[COBOL2Java]

Israel will probably flatten Baghdad in the first 15 minutes if they think a nuclear missile is in bound. Once this fuse is lit, its gonna big a big one.

Precisely. Saddam may be a Clintonesque megalomaniac, but he's no idiot. Do you think he'd be that dumb? Or would he instead just aim a Scud or two?

[El Gato]

Or would he instead just aim a Scud or two?

And how are the Isaeliis supposed to tell what is on the top of that inbound Scud, or even that it is a Scud rather than something with a bit more Ooompf. (The latter is technically possible if you see the early part of the launch trajectory with a suitable sensor.)