Actually, this reminds me of Hitler running around the Wilhelmstrasse in the three days between the invasion of Poland and the British Declaration of War. He was so certain that Chamberlain was bluffing he went in anyway. He figured that his Pact with Stalin would frighten off the Brits. He didn't count on Chamberlain finally growing a pair between his legs. So he ran around the Reichstag trying to find a way out of the box that he was in, and on the third day, he found himself at war. Think of Bin Laden as Hitler, only a very small-time Adolf. He too thought that the American response would be a one-time affair. He had been conditioned to think that way by the actions of the Sink Emperor.
Hitler never counted on a global war. His vainglory overtook his rationality, as the war went on and things got black for Germany. Bin Laden counted on an Islamic uprising, but I don't think he counted on a straight-up state-to-state conflict. And he never believed that his Arab allies would be on the verge of being taken out by a large American land army.
This is not 1914. It is 1939. The Phoney War is over. The "Cut of the Sickle" is about to begin. It is only a question of time and logistics, that's all. But a huge war is coming; I'm talking about division and army level operations here.
Everyone thinks that this will be a small, limited war. But as with the Second World War, the First, and even back to the Peloponnessian War, everyone thought that wars like this could be confined. But statesmen make mistakes and miscalculations. Saddam, the Ayatollahs, the Boy President, and that monument to small potatoes, Yasir Arafat, have made the wrong decision and have backed the wrong horse.
When the histories are written, they will say that it began on a Tuesday in New York.
The Arab World as we have known it since the end of World War II is coming to an end. It may be that this war will lead to a dawn of democracy in the Arab world.
Be Seeing You,
Chris