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I was wrong.

My prediction 7 months ago was it would end this or next month.

I imagine Ukraine might last a few more months before they negotiate a deal with the Russians even if that breaks with what we want.

As Russia mobilizes, the relative combat power of Ukraine vs. Russia will tip more and more to Russia’s favor over time (no different than WWII with the Allies vs. Axis). Ukraine at 41, now 28 million people living there, cannot keep up with Russia’s 144 million neither in combat power they can muster, nor in losses they they can sustain in a war of attrition which this has become.

The problem for the West: At this point it’s becoming more and more an issue of warm bodies that can be stuffed into uniforms for Ukraine. Why you have this: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-does-ukrainian-mobilisation-bill-entail-2024-04-11/ More money for more weapons, ammo, etc. helps, but it’s not really where the critical path is anymore.

I seriously doubt that we can keep this going even until the Nov 2024 elections, despite some pundits talking about Ukraine lasting years, and a next Ukrainian counteroffensive... Sad, but in a way funny because of how disattached from reality things have become.

Hey folks, remember all those arguing how the Russian economy will implode and how Ukraine is doing well: https://g.co/kgs/4aUJWFb (Look at it over 1 year if you want to see what is happening - and guess how the Rubble is still doing?)

Also, Russia is now stepping up the damage they are causing to Ukraines infrastructure and industry. This was intentionally not done for the longest time and will sadly for Ukraine have lasting consequences.

Ukraine will lose some more land, little by little, in what amounts to the Russians keeping them under pressure until the give up. Eventually reality will settle in. Whatever deal gets worked out will address the post war relationship, i.e. Russia will want to be sure that Ukraine does not spornsor an insurgency and keep meddling with terrorists. Russia will want assurances regards NATO and Ukraine being a buffer/neutral state. When Ukraine finally “taps-out” Russia will want to be in a position of advantage and able to define the deal. Now it’s just a matter of keeping the pressure on and keep grinding away at Ukraine.