Posted on 11/28/2001 4:13:44 PM PST by HighWheeler
Osama was killed in the first 5 days of the bombing campaign, probably on the first night while night vision technology would still be of added significant value. The U.S. generally knew where Osama was located prior to 9-11, but honed down his local zone of occupation in the 26 days prior to the bombing. Satellites and Predator spy planes were collecting real-time data on the suspected locations of Osama to narrow down the exact location. The Pentagon analyzed the recon photos to narrow the range, then used the bee-hive theory of probable location and confirmation. You can find the most important bee in a hive by finding the vibrant, dense cluster of worker bees surrounding their leader. Even at night, the IR signatures and night vision of the mobile and settled terrorist wanna-bees would create a radiating pattern, with all individuals’ movement and positions generally pointing to Osama’s location.
By waiting 26 days before bombing, a relatively false sense of security would be created for the terrorists. They would have sufficient time, and more importantly, a level of comfort and confidence in them to find Osama and stay near him. The response by terrorist followers to search and find Osama did in effect reveal bin Laden’s detailed position. Weeks were needed to finally settle on bin Laden’s actual position. Prior to bombing, The CIA confirmed his position with Predator drone aircraft and personnel operatives on the ground.
In the first night-time bombing raids, Osama’s entire surrounding Active Zone was thoroughly destroyed all the way out to a miles-wide buffer zone of absolutely no human activity. Bunker busters and conventional bombs fell continually for hours in the Active Zone, laying a continuous encircling carpet of utter destruction from which nothing larger than bacteria could survive. During the bombing runs, heavy jamming of cell phone frequencies made all cell phones and other forms of radio communication used by the terrorists ineffective.
Although nighttime can reveal the positions of explosions, the flash of light lasts only a moment compared with the resulting smoke, which can be seen for 10s of miles and for hours afterwards. By morning, all dense smoke evidence of the night’s bombings were not visible for miles beyond the Active Zone and the encircling Perimeter Zone.
Afterwards, for days later, everything that was detected to be moving or radiating energy inside the Active Zone was surgically struck with Apaches. Satellites and drones transmitted IR photos to assure that any body heat signatures were cold within the Active Zone. To create the illusion that the Active Zone was not necessarily Osama’s location, strikes were conducted all over parts of Afghanistan as a diversion.
Early on October 11, Bush was notified that the energy gradient in the Active Zone was flat, meaning that no bodies were alive, and no forms of electronic radiation were detected. The carefully constructed press conference speech was drafted and delivered stating that the US would "halt air strikes" if the Taliban would hand over bin Laden.
These concentrated air strikes met all 5 objectives and the last 4 Strategies shown above, and intentionally leave bin Laden’s death forever in question. The Active Zone is still maintained under surveillance, and any activity heading toward the Active Zone is stopped. For security and deterrence, several other zones are maintained to mimic the Active Zone.
BTW, if Sabertooth ever gets his sorry ______ over here and posts his Osama Pool, you'll see how much I agree with your theory.(But NOW I'm thinkin' I was off a couple of days?)
I still have that problem with the "OJ Trial" analogy. The Al-Queda organization, we are told, is like an organized crime syndicate. While strategic directives come from the top (OBL), the operational details are left to his capos. OBL is very likely familiar with the American legal system, but it is doubtful that his key subordinates are. And they, after all, are the ones who would be giving him up.
I did not make the OJ trial analogy a consideration of OBL, it is not stated that way, it is a U.S. consideration for bringing him to the U.S. for trial, to understate that we did not want him in the country.
The Al-Queda organization, we are told, is like an organized crime syndicate. While strategic directives come from the top (OBL), the operational details are left to his capos. OBL is very likely familiar with the American legal system, but it is doubtful that his key subordinates are. And they, after all, are the ones who would be giving him up.
If OBL were alive he would be flaunting his presence to this day, just as he was doing immediately after 9-11 (In fact, I suspect the videotape helped expose his actual location). The Taliban responded to Bush within two days with a FU statement. They were still in the USSR defeat mindset, and possibly didn't understand they were facing their own demise. If they were smart, they would have said "Sure! we'll have him to you on Tuesday!" As you can see, Bush was taking a major risk.
Either way, the actual and potential responses of OBL (none) and the Taliban (FU) doesn't undermine any other parts of the argument. The supporting evidence and the potential repercussions of the evidence all point to OBL's death.
I am deeply, deeply "troubled" = NOT worried actually, so much as distrusting or skeptical = by the simple fact that OBL HASN'T been seen, photographed, put on the cell phone, or taped doing anything for so long.
Here we (supposedly) have this super-terrorist (and terrorism DEMANDS public exposure and public acts to maintain itself) .... who is pure and simply invisible.
I can't prove WHY he's invisible, but he's invisible. Dead? trapped underground?
It's more and more likely every day.
I believe Sabertooth is keeping it.
P.S. Good luck, I've already lost unless they find him soon and can say he's been dead and died on 11/28/01.
I was impressed by your fraud analysis last year at this time regarding the goron attempt to take the election in Florida, so I thought you would make a good reviewer of this logic.
OBL hasn't revealed himself at all since immediately after the attacks. There is the strong scent of propaganda on both sides of this war, but I think ours is for offense, and the OBL/Taliban propaganda is for defense.
If he is still alive, he sure isn't making any use of his time and opportunities. I'll bet his cell phone needs recharging too, but the caves don't have any outlets. Such luck.
OBL heads a loose (highly financed, but "unofficial") group of what can only be called "outlaws" - in the truest sense of the word. These are fanatics, highly dedicated - but in different ways.
At least SOME are highly dedicated!
Some will be opportunists who will encourage and demand OTHERS fight forever, but will NEVER choose to die themselves;
Some will be quitters (but who are afraid to quit since they are isolated in Afghanistan - thus they will fight to defend themselves against the Northern Alliance and US)
Some are already wavering (ready to quit as soon as they can sneak out of the cave without themselves getting shot in the back),
And some are so consumed by zealotry that they (like the Japanese in WWII) can only be stopped by death.
So, how does OBL control and remain the military and political and "spiritual leader" of these different people if HE is ONLY seen as a sneaking, timid, cave-dwelling coward who can no longer "influence events" ..... ?
Was OBL himself the actual (physical and military) leader that he is made out to be?
Either he remains in "control" by pure force - not likely, since his "force" is only as effective as his body guard's rifle shot - or he never really had control (only money!) in the first place. Not likely, since if his forces are spearated into different caves, he can't "control" otehr caves and little broken networks of isolated, not-paid, part-time militia.
If it was money, then money can't "buy" this kind of fervor and dedication.
If it were "religion" (hatred of the west and Israel) as the burning flame (the ultimate reason) for these outlaws' CONTINUING will-to-fight (which is the REAL ENEMY that we face!) then .... death of the ultimate extremist leaders is the only thing that will work.
Something else is at work here: OBL (if what are told is correct) isn't in command of any large group of organized militarized "army" any more.....or he is such a religion unto himself that the Taliban is willing to die BECAUSE of him..... Not reasonable either.
Example: If in WWII, we killed Hitler - but DID NOT physically take ovver Germany, the military would keep in control of the country, and the Jewish extermination would as long as Goebbeals, Himmler, and the SS remained in charge of the camps. Goering and Spear Donitz and the other generals could keep the "nation" running as a Nazi empire.
But, if the extremist Nazi leaders (in the SS nad elsewhere were killed) that are the soul and emotion and continued pressure behind the Nazi "religion" of murder, then the army and navy would surrender when faced with military defeat.
Military forces can be defeated. Religious fanatics cannot be defeated except by isolation and death.
If Osama is dead, I don't want the world to know abouit it. Reminds me of an old Hanes TV ad: Osama doesn't say "uncle" until I say Osama says "uncle"
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