Problem with statistical broad brushes is that if you stick your head in the freezer and your feet in the oven turned to “roast,” you can say with a broad brush that your temperature is normal. So yes, that generalization is stupid, too. Orthodox Jews vote Republican, and they have more babies, who will one day grow up and vote, and they vote in local elections where that 85% national is meaningless. Since presidential elections are by definition both local and national, Jewish votes in New York, if volatile enough, can help determine the outcome of 2024 presidential election, although not standing in isolation. What can really do the Democrats in this year is Trump’s trial. He’s in New York against his will, making lemonade by going out among people he normally wouldn’t be able to reach, such as in Harlem, and he’s well received there. The longer the trial goes on, the stronger his following among blacks and hispanics. The longer the anti-Semitic hate fests go on in elite campuses, the more ambivalent the secular Jewish vote becomes.