Posted on 05/22/2002 12:59:39 PM PDT by spetznaz
India should acquire the ability to target:
six metropolitan centers including port facilities; one corps-sized offensive formation in its concentration area; three sets of bottlenecks in the strategic communications network; five nuclear capable military airfields; two hydroelectric water storage dams. A total of 17 nuclear engagements. 326 Nair, Nuclear India, p. 170
This is from Vijai Nair a "widely read commentator on nuclear matters."
He also writes in regard to China:
Initially, India needs to create a weapons capability to pull out five to six major industrial centers plus two ports to service China's SSBN fleet. This makes a total of eight nuclear strikes.....
...... the ideal configuration of warhead numbers and yield would be: Two strikes of one megaton each for metropolitan centres and port facilities; two strikes of 15 kt each for battlefield targets; one strike with a yield of between 200 and 500 kt each for dams; one strike of 20 to 50 kt each for military airfields; and one strike each of 15 kt for strategic communication centres.
As for Russia the impetus for their involvement would be due to India being one of Russia's biggest arms purchasers (maybe the biggest even, although China may top that). Russia also has some strategic assets involved here, primarily trade. Another factor is that Russia is always threatened by a future Chinese attack toward moscow, and thus it sees India as one of its strongest allies, possibly the only one (unless the US and NATO were to totally accept Russia into their fold, completely). Thus India is Russia's big buddy.
Another player, albeit minor, is Israel. Israel? Yep! Actually there was a joint strike by the Israeli Mossad and the Indian RAW into Pakistan recently. The Israelis helped kill certain French engineers who were trying to boost Pakistan's submarine tech by building a plant o some type, and in exchange RAW would provide logistics. And again the Israelis view Pakistan as a threat since if Hamas and Mezbollah are to acquire nukes they will most probably come from the Islamic Pakistanis. Hence in a war the Israelis would have to ensure all of Pakis nukes are destroyed since any govt that came after Musharaff would be most probably a theocracy filled with religious fire.
Then there is the US. Like it or not the states would be drawn into this mess, and i am willing to side with us joining the indians. And the basis for this will be the same as that of the Israelis. Obviously the US will try to go for a peaceful solution, but if the worst comes then i would place my bet with the Americans providing 'subtle assistance' to the Indians since that is the safest choice.
China would probably attach India's rear, and also make a move toward Taiwan. Greece would probably choose this time to assault the Turks over the Cyprus affair.
And before we know it there will be certain elements at play that do not bode well for anyone involved (although in this scenario Russia and the states will finally be on the same side at last, which is of some consolation).
and then we see what happens.
I hope this personal opinion helps.
This not only sums up Pakistan/India, it sums us the Islamic world and the West generally.
Great post and thread BTW spetznaz....
Dark Wing also informs me that India has developed a new, extremely inexpensive means of producing tritium in bulk (compared to the US/Russian means), and so likely has a greater proportion and outright number of higher yield fission warheads than Pakistan in its stockpile.
But, IMO, it will only take one nuclear weapon used by either side on even a military target to cause mass panic in both sides' cities, and quick collapse of both sides' economies.
Why?
Too much information, but great post!
If it did go that route...other Arab nations could send their naval assets to resupply Pakistan. If the Indians chose to engage them then it could make for a wider conflict.
Not that I mind...India would be a good proxy to support.
However, I doubt Arab support would go past clandestine mujhihadeen dead men walking streaming across the border from Iran and Afghanistan.
Also...If air superiority can be established by the Indians then it would have a major affect on the ground situation as long as Indian commanders are competent. If they are anything like their data processors then they are pretty hot...~grin~.
If the Indians are serious and they use the correct strategy....they could walk the dog all the way up to Nuclear exchange.
I think without a doubt...they could take the Kashmir in a week or two.
Do you have anything else on this?
A source? I would like to read more on this.
So that makes for pitched battles in large IT staffs (DBA's and programmers) and gangland style warfare between the Circle K's and 7-11's of America.
Lovely.
here's something from Globe-Intel **Globe-Intel** NEWSBREAKS…ANALYSIS… COMMENTARY
Editor-in-Chief Number 75 Carol Adler May 17, 2002 Contributing Editors Gordon Thomas Contributing Writers Mark Dankof…David McGowan…Joseph Ehrlich… John Kusumi… Tariq Saeedi…Takashi “Thomas” Tanemori
INDIA BEHIND MURDER OF FRENCH ENGINEERS, OBSERVERS OPINE MOSSAD INSTRUCTIONS: “GET THE ASSASSINS OF DANNY PEARL” by Tariq Saeedi in Ashbabat and Sergi Pyatakov in Moscow
Western European and Russian observers have stated that in all likelihood India may have engineered the recent brutal killing of French engineers in Karachi who were overseeing construction of Khalid class (Agosta B90) submarines.
“Only India stands to benefit from this massacre [of French engineers],” said a western European diplomat based in Central Asia.
When asked to explain his point of view, he said, “India has recently concluded agreement to build six Scorpene class French submarines. First of these submarines will be ready in 2006 and till that time India has no way to counter the sub-surface superiority of Pakistan's Agosta [submarines]. Moreover, the Indian shipbuilding industry is in no shape to undertake construction of submarines right away.
“It will be at least 2 to 3 years before India can update its shipbuilding facilities to begin construction of Scorpene. India will benefit immensely if the [submarine] construction programme of Pakistan is thwarted.”
A similar view with a new twist was expressed by Genandy Kamarov (not his real name), a retired officer of KGB. He said, “Forgive my perverted mind if I see sinister designs where there may be none.
“But the Karachi incident smacks of RAW-MOSSAD connection.”
Kamarov explained that according to his own sources, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon called in Mossad director Ephraim Halevy in the third week of February and gave “precise instructions” to “get the assassins of Danny Pearl.”
According to Kamarov's theory, “precise instructions” to get Pearl's killers include close collaboration with RAW because Pakistan is one of the few countries where Israel does not have an effective network of its own.
Referring to a recent incident in which an American “free lance journalist” was detained at a Karachi airport because he was carrying a video film showing the entrance gate of Karachi central prison, Kamarov said someone high up intervened and procured release of the “journalist” and the video.
Why the video of main entrance of Karachi jail, asked Kamarov. Is it part of Israeli plan to get at killers of Pearl?
Elaborating on his theory, Kamarov said, “It is the first time since 1972 that an Israeli prime minister has issued direct orders to get at assassins of a Jew. Now, there are reasons to assume that RAW and MOSSAD are working jointly to get at Pearl's killers. Pearl, before his kidnapping, was staying with an Indian lady in Karachi who had been denied a Pakistani visa but somehow managed to get it, and came over to Karachi.
“The same Indian lady intervened for the release of the American journalist who was carrying a video of the Karachi jail.
“What is the connection between Pearl and this other American journalist -- and who is that Indian lady?
“Now, remember that in the shadowy world of espionage and betrayal, there are no friends and no enemies. We all have our jobs to do and we work without emotion, in cold blood.
“If RAW is helping Mossad get the Pearl killers, RAW will want something in return. That ‘something’ can be a workable plan to halt Pakistani submarine plans because at the moment Indian armed forces are superior to Pakistan in every respect but one: they don't have anything to counter the threat posed by Agosta submarines.”
For all intent and purpose, it appears that Kamarov's theory stands on solid ground because the Karachi massacre seems to have achieved a heavy blow to Pakistan's Agosta 90B submarine programme. By extension, it has also caused a substantial damage to Pakistan's economy in terms of investors’ confidence. No one but India stands to gain from this tragedy.
Kamarov added: “Indians cannot hope to get their Scorpene submarines till 2006 and they will do everything to prevent Pakistan from getting an edge over India in terms of sub-surface vessels till that time.”
Tariq Saeedi is a Pakistani journalist based in Turkmenistan for the past four years. He writes for the Balochistan Post, www.balochistanpost.com For archived Globe-Intel issues, click on www.topica.com/lists/gordonthomas/read
B. Nobody, nobody especially some broke wanna-be KGB agent is gonna have access to the orders given directly to the chief of MOSSAD by Ariel Sharon.
If the scenario were correct then Danny Pearl's killers would already be dead. with that said, I do not rule out MOSSAD killing the french engineers....just not under the far flung Austin Powers plot put forth by a PAK.
Thanks for the info.
But it smacks of the percieved Omnipresent ,unstoppable, uncontrollable, imperceptable Zionist world domination conspiracy that comes as a kneejerk reaction to everything that happens on the planet when seeking answers from a Muslim.
I say it is about time we make them stop worrying about conspiracies by raining fusion paths to allah on them. (I trully would not want this, but i am quickly approaching the stage where i might not mind it)
People in the south Asian sub-continent were living on marble floors while your and my ancestors were still living on squalid mud floors, and for thousands of years. You can't be serious to think your misanthropy has anything to do with conservatism or American values. Do you contend that Jefferson was wrong, that all people are not created equal and have no inalienable rights?
The Pakistanis use Chinese plutonium based weapons and have been seriously pushing production of same for the last 15 years. Thier solid fuel missile are Chinese and their longer range liquid fuel missiles are North Korean Scud derivatives.
The Indians produced a bomb decades earlier. However, they chose to go the route of pure internal development with no foreign involvement. This has left them behind in terms of missiles and total warhead count due to poor intelligence on their part.
The US intelligence community took a hard look at both ptograms after the tit for tat nuclear tests and came to the conclusion that the Pakistanis have more bombs (and better missiles) in the numbers you quoted.
The problem for the Pakistanis and Indians is that the only reliable delivery system they both have is jet fighters. The Indians have a Soviet scale integrated air defense system for their ground forces and the Pakistanis do not. Neither has an effective air defense system for their respective cities.
The Indians have achieved air superiority in every war they have fought with Pakistan and the current match up suggests the same outcome in another war.
This means that if the Pakitanis are going to use their nuclear weapons with any degree of reliability. They will have to use them in the first 3-5 days of any war major.
Corrections here - they were Brooke and Garcia class, but one was not returned, as the Pakistani Navy managed to sink one sitting at the pier....
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