[LouD]

By now, they've checked the pasenger manifest to see if any al queda boys might have been on the aircraft, with his baggage in the cargo hold, ticking away, or waiting to be triggered by radio.

Not likely, given the type of damage reported. The engine would not have been damaged by a cargo hold explosion. Most likely scenario is FOD - Foreign object damage, like a bird strike, causing catastrophic failure of the engine, with parts piercing the fuel tank and wing structural elements, as happened with a DC-10 at O'Hare in 1979.

A Stinger is also a possibility, but I've been told by a pilot buddy that they have a difficult time acquiring a turbofan engine as a target, since they do not create a lot of heat, relative to a combat aircraft.

[Trident/Delta]

That is correct. However, there is a much larger heat signature from a low flying (as in taking off) aircraft than one that is in flight. Also, the engines are at nearly full power for a takeoff then throttled back (run cooler) after take off. Given the data, I, for one, would not be overly surprised to see it as a stinger hit. The area just beyond the runway is relativly abandoned. And, there is the small psychological impact that it is an "American" Airlines plane again.

This also begs the question, what is to be gained? A short glimpse at the state of the economy as a result of the groundings from 911 is an indication of the kind of impact that the aerospace industry has on the economy.

I expect that there will be a prononcement of mechanical failure, even though it looks mysteriously like a terrorist hit to me.

Semper Fi

[bvw]

In many catastrohies in highly-engineering systems like jets it takes the coincidence of three or more adverse circumstances to cause the catastrophe.

Flight 587 was heavy. It had 247 passengers and 9 crew on a plane that seats 280. It may have had nearly full tanks.

There was some report of engine trouble, recent maintainence.

It is the season that the canadian geese are migrating.

Someone on FR said this is a mixed vendor engine assembly. The engine is GE, the closely coupled intake fans are French.

[jwfiv]

What you say sounds very reasonable...knowing nothing about the aircraft, I'm way too quick and unqualified to reach a conclusion. I reckon I was expressing my horror, concern, frustration and fears. And anger.