We’ve all seen, over the years, various pollsters are way outside the norm (usually Q to the left and this cycle Ras to the right). Others “made their bones” on being outside (Zogby in 1996 and 2000, Baris and Trafalgar in 2016). This cycle Ras is too high for Trump.
Yes, this is an outlier to be sure.
Don’t get me wrong Trump definitely has the momentum, and yes nearly 2/3 of PA voters rate the economy as BAD (or worse).. But Trump by 10 in PA? even in a 3 way I think that’s a bit of a stretch.
I do believe Trump, absolutely has momentum and should win solidly in a 3 way.. Believe last I checked RFK was polling around 7-8 in the state.
However, on election day, is Trump going to win PA by 10 points ahead of his next closes rival? Well, I could see that, but it would take RFK JR to be polling well above 7% for me to see that happening.
It certainly is possible, Ross Perot’s involvement in 92 and 96 gave Clinton a 10ish point victory in PA both elections , but Perot took 18% of the vote one time and 10% another. Biden is VERY unpopular, and the economy is craptastic... but even with RFK Jr in the race, I’m hard pressed to believe a 10 point win at this point in PA.
It certainly could get there by election day, and I hope it does, because after the 2020 hanky panky in this state, Trump has to win and win HUGE to overcome the malfeasance that will certainly go on again here... This state has done NOTHING to clean up the mess of 2020 and the GOP of PA were and still are active co conspirators to stop Trump.. so Trump needs to win PA and win huge in order to actually get the win, he has to overwhelm the system so badly that they just can’t create enough fraud to counter it. So Trump really needs to be up high single to double digits to be safe to win.
If momentum stays the way it has been going Trump should be able to safely win PA... the real question is what impact will the eventual conviction have, because you know they are going to get a conviction on something and all the polling shows that’s the only thing that might cause folks to reconsider voting for trump... so when they get their conviction, even if its overturned on appeal, will see what happens with the race... but short of that, things stay the way they have been, I’d expect the 2016 map (roughly) with a few additional stated on the low end... If momentum stays the way its going and the conviction backfires, which certainly smells like it is likely to on the Dems, we may be talking about Trump winning states no one is even mentioning.
BIDEN is a disaster, only up 10 or so in DEEP DEEP blue states... if this momentum generally continues, the discussion by election day by people who aren’t trying to pretend what they want is what is actually happening, is going to be, which classically Blue states is Biden even going to be able to hold.
We shall see.