Kirk, Cornyn in tight contest
Posted on 05/23/2002 1:44:28 AM PDT by MeekOneGOP
Kirk, Cornyn in tight contest
Poll shows dead heat in race that could be key in control of Senate
05/22/2002
A new poll indicates that Republican John Cornyn and Democrat Ron Kirk are locked in a close race for the Senate, a contest that national party leaders say could be pivotal in determining who controls Congress.
According to the survey, Mr. Cornyn and Mr. Kirk are effectively in a dead heat the Republican attracting 46 percent of likely Texas voters and the Democrat backed by 44 percent. Ten percent were either undecided or declined to answer.
"With so few of the voters undecided almost five months out, both candidates will need to work to earn the margin that will put them over the top," said Democratic pollster Jeff Montgomery of Austin, who conducted the poll.
The survey was the fourth in a yearlong series on state political contests conducted by Montgomery and Associates.
The sharpest divisions were along ethnic lines, with 58 percent of Hispanics and 84 percent of blacks supporting Mr. Kirk. Nearly 57 percent of non-Hispanic whites backed Mr. Cornyn.
The contest was close across most regions of the state, although Mr. Cornyn led in Houston while Mr. Kirk was easily ahead in South Texas. In Mr. Kirk's home area of Dallas-Fort Worth, the former Dallas mayor held a five-point advantage over his GOP rival.
Both political camps said the results underscored expectations that the Senate race would be extremely competitive.
"We are situated right where we need to be," Mr. Kirk said. "If we continue to stay on message and talk about an agenda that's good for all of Texas, that puts the interest of families and business and children ahead of partisanship, then we're going to be fine."
Cornyn spokesman Dave Beckwith said that Mr. Kirk's name identification was somewhat higher among likely voters because he's well-known in the Dallas area, which accounts for a large percentage of the state's population, and because he just spent more than $2 million on television commercials to win the Democratic nomination.
"It continues to be a very competitive race," said Mr. Beckwith.
As for the differences in support among ethnic and racial groups, Mr. Beckwith said the campaign was "very encouraged by Hispanics [who] are leaning toward Cornyn. I think by the time the election is over, that number will be substantially higher."
The survey of 1,066 Texas residents who had voted in at least one of the last two general elections was conducted May 7 to May 13. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, which means the results could vary by that much in either direction.
With Democrats controlling the Senate by a single vote, both political parties understand that the outcome in any one of several potentially close races across the country could determine who emerges with a majority in November.
The poll comes as Mr. Kirk was in Washington to interview potential campaign workers, to court financial backers and to appear at a conference of the New Democrat Network, a 6-year-old organization of centrist Democrats that backs candidates with advice, ideas and money.
Mr. Kirk sought to shrug off reporters' questions about whether he was surprised that President Bush had personally attacked him as an "obstructionist" in a recent interview.
"I'm disappointed but not surprised," he said. "It's the political season. I don't think that anybody should expect the president to say that much favorable about a Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate.
"My track record, if it says anything about me, it says I am anything but an obstructionist," he said.
At the conference, Mr. Kirk took part in a panel discussion about the fall election with Democratic House candidates Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Rahm Emanuel of Chicago, a former Bill Clinton aide.
Mr. Kirk and Mr. Cuellar said education and health care were the issues Texas voters cared most about, and on which they trusted Democrats more than Republicans.
In response to a question from the audience about terrorism, Mr. Kirk candidly said it would not be pragmatic to oppose Mr. Bush on the issue.
"I would say terrorism is not an issue, in the sense that anybody foolish enough to be anything but supportive of the administration's approach to the war on terrorism is not going to be a viable candidate," he said.
On Sunday, Mr. Kirk joined the call for an independent investigation into the Bush administration's handling of terrorism warnings it received last summer before the Sept. 11 attacks.
Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network, said Tuesday that his group's political action committee planned to give $10,000 each to the campaigns of Mr. Kirk, Mr. Cuellar and Mr. Emanuel.
E-mail wslater@dallasnews.com
ARE 44% of Texans in this poll on drugs??????
In the Senate race, Attorney General John Cornyn is running neck-and-neck with Ron Kirk, the former Dallas mayor, 46.3 percent to 43.7 percent. Again, only 8.7 percent were undecided, and 1.4 percent declined to state a preference.
A Blum and Weprin poll, conducted 4/1-4/02 for the Dallas Morning News; surveyed 1,679 registered voters; margin of error +/- 2.5% (Hotline sources, 4/15). Tested: ex-Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk (D) and Attorney General John Cornyn (R).
General election matchup:
Kirk 43%
Cornyn 39
Undec. 16
BENNETT PETTS BLUMENTHAL (D)
A Bennett Petts Blumenthal (D) poll, conducted 3/24-27/02, surveyed 800 registered voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 4/15). Tested: ex-Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk (D) and Attorney General John Cornyn (R).
General election matchup:
Kirk 43%
Cornyn 41
Undec. 16
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In a trial heat between Sharp, a Democrat, and Republican Dewhurst, Sharp took 46.4% of the statewide vote, compared to 42.4% for Dewhurst--a four-point lead in a poll with a three-point margin of error. 10% were undecided, and 1.1% refused.//
This race is a tossup...I think Sharp might win the LT.GOV race
That was due to crossover votes for a popular governor. With three polls now showing this race a dead heat, I don't think we can expect the crossovers again.
While losing this race would be a political embarassment for the President, I do not think he would be considered a joke because of it. But it would indeed put in jeopardy his hopes of the GOP regaining the Senate. I hope Phil Gramm knows what he's doing.
Also, it would be more than Political embarassment, it would be rejection of what GOP stands for....and the would be a 100% rejection of W 's Presidency....by Texans....that's how I see it.......
If Kirk wins, it means the Texas said no to :
1) W tax cut or agree to scale back of W tax cut
2) No to ANWR.
3) No to Conservative Judges.
4) Yes to INDPT body to investigate W handling of pre-9-11 memo..etc.
5) Yes to Daschle.
6) No to Phil Gramm
7) No to conservative Ideas.
8 ) yes to Bubbu/Rats .
9) Yes to Abortion
and 10) Yes to some kind of gun control
I think this race will be close, but Cornyn has build in advantages, which will pull him over the top over Kirk...
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