Morale among troops is grim, ground down by relentless bombardment, a lack of advanced weapons, and losses on the battlefield. In cities hundreds of miles away from the front, the crowds of young men who lined up to join the army in the war’s early months have disappeared. Nowadays, eligible would-be recruits dodge the draft and spend their afternoons in nightclubs instead. Many have left the country altogether.
As I discovered while reporting from Ukraine over the past month, the picture that emerged from dozens of interviews with political leaders, military officers, and ordinary citizens was one of a country slipping towards disaster.
Even as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine is trying to find a way not to retreat, military officers privately accept that more losses are inevitable this summer. The only question is how bad they will be. Vladimir Putin has arguably never been closer to his goal.
“We know people are flagging and we hear it from regional governors and from the people themselves,” Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s powerful chief of staff, told POLITICO. Yermak and his boss travel together to “some of the most dangerous places” to rally citizens and soldiers for the fight, he said. “We tell people: ‘Your name will be in the history books.’”
And therefore, Ukraine troops did not stage a daring three-night raid to steal a Russian tank? Yes, morale comes and goes during a drawn-out conflict. That happens.
Lincoln was set to lose the civil war and the election after three years and change. Democrat candidate George McClellan was running on the platform that the war was unwinnable. But then Sherman burnt Atlanta to the ground, and everyone perked up and gave Lincoln a second term.
Sotwo years and change into the war, Ukrainians are battle weary and Russia’s forces are on the front foot. Good thing this raid happened anyway, because it was a small victory that we can still rejoice in, regardless of the “big picture”.