Thanks for posting. Prediction markets are often wrong (Hillary was heavily favored to win in 2016, for example). Interesting stuff, nonetheless.
“Wagner slight favorites to control Moscow: 54%.”
I wouldn’t mind putting down $1000 saying that Wagner won’t be controlling Moscow.
But thanks to Bidenflation, I don’t have that extra $1000.
“I wouldn’t mind putting down $1000 saying that Wagner won’t be controlling Moscow.”
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I think the odds are pretty good you’d be right. Putin is still holding lots of cards and has more ways to buy/incent loyalty than the upstart Prigozhin does. In the end, paymasters with the biggest rewards system usually win.
The unintended consequence of this revolt could actually strengthen Putin’s hand. Not saying that’s a good thing, just trying to be objective about the situation.