Zimbabwe -- Civil unreast looms as govt fails to arrest crisis

PENNILESS and isolated, Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe and his government are not doing much except to police a political and economic crisis which analysts warn could sooner rather than later explode into civil unrest.

Only the seemingly boundless patience of Zimbabweans is so far saving the day for Mugabe and his ZANU PF party, the country’s sole rulers since independence from Britain 22 years ago, the analysts said this week.

University of Zimbabwe (UZ) Institute of Development Studies associate professor Brian Raftopoulos told the Financial Gazette: "The government is unsure what to do, all they are doing is just to police the crisis. Of course it is a bankrupt strategy."

He said the government did not have an answer to the problem of international isolation and illegitimacy after the United States, the 15-nation European Union (EU), the Southern Africa Development Community Parliamentary Forum and the Commonwealth all said it cheated in a presidential election two months ago.

Many Zimbabweans, including ZANU PF itself, have dismissed as futile ongoing talks between the ruling party and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) that could offer the government a window to gain some semblance of international legitimacy were an agreement to be reached between the two parties.

The analysts also noted that the foreign currency-starved government did not have a solution to the fast unfolding humanitarian and food crisis in the country.

The World Food Programme has received only a third of the cereals and other aid it appealed for from donors late last year to feed more than one million starving Zimbabweans.

Aid experts say the slow response to the appeal for food relief is a reflection of Zimbabwe’s growing international isolation over Mugabe’s controversial victory in the March ballot and over his government’s alleged bloated human rights record.

The government also did not have an answer to the fast deteriorating economic crisis, blamed on runaway state spending, and the hardships it spawns both on ordinary Zimbabweans and the business sector alike, the analysts noted.

When Harare commuter transport operators last week hiked fares by about 30 percent, the government responded not by tackling the high costs of importing vehicle spare parts, which were cited by the omnibus operators as the reason for their fare hike.

Instead the government flooded the streets with the police who stopped public buses at roadblocks, ordering bus crews not to charge the new fares.

In a similar fashion, when the National Constitutional Assembly called public protests last month to press the government to democratise Zimbabwe’s flawed Constitution, the government again flooded the streets with armed police and soldiers.

It did not address the constitutional questions which many Zimbabweans and outsiders blame for the country’s governance problems.

A few months ago, state security agents and the army placed milling companies under surveillance as the maize shortage worsened.

An army spokesman told this newspaper at the time that the army was only helping the private milling companies with transport and security.

In fact the police and at times the army have from time to time been used to monitor and suppress sectors of society that are feared might attempt to question the government’s handling of the economic and political crisis.

For example, the main labour movement — the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) — had to seek a court order to bar the police from its meetings.

The police had insisted they should be allowed into ZCTU council meetings to check on whether the powerful umbrella union was only discussing labour and not political issues.

The question, according to Raftopoulos, is: how long will the government be able to hold back swelling public anger by using the police and army to prevent the NCA, the ZCTU and the MDC from organising mass action?

Masipula Sithole, another UZ political analyst, said the deepening economic hardships and food shortages could in fact soon or later spark civil unrest even without incitement from the agitating groups.

"The country is going to face civil unrest whether Morgan Tsvangirai (the MDC leader) or anybody else likes it or not," Sithole said.

"Conditions on the ground are such that the people will not need anyone to call them onto the streets."

As well as the biting shortages of the staple maize meal, Zimbabweans have to contend with spiraling prices of virtually every other commodity on the market. Inflation is running at a high of 113.3 percent and could rise further.

Unemployment is surging beyond 70 percent as the country’s beleaguered businesses and factories fold up due to the worsening economic climate.

More than 400 companies closed in 2000 alone, losing about 10,000 jobs in the process. Figures of companies that shut down last year are not available.

Independent economic analyst John Robertson said the situation would get worse in the coming months.

"Because the government is not taking measures to address the root cause of the economic and political crisis, you can expect the situation to deteriorate further," he noted.

Mugabe wants to exit in a whirlwind of violence, insurrection, blood, tears, and death. As a "Marxist", he knows of no other way to leave this Earth. We should all pray for those poor, pitiful people.

The "government" of Zimbabwe cannot "arrest the crisis." The government IS the crisis. Total social disintigration and mass starvation are the next steps for Zimbabwe. They are inevitable. Lord knows what will then follow.

Congressman Billybob

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Yet the cabal of gangsters and looters ruling Zimbabwe is regarded as sacrosanct by the 'international community'.

The sovereignty of the nation of Zimbabwe is vastly more important than the mere lives of its millions of 'citizens'.

Mugabe is 'legitimate'; snivelling whites and victimized blacks can bleed all over the map and it will change nothing.

Thugs such as Mugabe should be hunted down with dogs and fed to the pigs. That would be justice.

But no, expect to see his petulant mug nibbling the canapes at diplomatic receptions yet to be catered. ;^)

Well said.

The only question that really remains is when the civil war in Zimbabwe will start? Will the opposition wait until Mugabe has killed millions or will someone start now? For the average Zimbabwean citizen the question should be phrased "Do I want to suffer a whole lot before I am killed like ananimal or do I want to risk death by fighting back?" It is a binary choice. The only other possible solution is to get accross a border into another country and that is rapidly losing any viability.

Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown

Bump a 'Ceaucescu Coronation' for King Roberto I. LOL!

Please! Let's be reasonable. There's no call for that sort of civil unrest and anarchy in this day and age...

Give him what Benito Mussolini and Clara Petacci got. Along with his top supporters....

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