Francisella tularensis, the organism that causes tularemia, is one of the most infectious pathogenic bacteria known, requiring inoculation or inhalation of as few as 10 organisms to cause disease. It is considered to be a dangerous potential biological weapon because of its extreme infectivity, ease of dissemination, and substantial capacity to cause illness and death.A World Health Organization (WHO) expert committee reported in 1970 that if 50 kg of virulent F. tularensis was dispersed as an aerosol over a metropolitan area with a population of 5 million there would an estimated 250,000 incapacitating casualties, including 19,000 deaths.
Aerosol dissemination of F. tularensis in a populated area would be expected to result in the abrupt onset of large numbers of cases of acute, non-specific febrile illness beginning 3 to 5 days later (incubation range, 1-14 days), with pleuropneumonitis developing in a significant proportion of cases over the ensuing days and weeks. Without antibiotic treatment, the clinical course could progress to respiratory failure, shock and death.
The overall mortality rate for severe Type A strains has been 5-15%, but in pulmonic or septicemic cases of tularemia without antibiotics treatment the mortality rate has been as high as 30-60%.
Recall that Atta was reported to have asked how much "poisons" the crop-duster would hold.
Early on we got experts saying that crop-dusters would not be a good dispersal method of Anthrax. The intimation was that therefore this wouldn't have happened. Some speculated thereafter that the cropdusters would have been used as suicide bombers.
This assumes that the public "experts" were right.
This also assumes that Qaed would not have tried it anyway, and thought it would work.
And the greatest assumption is that they were planning to use Anthrax in this manner at all.
Inferentially, the interest in crop dusters would indicate that Osama planned to use them in their usual use, spraying insecticides. Look what was found on a computer in Kabul:
... Soon after the African bombings, the computer files show al-Qaida embarking on potentially its most deadly project: the “curdled milk” biological- and chemical-warfare program. A memo written in April 1999, apparently by Zawahri, notes that “the destructive power of these weapons is no less than that of nuclear weapons.”The memo laments al-Qaida’s sluggishness in realizing the menace of these weapons, noting that “despite their extreme danger, we only became aware of them when the enemy drew our attention to them by repeatedly expressing concern that they can be produced simply.” [The Tom Clancy Effect!]
As a first step, the memo suggests, militants must brush up on their reading. The memo gives a detailed precis of an American history of chemical and germ warfare. It lists a catalog of exotic killers, from anthrax to Rocky Mountain spotted fever. [Available from books]
A May 7, 1999, file indicates that by that time, al-Qaida leaders had earmarked $2,000 to $4,000 for “start-up” costs of the program. In a letter dated May 23 and written under one of Zawahri’s aliases, the author reports discussing some “very useful ideas” during a visit to Abu Khabab, the alias of an elderly Egyptian scientist. “It just needs some experiments to develop its practical use.”
Particularly encouraging, the letter in the computer files said, was a home-brew nerve gas made from insecticides and a chemical additive that would help speed up penetration into the skin. The writer said Khabab had supplied a computer disk that gave details of “his product” in a WinZip file, and “my neighbor opened it by God’s will.”
U.S. officials, citing satellite photos and intelligence gathered from local residents, say Abu Khabab experimented with nerve gas on dogs and rabbits at a camp near the eastern Afghan city of Jalalabad. The camp, one of several in the area hit by U.S. bombs after Sept. 11, was known as Abu Khabab in honor of the scientist.
In a letter dated May 26 and stored in the computer under the same alias as earlier correspondence, the author says he was “very enthusiastic” about the Zabadi project and was especially pleased with Abu Khabab’s “significant progress.”
It isn’t clear how far al-Qaida got in making nerve gas. A June 1999 memo found on the hard drive and addressed to “Abu Hafs” — Atef’s alias — gave instructions for building a laboratory, ordering that walls be covered with oil paint and floors with tiles or cement “to facilitate cleaning with insecticides.” But, noted the memo, “construction should not start until electricity is installed.” It also called for evasive action to avoid detection: “Periodically (for example about every three months) one of the locations is to be canceled and replaced by another.”
A progress report complained that the use of nonspecialists had “resulted in a waste of effort and money,” urging the recruitment of experts as the “fastest, safest and cheapest” route. A June 1999 memo said the program should seek cover and talent in educational institutions, which it said were “more beneficial to us and allow easy access to specialists, which will greatly benefit us in the first stage, God willing.”...
And these memos came two years before 9/11. They may have succeeded in their chemical weapon research, using a common insecticide, with an additive, probably also common in the target country, which would avoid a "dispersal" problem of gas which would make it relatively ineffective, but effectively transmited by skin contact.
As I said, anthrax may be a distraction to understanding what use Osama could make of cropdusters. An interesting question is why they didn't carry through. It may have been a plan among many, and Osama chose the WTC option. Or it was planned to be another assymetrical attack on the populace - though it seems to have been the same pilots involved in both, the WTC and the cropduster visits.
I believe Osama contemplated a mass murder of swaths of American cities. I noticed that the press, in a bit of denial mode, rapidly adopted the "Oh, it's OK, Anthrax can't be spread that way" feel-good dismissive explanation.
And, of course, they may have actually done this before, but it failed somehow. Aum Shinrikyo had spread biologicals in Tokyo, on buildings I believe, but they failed. Then they opted for sarin in the enclosed confines of a subway, with effect.
Keep alert. Question all dismissive analyses.
Everyone is so busy discussing Anthrax, my immediate thought went to the cyanide. Perhaps it is not possible to spread cyanide in this manner?