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INDIA vs PAKISTAN: AN ANALYSIS OF WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THEY WENT TO WAR (AND WHO WOULD WIN).

Posted on 05/22/2002 12:59:39 PM PDT by spetznaz

Scenario

India has launched a pre-emptive strike on Pakistan in an attempt to eliminate it's nuclear weapons capability and as a military threat in the near future.

ANALYSIS -- Air Battle

Initial strike carried out by Indian Sukhoi 33s/30s, Harriers, MiG-27's, MiG-23's, MiG-21's and Jaguar's on forward Pakistani command posts, airfields, weapon storage facilities (namely nuclear weapons and IRBM) and communication relay stations escorted by MiG 29's, MiG-23's, Mirage 2000 and MiG 21-93's. While the Indian Naval Harriers and attack craft attack the port of Karachi in an attempt to close it to keep reinforcements from sympathetic Islamic countries coming in via sea.

In such a situation the Pakistani Air Force would have a major problem securing their airspace mainly due to the fact that their aircraft lack any real BVR (beyond visual range) capability or look-down shoot-down capability with only their F-16's having a look-down shoot-down capability but limited to only AIM-9 Sidewinders (Note:- although Pakistan is thought to have up to 500 AIM-7 Sparrows the only F-16A's capable of firing them are the F-16A Block 15 ADF used by the USAF). While their Mirage III's , V's , F-7's (MiG-21) and F-6's (MiG-19) have no look-down shoot-down capability and no BVR capability (Note:- some F-7's and Mirage III/V are to be upgraded, this will include new radar's and other avionics). While this gap may be filled in the near future through the FC-1 fighter while this would the PAF a look-down shoot-down capability that it presently lacks it would not be superior to the MiG-29, Mirage 2000 or the LCA. Thus at present this means that if Indian attack aircraft come in at low level Pakistani aircraft would have difficulty in detecting IAF aircraft and have no capability of engaging them at long range. While the Indian escort aircraft having a BVR capability with weapons including AA-10 Alamo's , AA-12 Adders and Super 530D AAM's would have the capability to engage PAF aircraft at medium/long range allowing IAF attack aircraft to operate under an umbrella of air cover, thus giving the IAF effective air superiority over much of the battle field. ( There have also been reports that the IAF have treated their front line aircraft such as the Jaguar, MiG-29, MiG-27 and Mirage 2000 with a stealth material said to reduce the RCS of aircraft by up to 70% and increases weight by up to 50kg, Aircraft & Aerospace Asia-Pacific, Feb. 1996 pg.20). Without a BVR capability Pakistan has to rely on a SAM system based primarily on short range SAM's like the Crotale and man portable SAM's like the Stinger and indigenous Anza, here to Pakistan lacks the modern SAM system that most armies now have. While the IAF will sustain losses to SAM's without a medium range, low-medium altitude SAM Pakistan will suffer serious losses to Indian deep strike missions.

Another weakness of the PAF is their apparent lack of dedicated attack aircraft with the Q-5 Fantan being their only dedicated strike aircraft , with the F-6's (MiG-19's) and Mirage III / V having to double as point defence fighters or interceptors. Secondly none of these aircraft have the capability to deliver PGM's only 'dumb' bomb's. The best strike aircraft possessed by the PAF is the F-16 but it is unlikely that Pakistan would use it's only advanced fighter in a strike role (Note: some reports suggest that Pakistan may have acquired PGM's from Denel). This limits the ability of the PAF to strike deep into India or hit targets with any great precision. This has been recognized by the Pakistani Government which attempted to fill the hole with attempted procurements of both the Su-27 and the Mirage 2000. Both procurement programs were abandoned after the respective companies pulled out after pressure by India as both companies are lobbying for a multi billion dollar training aircraft contract for the IAF and due to spiralling costs. Most recently the PAF has become involved in the FC-1 program , an aircraft which would be powered by the RD-93 , be equipped with an advanced look down - shoot down radar and have a g-limit of + 8g's (possibly 9+ for the PAF). In comparison the IAF recently acquired a PGM capability with the acquisition of the Rafael Litening laser designation pod for it's Jaguar's and Mirage 2000. While it is investigating the possibility of upgrading it's MiG-27 attack aircraft.

The IAF's superiority in aircraft with 135 modern combat aircraft (with 125 MiG 21 to be upgraded to the 21-93 standard, a projected 200 LCA to be delivered by 2010 and 40 Su-30MKI's with the option to manufacture 100) to the PAF's 38 (with a possible 150 FC-1's to be delivered within the next 10-15 years provided the program continues) would result in the IAF gaining almost complete air superiority over much of the battle field while limiting the ability of the PAF to strike deep into India.

It is also probable that Saudi Arabia may loan Pakistan an AWACS aircraft as Russia has previously done with the Tu-126 Moss. It is also probable that if Saudi Arabia were to send Pakistan an AWACS that they would also send along at least one squadron of F-15 interceptors as escort for the AWACS as well as to defend the AWACS in operations. While an AWACS if would be a massive improvement in Pakistan's air defence capability, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia would send more than 1 and without an airborne refuelling system and because of post flight maintenance the AWACS would probably be limited to 1 flight per day (with 12 hours on patrol). It is also possible that the United Arab Emirates would provide help in the form of Mirage 2000's. Another potential vulnerability of the Pakistani air force is its dependence on ground controlled intercept's, any attacks on control towers, command and control centres and the use of communications jamming could cause significant problems to airborne units which would find themselves isolated and due to the lack of effective radars unable to engage the enemy. This type of tactic would be particularly effective at night as it would allow Indian fighters to engage Pakistani units at long range at relatively low risk.

The PAF would be expected to lose about 40-50% of it's aircraft while the IAF would be expected to sustain losses of around 20% - 30% consisting of mainly MiG-21's and other ground attack aircraft which would be forced to get into close combat with the PAF aircraft as well as loses due to Pakistani SAM's such as the Crotale and the large number of hand held SAM's. The overall lack of modern aircraft seriously damage's the capability of the PAF in defending Pakistani airspace despite the high quality of it's pilots.

ANALYSIS -- Sea battle

In naval matters India has a large advantage over the Pakistani Navy namely to it's aircraft carrier VIRAAT equipped with Harriers and Sea Kings along with a large number of surface vessels including six destroyers the latest of which are the Delhi Class DDG's which are among the worlds finest destroyers with 2 more planed, large numbers of frigates, corvettes including the Godavari Class (6) , Khukri Class (8) , Improved Krivak III Class (3 are on order and 3 are planed) and the Tarantul-I Class (11 of which are in service ; 5 are planed) and 17 submarines including nine Soviet Kilo class and four German SSK 209 Class, Type 1500. With a program to produce SLCM armed nuclear submarines and one aircraft carrier, along with this talks with Russia over the sale of Admiral Gorshkov continue, the current deal would see Admiral Gorshkov being equipped with a 14.5deg ski jump and MiG-29K's and possibly a navalised LCA, this would put the Indian Navy effectively into fifth place behind the US, UK, France and Russia.

In comparison the Pakistani Navy is based around 6 Type 21 Amazon class frigates bought from the RN after being forced to return 8 US frigates (Brooke class) due to sanctions. The Amazon class are veterans of the Falklands War where two were lost due to air attacks, displaying a major venerability to air attack. Their main armament comes in the form of four M.38 Exocet SSM (refitted with Harpoons) and LY 60N SAM's which have a range of 13km. With no aircraft carrier the fleet is left naked to air attack from INS Harriers , Sea Kings and IAF Jaguars all of which are equipped with Sea Eagle ASM's which have a range of 110 km. The Jaguars have also had their radar's upgraded to the Elta EL/M - 2032 which has been offered as an upgrade by Israel.

With the recent acquisition of the Ka-31AEW for operations of the carrier VIRAAT severally reduces the ability of the PAF Mirages configured to carry Exocet's to avoid detection in their strikes on the INS carrier group, as the Ka-31AEW's would give the INS Sea Harriers sufficient time to intercept or harass any attackers. As experience form the Falklands War has shown the Sea Harrier is more than a match for the Mirage III/V , where no Sea Harriers were lost to Mirages in ACM in return for the destruction of approximately 20 Mirages and Skyhawks. The range of the Exocet of 50km (or 70km for the latest versions) when launched at altitude means that attackers will have to approach to aprox. 45km from the carrier group an undertaking that would be hazardous under the best of circumstances.

The sharpest teeth of the PN is it's submarine arm which consists of 4 Daphne and 2 Augosta which are equipped with Harpoon SSM's, with 3 Agosta 90B class to be delivered by 2006. Although the number at sea at any one time would be limited to approximately 2 due to the fact that a minimum of 3 sub's are needed to maintain one at sea continuously ( one at sea, one undergoing repairs/servicing and a dock side trainer). Secondly the submarines are quite rapidly reaching the end of their service lives having been replaced by almost all services due to the rapid advances in sonar technology and the proliferation of the Kilo class which has gained the nickname "Black Hole" by NATO due to its low noise signature. While the PN submarine arm would be a major thorn in the side of the INS the lack of surface support limits their ability to strike the INS. The INS submarine arm by comparison would receive large amounts of support both from surface vessels and from air assets ( i.e. Tu-142M Bear, Il-38 and Dornier 228 ).

Most naval experts agree that while the INS will take loses to the PN will be beaten due to in-effective air cover for their surface combatants and limited SAM capability as well as the fact that it would be out-numbered 3-1. The result would be a closing of the port of Karachi and inability of Pakistani allies to resupply Pakistan via the sea. Rather than engage the Indian fleet the Pakistan Navy should concentrate on attempting to hold open its sea lanes, as any attack on the Indian fleet would probably result in failure.

ANALYSIS -- Ground campaign

With the ground campaign it neither country has a clear advantage that would allow it a sweeping victory (Gulf War style) but rather it would result in a bloody campaign that would last several weeks possibly months. Unless a successful Blitzkrieg style of campaign can be accomplished by one of the sides. While India has a 2-1 advantage in personal (1.1 million to 500,000) The Pakistani Army has shown to be quite effective when operating in defence and any Indian attack can expect to meet severe Pakistani opposition.

As always in a ground campaign the side which can gain air superiority and can maintain an advantage in armoured vehicles has a distinct advantage. With the Indian Air Force having the ability to gain air superiority over the battle field and the Army having 2000 T-72 M1 , 1800 Vickers MBT's and 700 T-55's, with the Arjuin MBT to go into production in the near future. Compared to the Pakistani Army's 2000 MBT's consisting of T-55, T-59, T-69, T-85II, T80 (Ukrainian), M-47 and M-48's ( Note: the Al Khalid MBT is currently undergoing testing and is expected to enter production soon). This gives an advantage of 4500 MBT to the 2000 Pakistani MBT. But consideration has to be given to the fact that not all the MBT's , soldiers or aircraft can be pressed to front line use as India would have to maintain a significant presence on it's border with China as an India at war with Pakistan would represent a tempting target to China. Although the acquisition of nuclear weapons should provide a credible deterrent to China. One advantage that India could use is it's massive transport helicopter arm with over 300 in service and 200 ALH's planned, this could allow India to place large numbers of troops behind enemy line's quickly gaining a significant advantage, on the other hand Pakistan does not have anywhere near this capability.

Short of outstanding tactics from one of the sides the ground campaign would result in a bloody and protracted war with neither side gaining any serious advantages. Although the lack of Pakistani reserves would begin to tell as well as the ability of the IAF to strike major targets in Pakistan this would result in the gaining of some ground by the Indian Army but the existence of the state of Pakistan would never be threatened nor would there be the possibility of the Pakistani Army gaining much Indian territory. The greatest danger is that in the struggle to gain ground one of the sides may resort to the use of nuclear weapons.

While Pakistan would seem to have the better missiles they are based on Chinese designs or are Chinese in origin leaving a question mark over their accuracy and reliability. As recent launches have shown Chinese satellite launch vehicles are generally unreliable at best, while their ICBM's and IRBM's would be more reliable there is still a question mark over them, although they still provide a very credible nuclear threat to India but lack the accuracy to present any real conventional threat. On the other hand the Indian Prithvi SRBM which is capable of caring a 1 tone warhead over 250km has been reported to have attained an CEP of 10m in some tests through the use of a warhead similar to that of the RA-DAG warhead used by the Pershing II (Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, April/May 1994, pg 20). While the Agni missile system said to have a range of 2500km is said to be just months away from production should the need arise, along with recent advances in Indian rocketry that have made the possibility of an Indian ICBM a reality. The recent acquisition of the S-300 SAM with a range in excess of 200km and a secondary ABM capability also provides India with basic ABM capability. Also the recent tests by India of sub kiloton nuclear weapons which are primarily used as battle field weapons suggests that Indian strategist's may have envisioned their use in battle.

Result.

In the final analysis the PAF and the Pakistani Naval Service would have had much of their offensive capabilities destroyed, while the Pakistani Army although better off would have lost most of it's top divisions , something that would have also occurred with the Indian Army. While the INS and IAF would be in a significantly better position than their Pakistani counterparts, the IAF would have to engage in a major rebuilding to address the losses that it would suffer to it's fleet mainly it's older attack fighters in their attacks on Pakistani targets and in maintaining air superiority, while the INS would have to address losses that would incur in it's engagements with the PNS. While Pakistan's push to become a regional superpower would have been severely curtailed. While the economies of both countries but in particular Pakistan would be severally damaged.


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: india; military; pakistan; thermonuclear; war
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I saw this article on the web, and found it to be very interesting. However my question is this, why would pakistan engage india if it knows it has no chance of winning?
1 posted on 05/22/2002 12:59:39 PM PDT by spetznaz
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To: spetznaz
"...why would pakistan engage india if it knows it has no chance of winning?"

Islamic myopia.

2 posted on 05/22/2002 1:06:59 PM PDT by A Navy Vet
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To: spetznaz;Dark Wing
Pakistan has a lot more nukes than India - perhaps 80-100, as opposed to India's 40-50.

Pakistan need only pop 1-2 Indian cities to cause mass civilian panic and spontaneous evacuation of most of India's other cities, which would utterly collapse India's war effort. Sure the Indians could do it back, but they're on the strategic offensive so mutual collapse would be their defeat. The status quo favors Pakistan.

3 posted on 05/22/2002 1:07:03 PM PDT by Thud
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To: Thud
I would hope each side expends all possible nuclear rounds on each other.
4 posted on 05/22/2002 1:09:28 PM PDT by Gurn
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To: spetznaz
The article also makes no mention of tactical and strategic objectives of the Indians. Is it just to punish Pakistan? To impose a security zone west of Kashmir? To extract terms from Pakistan? None of this is clear, and all are very different objectives.
5 posted on 05/22/2002 1:09:59 PM PDT by kezekiel
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To: Thud
Pakistan has a lot more nukes than India - perhaps 80-100, as opposed to India's 40-50.

Yes, but who has more Oracle programmers?

6 posted on 05/22/2002 1:10:22 PM PDT by montag813
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To: Thud
Actually i was reading up on the nuclear strategic capability of both countries, and although Pakistani nukes can only reach appro. half of india (since India is so darn huge), Indian nukes can reach ALL of Pakistan.

Thus in a nuclear conflagration India would suffer great loss to some of its major cities, but it would survive, albeit wounded.

Pakistan on the other hand would be COMPLETELY destroyed. Destroyed as in nuclear wasteland. Hence the only thing Pakistan would accomplish by engaging India through nukes is killing a few million indians (note India has a population of around a billion....it is second to china). However India would still have the capability to strike back at Pakistan, destroying it completely in the process.

7 posted on 05/22/2002 1:10:47 PM PDT by spetznaz
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To: spetznaz
My expectation is that it will be a case of India attacking Pakistan in retaliation for muslim terror attacks in India.

The article is pretty on the mark, but from speaking with friends in the defense industry, I have heard that India has badly neglected the concept of air-ground coordination, meaning their ability to support ground actions through air superiority may not be as great as it would appear.

The Pakistanis have apparently paid more attention to that aspect, but their air force will probably be too busy defending urban centers and military facilities to do much CAS.

If India does manage to acheive a major battlefield breakthrough or surprise, I suspect the Pakistanis will feel obliged to use their nukes. India will probably only use their nukes in response to a Pakistani nuclear strike. But I think the more likely scenario is an Indian advance into the disputed Kashmir region, followed by a stalemate and a negotiated peace in a few weeks.

Thing to lookout for; an Indian victory is almost certain (IMHO) to be followed up with a fundamentalist uprising in Pakistan. If that happens, I think the fundamentalists will succeed, and the overall world situation will not be the better for it.

8 posted on 05/22/2002 1:12:21 PM PDT by AzSteven
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To: spetznaz
why would pakistan engage india if it knows it has no chance of winning?

See this Atlantic Monthly article. It was discussed in this FR thread.

9 posted on 05/22/2002 1:12:30 PM PDT by Mitchell
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To: spetznaz
bump to read later
10 posted on 05/22/2002 1:12:38 PM PDT by knak
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To: A Navy Vet
I actually read a post yesterday from someone who said that he saw somewhere some Pakistanis saying that they would be willing to see their country completely destroyed by India if it meant taking a couple of Indian cities with them.

That type of attitude is not only myopic, it is just outright crazy!

11 posted on 05/22/2002 1:12:50 PM PDT by spetznaz
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To: spetznaz
But, if India wins, what have they won? Are they going to occupy Pakistan? For how long? Then what? What are they going to do with their internal Muslims? An analysis of the opening is always pretty easy, it is the end game that is very hard to predict.
12 posted on 05/22/2002 1:14:44 PM PDT by Tacis
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To: spetznaz
bump
13 posted on 05/22/2002 1:17:25 PM PDT by NorseWood
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To: Tacis
I do not think that India intends to occupy Pakistan. Simply knock the crap out of them.....then nuke 'em.
14 posted on 05/22/2002 1:21:59 PM PDT by spetznaz
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To: spetznaz
Because Pakistan has been equiping and supporting Muslim terrorists and the Indians are pissed enough to start a war that THE INDIANS might be able to win.

Remember, all the analysts said the Iraqis would put up a brutal, bloody and long fight.

15 posted on 05/22/2002 1:22:36 PM PDT by mushroom
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To: spetznaz
There have also been reports that the IAF have treated their front line aircraft such as the Jaguar, Su 30,MiG-29, MiG-27 and Mirage 2000 with a stealth material said to reduce the RCS of aircraft by up to 70%
16 posted on 05/22/2002 1:24:06 PM PDT by spetznaz
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To: montag813
Yes, but who has more Oracle programmers?

LOL! That is the real threat!

17 posted on 05/22/2002 1:24:44 PM PDT by operation clinton cleanup
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To: Mitchell
See this Atlantic Monthly article. It was discussed in this FR thread.

Disturbing and sad. My feelings about Muslims are changing from rage and anger to pity.

18 posted on 05/22/2002 1:25:38 PM PDT by tictoc
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To: spetznaz
I actually read a post yesterday from someone who said that he saw somewhere some Pakistanis saying that they would be willing to see their country completely destroyed by India if it meant taking a couple of Indian cities with them.

Islam. Religion of Peace. Please move along...

19 posted on 05/22/2002 1:26:39 PM PDT by AzSteven
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To: spetznaz
...However my question is this, why would pakistan engage india if it knows it has no chance of winning?

Perhaps because there are currently US soldiers stationed in Pakistan.

Maybe the Pak think if some of our boys are killed and India is blamed, we could be forced into the conflict (on Pakistan's side).

We could be forced to defend Pakistan anyway --- IMHO Pakistan will go nuclear if they are overrun, even if they have to smuggle nukes in on camelback.

Don't laugh, this is a very possible if their air force is destroyed.

Also remember these are muslims --- with Allah on your side you don't need logic.

20 posted on 05/22/2002 1:27:16 PM PDT by ZOOKER
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To: mushroom
The following info was garnered about their respective nuke strike capabilities, and once again India has the upper hand.

The danger is in the attempt to gain an advantage one of the sides may resort to the use of nuclear weapons which both countries tested recently, with Pakistan having between 8-12 nuclear weapons and India having between 70-100 nuclear weapons with both countries having a ballistic missile capability. With India having the Agni and Prithvi ballistic missiles which have a range of 2500km and 150/250km respectively. With Pakistan having the Hataf series and Ghauri missiles with ranges of 60km/600-800km and 1500km respectively. Although the Pakistani missiles are based on Chinese designs or are Chinese in origin which leaves a question mark over their accuracy, while the Prithvi has been reported to have attained an CEP of 10m in some tests through the use of a warhead similar to that of the RA-DAG warhead used by the Pershing II (Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, April/May 1994, pg. 20). India has also ordered the 300V SAM from Russia which has a ABM capability and is thought to be superior to the Patriot system that protected Israel during the Gulf War. ( Note:- even if Pakistan were to begin with a nuclear first strike they could never destroy India's nuclear capability. With only 7-12 weapons Pakistan would only be able to attack 3-6 Indian targets. While they do have delivery systems they are yet to develop a hard target kill capability, thus enough Indian weapons would survive to allow for a massive retaliatory strike.)

21 posted on 05/22/2002 1:28:28 PM PDT by spetznaz
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To: spetznaz
Their Muslim, Logic doens't enter the Islamic equation. Never has. Despite the efforts of the current regime in Pakistan to provide support for the U.S., it in no way represents the sentiments of the majority of Pakistanis, most of whom are Muslim, anti-west and hate America and our presence there.

My sympathies would be TOTALLY with the Indians and I would hope the U.S. would provide them with whatever assistance they might need in taming this additional potential Islamic Rattlesnake.

After all, India and the Hindus have suffered for centuries from Islamic oppression and are still, like the U.S. and Israel, targets of Islamic terrorists.

22 posted on 05/22/2002 1:31:33 PM PDT by ZULU
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To: spetznaz
I would believe a Pakistani first strike before an Indian one. I'm not particularly fond of either one, but it seems to me that India is the lesser of two madmen.
23 posted on 05/22/2002 1:32:51 PM PDT by Petronski
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To: Thud
Let them duke it out
24 posted on 05/22/2002 1:33:49 PM PDT by W1RCH
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To: spetznaz
Could you please post the link to the original article?
25 posted on 05/22/2002 1:34:40 PM PDT by mvonfr
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To: spetznaz
Someone posted a chilling fact here the other day: if Pakistan were to unleash its entire nuclear arsenal on India killing 700 million (a very high figure, the poster conceded), India would still be more populous than the United States -- with only a fraction of the land.

Kind of puts it in perspective.

26 posted on 05/22/2002 1:35:13 PM PDT by cgk
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To: spetznaz
Here is a Pic of India's Carrier.......



The former russian carrier Gorshkov.
27 posted on 05/22/2002 1:38:20 PM PDT by cmsgop
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To: A Navy Vet; Mitchell
"...why would pakistan engage india if it knows it has no chance of winning?"

It's called suicide bombing

It is a practice Islamic fundamentalists have tried before
in Pakistan and in other countries.

Nuclear weapons would be even more effective than dynamite.

28 posted on 05/22/2002 1:39:14 PM PDT by Nogbad
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To: spetznaz
However my question is this, why would pakistan engage india if it knows it has no chance of winning?

The Paki jihadists are killin' for their "god". Death to the infidels, don't ya know. Its a big part of the peaceful religion of Islam. Even if they lose they think they go the big orgy in the sky with 72 virgins. There is no logical reasoning to be found in the brainpan of any muslim jihad killer.

29 posted on 05/22/2002 1:56:55 PM PDT by Walkin Man
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To: AzSteven
Thing to lookout for; an Indian victory is almost certain (IMHO) to be followed up with a fundamentalist uprising in Pakistan.

If that happens we had better take out the Paki's nukes ourselves or have radical Islamo-fascists in control of nuclear weapons. Their next target could be the USA.

30 posted on 05/22/2002 2:02:30 PM PDT by Walkin Man
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To: spetznaz
One thing to be noted about the two nations' nuclear arsenals is that the Pakistani nukes are uranium bombs while the Indians have plutonium bombs... the destructive potential of Indian nukes is far greater.
31 posted on 05/22/2002 2:33:17 PM PDT by thoughtomator
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To: spetznaz
I actually read a post yesterday from someone who said that he saw somewhere some Pakistanis saying that they would be willing to see their country completely destroyed by India if it meant taking a couple of Indian cities with them.

See post #9, it contains a link to the statement you're describing.

32 posted on 05/22/2002 3:01:00 PM PDT by Dan Day
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To: W1RCH
A few years back, I made the acquaintance of a Brit whose profession was writing travel publications. This man had first hand experience with places I never knew to exist, and could talk for weeks on the countries he had visited.

One night over dinner the subject of an India / Pak war came up. This mans main concern was not of a geographical conflict between the countries, but, should a war occur, that it would be undertaken by Indians and Pakistanis in every country where they both reside.

Given his perspective, it left me with pause for concern.

33 posted on 05/22/2002 3:05:53 PM PDT by Freebird Forever
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To: cmsgop
No, India's Carrier is ex-British, the old HMS Hermes. They still don't have that Russian carrier.
34 posted on 05/22/2002 3:23:25 PM PDT by maquiladora
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To: spetznaz
You have an exaggerated opinion of the physical effects of nuclear weapons. In this conflict they would be best used to spread mass panic and so collapse civilian economies. Their best military use would be counter-force.
35 posted on 05/22/2002 3:24:12 PM PDT by Thud
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To: tictoc
My feelings about Muslims are changing from rage and anger to pity.

Yes, the portrayal of Pakistani worldview in The Atlantic is pitiful.

But the rage returns as the body count caused by Muslim irrationality continues to rise.

36 posted on 05/22/2002 4:29:50 PM PDT by happygrl
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To: tictoc
It is very disturbing. I don't know how widespread the particular feelings described are, but the general level of irrationality and murderous desperation is clearly very high. And the celebration of so-called martyrdom, the elevation of insanity to a virtue, aggravates the whole thing.

I do think people like the general in the article grossly underestimate the pain and suffering that they will bring upon their own people. But, so frequently, only once it happens do people realize what they've gotten themselves into.

37 posted on 05/22/2002 4:31:36 PM PDT by Mitchell
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To: Nogbad
It's called suicide bombing

Good point.

38 posted on 05/22/2002 4:33:00 PM PDT by Mitchell
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To: Freebird Forever
This mans main concern was not of a geographical conflict between the countries, but, should a war occur, that it would be undertaken by Indians and Pakistanis in every country where they both reside.

That could make life in Britain a battleground, for one example.

39 posted on 05/22/2002 4:44:16 PM PDT by xJones
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To: spetznaz
You have an unrealistic opinion of nuclear weapons effects. Real life is not like the movies. And there has been a whole lot of lefty nonsense on the subject too. Don't fall for their propaganda.
40 posted on 05/22/2002 4:53:31 PM PDT by Thud
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To: spetznaz
it is just outright crazy!

On one side there are those who will be immediately rewarded with the purest clear wine in Paradise. On the other hand are those who will be reborn immediately anyway. Does this sound like people who are worried about a trivial exchange of a few dozen nuclear warheads?

41 posted on 05/22/2002 4:56:28 PM PDT by RightWhale
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To: Tacis
"But, if India wins, what have they won? Are they going to occupy Pakistan? For how long? Then what? What are they going to do with their internal Muslims? An analysis of the opening is always pretty easy, it is the end game that is very hard to predict."

In order: termination of state-sponsored terrorism from what had been Pakistan plus termination of an increasingly dangerous nuclear threat from a nutball terrorist regime on India's border; for a long time (probably as long as India exists); not a real question; same as now.

42 posted on 05/22/2002 4:57:12 PM PDT by Thud
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To: montag813
India, most definitely. Pakistan has the Java programmers
43 posted on 05/22/2002 5:01:53 PM PDT by billbears
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To: RightWhale
You have radical islamic fundamentalists in Pakistan. Usually when Islamic fundamentalists have gone after opposition, (this is more recent then centuraies ago) they have gone after more logical, levelheaded and to some respect secular neighbors. They have not in a long time engaged another group with religious extremists. Hindu extremists are first, not pacifists (gandi is an exception, not a rule), do believe in reincarnation, and bitterly hate muslims. There are hindu extremists engaged against muslim extremists, and they don't mince words calling this a war against islam. The ruling party is a Hindu Nationalist party, a group that defines itself as extreme. Nukes are an option. India could lost half of its population and still have double the US's population, which, will, in hindu beliefs come back through reincarnation. Its time to see who religious extreme side, can beat who's. My bet, muslims lose. Hindu's win, and they won't be occupying pakistan.
44 posted on 05/22/2002 5:11:52 PM PDT by Sonny M
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To: maquiladora
My Bad!!!!!

THE INS VIRAAT!


45 posted on 05/22/2002 5:12:38 PM PDT by cmsgop
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To: Sonny M
I'm thinking the Indian army will advance roughly to the Indus River, bypassing the larger cities.
46 posted on 05/22/2002 5:17:23 PM PDT by RightWhale
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To: xJones
BTTT
47 posted on 05/22/2002 5:21:07 PM PDT by sarasmom
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To: spetznaz
"I do not think that India intends to occupy Pakistan."

Afghan warlords HATE Pakistan. A clever Indian would simply "invite" numerous warlords to expand their Afghan territories into what was once called Pakistan. Then it would be Muslims occupying Muslims, a condition that forbids Jihad per the Koran...

48 posted on 05/22/2002 5:27:26 PM PDT by Southack
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To: spetznaz
This is being instigated by the moslem wackos to distract bin Laden's pursuers. Let's tilt toward India
49 posted on 05/22/2002 5:34:43 PM PDT by metacognative
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To: Sonny M
Actually they first go after moderates of their own ethnic group first. That's terrorist SOP.
50 posted on 05/22/2002 5:56:02 PM PDT by Thud
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