INDIA vs PAKISTAN: AN ANALYSIS OF WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THEY WENT TO WAR (AND WHO WOULD WIN).

[RightWhale]

it is just outright crazy!

On one side there are those who will be immediately rewarded with the purest clear wine in Paradise. On the other hand are those who will be reborn immediately anyway. Does this sound like people who are worried about a trivial exchange of a few dozen nuclear warheads?

[Thud]

"But, if India wins, what have they won? Are they going to occupy Pakistan? For how long? Then what? What are they going to do with their internal Muslims? An analysis of the opening is always pretty easy, it is the end game that is very hard to predict."

In order: termination of state-sponsored terrorism from what had been Pakistan plus termination of an increasingly dangerous nuclear threat from a nutball terrorist regime on India's border; for a long time (probably as long as India exists); not a real question; same as now.

[billbears]

India, most definitely. Pakistan has the Java programmers

[Sonny M]

You have radical islamic fundamentalists in Pakistan. Usually when Islamic fundamentalists have gone after opposition, (this is more recent then centuraies ago) they have gone after more logical, levelheaded and to some respect secular neighbors. They have not in a long time engaged another group with religious extremists. Hindu extremists are first, not pacifists (gandi is an exception, not a rule), do believe in reincarnation, and bitterly hate muslims. There are hindu extremists engaged against muslim extremists, and they don't mince words calling this a war against islam. The ruling party is a Hindu Nationalist party, a group that defines itself as extreme. Nukes are an option. India could lost half of its population and still have double the US's population, which, will, in hindu beliefs come back through reincarnation. Its time to see who religious extreme side, can beat who's. My bet, muslims lose. Hindu's win, and they won't be occupying pakistan.

[cmsgop]

My Bad!!!!!

THE INS VIRAAT!

[RightWhale]

I'm thinking the Indian army will advance roughly to the Indus River, bypassing the larger cities.

[sarasmom]

BTTT

[Southack]

"I do not think that India intends to occupy Pakistan."

Afghan warlords HATE Pakistan. A clever Indian would simply "invite" numerous warlords to expand their Afghan territories into what was once called Pakistan. Then it would be Muslims occupying Muslims, a condition that forbids Jihad per the Koran...

[metacognative]

This is being instigated by the moslem wackos to distract bin Laden's pursuers. Let's tilt toward India

[Thud]

Actually they first go after moderates of their own ethnic group first. That's terrorist SOP.

[jackbill]

While I appreciate what little help Pakistan has given us in the war on terriorism, I think that I'll root for the Indians on this one.

[rstevens]

What I think is this may be a very clever ploy to force OBL out of hiding. No way will he stay in Pakistan if a nuclear hollocaust is immenient. OTOH if not a clever ploy, then the US should be covertly urging India to place a few nukes in and around the area where OBL and his motley crew are hiding. Just a thought. If a nuclear exchange is about to happen between the two countries, then we should encourage targeting OBL by India.

[spetznaz]

You state that i have a rudimentary knowledge of the capabilities of nuclear warfare, and that 'real life is not like the movies.'

First of all i really do not comprehend your train of thought, and why you believe my views on the potential exchange of nukes between the two foes is 'unrealistic.'

Also i know enough of nukes to understand that India has a superior nuke force, with certain 'hard target kill' capabilities, and with an accuracy that is at the very least satisfactory. They also have more than pakistan and can cover all of Pakistan. On the other hand the best Paki missile (the Ghauri) cannot get all of India, its accuracy is debatable, and it has not hard target kill capability. The numbers too are limited, and thus if you add up all those factors India could easily exterminate all of Pakistan in one huge assault.

And come think of it, India doesn't even need to use nukes to finish of Pakistan. There is little Pakis can do to stop the Indians. And IMHO the only thing that held India back is that China might attack its rear while it is busy thrashing the living daylights out of Pakistan.

So, kind sir, please enlighten me where my knowledge of nukes is 'unrealistic' and why. Because i still do not see where my views are unrealistic. After all i think the Indians and Pakis are going further than their usual sabre rattling.... and India even has stratagems that allow it to strike first.

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

Even if they lose they think they go the big orgy in the sky with 72 virgins. There is no logical reasoning to be found in the brainpan of any muslim jihad killer.

I always wondered if in the Muslim "whore heaven", are the women covered or uncovered? It would say alot about that "peaceful" religion. Any Muslims out there? Please answer my question!!

[mikeIII]

The Indians are as intent, if not more, on getting OBL and al qaida as we are. Where opinions diverge is on Pakistan's sincerity in helping to accomplish this.

[StockAyatollah]

I hope that if the Saudis help Pakistan, India will do what WE should have and nuke Riyadh!

[Kermit]

Muslims believe in total pre-destination. Allah has planned everything for everyone, so it's in Allah's hands. So, if 100 or 200 million people die, it's Allah's will and nothing can be done about it. Here's the key part of that Atlantic article and Freep thread.

"So why would Pakistan push the losing button? The answer lies in a chilling exchange related in a recent article in the journal Atlantic Monthly that is being circulated widely in the South Asia circuit.

In the article, writer Peter Landesman relates a hair-raising conversation he has with a retired Pakistani brigadier who was serving as an aide to Benazir Bhutto. On a visit to Brigadier Amanullah’s house in Islamabad, Landesman sees a landscape painting showing the Bhuttos with what he (Landesman) thinks is a rocket heading to the moon. He asks the Brigadier about it, and is told the painting is actually "A nuclear warhead heading to India".

The rest of the narrative in Landesman’s own words:

I thought he was making a joke. Then I saw he wasn't. I thought of the shrines to Pakistan's nuclear-weapons site, prominently displayed in every city. I told Aman that I was disturbed by the ease with which Pakistanis talk of nuclear war with India.

Aman shook his head. "No," he said matter-of-factly. "This should happen. We should use the bomb."

"For what purpose?" He didn't seem to understand my question. "In retaliation?" I asked.

"Why not?"

"Or first strike?"

"Why not?"

I looked for a sign of irony. None was visible. Rocking his head side to side, his expression becoming more and more withdrawn, Aman launched into a monologue that neither of us, I am sure, knew was coming:

"We should fire at them and take out a few of their cities—Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta," he said. "They should fire back and take Karachi and Lahore. Kill off a hundred or two hundred million people. They should fire at us and it would all be over. They have acted so badly toward us; they have been so mean. We should teach them a lesson. It would teach all of us a lesson. There is no future here, and we need to start over. So many people think this. Have you been to the villages of Pakistan, the interior? There is nothing but dire poverty and pain. The children have no education; there is nothing to look forward to. Go into the villages, see the poverty. There is no drinking water. Small children without shoes walk miles for a drink of water. I go to the villages and I want to cry. My children have no future. None of the children of Pakistan have a future. We are surrounded by nothing but war and suffering. Millions should die away."

"Pakistan should fire pre-emptively?" I asked.

Aman nodded.

"And you are willing to see your children die?"

"Tens of thousands of people are dying in Kashmir, and the only superpower says nothing," Aman said. "America has sided with India because it has interests there." He told me he was willing to see his children be killed. He repeated that they didn't have any future — his children or any other children.

I asked him if he thought he was alone in his thoughts, and Aman made it clear to me that he was not.

"Believe me," he went on, "If I were in charge, I would have already done it."

Aman stopped, as though he'd stunned even himself. Then he added, with quiet forcefulness, "Before I die, I hope I should see it."

It is this hopeless desperation that western officials are warning India about as New Delhi weighs the military option. A country without a future is quite willing to go down and try and take with it a country which is hopeful of its future despite its myriad problems.

For India, the dilemma is obvious: If it submits to this line of thinking (Pakistan’s irrationality), it risks being blackmailed into inaction; if it chooses to call the bluff, it invites the Amanullah solution."

[Jorge]

Pakistan has a lot more nukes than India - perhaps 80-100, as opposed to India's 40-50.

This article claims;
"India is believed to have about 60 nuclear warheads compared with Pakistan’s 25."

From; Nuclear War Threat Over Kashmir Crisis
The Times (UK)
| 5-22-2002 | Richard Beeston

[MadRobotArtist]

I've read a few articles on this topic. In all honesty, I think that if Pakistan were to initiate a Nuclear strike, that India whould annihilate them outright with everything they had. Then you have the allies of Pakistan nuking India, and India being an ally asking help from the United States, and Britain. It would get very ugly very quickly, and before you know it, there are people tossing nukes at each other like frisbees.

It's incredible to me that for a piece of land that people would wage nuclear war over it, especially when they know that their people will not survive, and decimate their own people for the ideology they think is right. I'd be all for letting them battle it out, if it weren't for the fact that Americans will get involved, because it will be demanded. Of course, it would probably fall to the Russians to help out as well. I can imagine that with a nuclear war in the middle east China could then make it's move on Taiwan, nearly un-noticed. Of course this is only speculation.