices?
with perhaps a possibility of a side bonus for biden in that he can begin to blame the rising us inflation on the ukraine situation— useless liberal idiots in the usa would in this scenario take up the cry, and use it to deflect criticism of biden economic policy.
Interesting. But who cut the deal? Putin, obviously. But was Zelensky in agreement? If so, what role would the Kiev government play? Would it have to ratify the agreement? So many questions.
Good analysis.
Putin wins and Biden loses. This was always the outcome, regardless of where the lines were drawn. Putin had all the marbles and Biden is sucking his thumb. Biden was never a match, except in his own mind.
If (IF IF IF) what your friend has related, that will be good.
I do not believe that... “distrust and verify”
Sounds like a possible interpretation, have to run it by my local warfare expert, also a friend with family in Kiev.