Monday, 22 April 2002
Labour's Poll Rating Falling
TV3 told its viewers last Monday that Labour is at 56% support and its popularity has been rising all year. In fact, the TV3 poll found just 37% would vote Labour. Labour's support has been falling all year. Why the discrepancy? The pollsters eliminate the "don't know" voters, and the remaining party votes are scaled up, to add up to 100%.
The TV3 poll's raw data shows the number of "don't know" voters has risen to 29% - an extraordinary phenomenon. The "don't knows" have risen from 14% in February 2000. This is also bad news for National, which didn't get 28% of the vote but just 21% - an all-time low.
Usually in election year the number of "don't knows" falls as the election gets closer. The TV3 poll, far from showing the election is a foregone conclusion, shows it is wide open. Selective reporting can slant the news. (See www.act.org.nz/tv3poll.)