INDIA vs PAKISTAN: AN ANALYSIS OF WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THEY WENT TO WAR (AND WHO WOULD WIN).

[spetznaz]

I saw this article on the web, and found it to be very interesting. However my question is this, why would pakistan engage india if it knows it has no chance of winning?

[A Navy Vet]

"...why would pakistan engage india if it knows it has no chance of winning?"

Islamic myopia.

[Thud]

Pakistan has a lot more nukes than India - perhaps 80-100, as opposed to India's 40-50.

Pakistan need only pop 1-2 Indian cities to cause mass civilian panic and spontaneous evacuation of most of India's other cities, which would utterly collapse India's war effort. Sure the Indians could do it back, but they're on the strategic offensive so mutual collapse would be their defeat. The status quo favors Pakistan.

[Gurn]

I would hope each side expends all possible nuclear rounds on each other.

[kezekiel]

The article also makes no mention of tactical and strategic objectives of the Indians. Is it just to punish Pakistan? To impose a security zone west of Kashmir? To extract terms from Pakistan? None of this is clear, and all are very different objectives.

[montag813]

Pakistan has a lot more nukes than India - perhaps 80-100, as opposed to India's 40-50.

Yes, but who has more Oracle programmers?

[spetznaz]

Actually i was reading up on the nuclear strategic capability of both countries, and although Pakistani nukes can only reach appro. half of india (since India is so darn huge), Indian nukes can reach ALL of Pakistan.

Thus in a nuclear conflagration India would suffer great loss to some of its major cities, but it would survive, albeit wounded.

Pakistan on the other hand would be COMPLETELY destroyed. Destroyed as in nuclear wasteland. Hence the only thing Pakistan would accomplish by engaging India through nukes is killing a few million indians (note India has a population of around a billion....it is second to china). However India would still have the capability to strike back at Pakistan, destroying it completely in the process.

[AzSteven]

My expectation is that it will be a case of India attacking Pakistan in retaliation for muslim terror attacks in India.

The article is pretty on the mark, but from speaking with friends in the defense industry, I have heard that India has badly neglected the concept of air-ground coordination, meaning their ability to support ground actions through air superiority may not be as great as it would appear.

The Pakistanis have apparently paid more attention to that aspect, but their air force will probably be too busy defending urban centers and military facilities to do much CAS.

If India does manage to acheive a major battlefield breakthrough or surprise, I suspect the Pakistanis will feel obliged to use their nukes. India will probably only use their nukes in response to a Pakistani nuclear strike. But I think the more likely scenario is an Indian advance into the disputed Kashmir region, followed by a stalemate and a negotiated peace in a few weeks.

Thing to lookout for; an Indian victory is almost certain (IMHO) to be followed up with a fundamentalist uprising in Pakistan. If that happens, I think the fundamentalists will succeed, and the overall world situation will not be the better for it.

[Mitchell]

why would pakistan engage india if it knows it has no chance of winning?

See this Atlantic Monthly article. It was discussed in this FR thread.

[knak]

bump to read later

[spetznaz]

I actually read a post yesterday from someone who said that he saw somewhere some Pakistanis saying that they would be willing to see their country completely destroyed by India if it meant taking a couple of Indian cities with them.

That type of attitude is not only myopic, it is just outright crazy!

[Tacis]

But, if India wins, what have they won? Are they going to occupy Pakistan? For how long? Then what? What are they going to do with their internal Muslims? An analysis of the opening is always pretty easy, it is the end game that is very hard to predict.

[NorseWood]

bump

[spetznaz]

I do not think that India intends to occupy Pakistan. Simply knock the crap out of them.....then nuke 'em.

[mushroom]

Because Pakistan has been equiping and supporting Muslim terrorists and the Indians are pissed enough to start a war that THE INDIANS might be able to win.

Remember, all the analysts said the Iraqis would put up a brutal, bloody and long fight.

[spetznaz]

There have also been reports that the IAF have treated their front line aircraft such as the Jaguar, Su 30,MiG-29, MiG-27 and Mirage 2000 with a stealth material said to reduce the RCS of aircraft by up to 70%

[operation clinton cleanup]

Yes, but who has more Oracle programmers?

LOL! That is the real threat!

[tictoc]

See this Atlantic Monthly article. It was discussed in this FR thread.

Disturbing and sad. My feelings about Muslims are changing from rage and anger to pity.

[AzSteven]

I actually read a post yesterday from someone who said that he saw somewhere some Pakistanis saying that they would be willing to see their country completely destroyed by India if it meant taking a couple of Indian cities with them.

Islam. Religion of Peace. Please move along...

[ZOOKER]

...However my question is this, why would pakistan engage india if it knows it has no chance of winning?

Perhaps because there are currently US soldiers stationed in Pakistan.

Maybe the Pak think if some of our boys are killed and India is blamed, we could be forced into the conflict (on Pakistan's side).

We could be forced to defend Pakistan anyway --- IMHO Pakistan will go nuclear if they are overrun, even if they have to smuggle nukes in on camelback.

Don't laugh, this is a very possible if their air force is destroyed.

Also remember these are muslims --- with Allah on your side you don't need logic.