You have ignored the impact of third parties—they will play a major role in this election.
When's the last time a third party got even a single electoral vote? The only way in which 3rd party candidates influence election results is to peel off support for one of the major candidates. RFK Jr. could definitely play that role. Unfortunately, his anti-vaxx views mean he's more likely to attract RINO votes than Rat votes, but we'll see.
The Democratic professionals are absolutely terrified of third parties.
There is a reason why.
What they know is that any third party “buzz” will take place on mass media—the same mass media that Democrats watch and believe while Republicans ignore.