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To: biblewonk
The economics seems to work very well with the 1.7 cent PTC. As the technology continues to bring the prices down I would either expect wind to develop faster than the available money from the PTC or the PTC will have to start shrinking to less than 1.7 cents per kwhr.

I have no idea where you are getting those numbers, but the last time I looked wind was pretty expensive about 6 cents per kwh, but the tax subsidies helped bring it down into the competitive price range. One of the things not well discussed is the amount of blade maintenance (i.e. cleaning) and other kinds of maintenance required. Depending upon tower height and design (read that trade offs between high initial cost versus high maintenance cost) maintanence at a wind farm can be surprisingly expensive. Unless of course you just run them till they fail as some developers have done. Everything I have seen does not indicate that wind is a "cheap source" of energy. It may be cost effective under certain high fuel cost or inflation assumptions and certain tax credit assumptions, but by itself it is not cheap, at least from what I have seen. The firm I am with has recently worked with some folks trying to come up with fairly priced land leases for windfarms, so I don't think my economics are too far off base from the projects I have been involved with in the past.

17 posted on 05/29/2002 7:23:08 AM PDT by Robert357
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To: Robert357
I have no idea where you are getting those numbers,

Well, the Production Tax Credit gives wind power producers an extra 1.7 cents per kwhr. They add that to what ever they charge on the market and they are supposedly able to make a profit with it. I assume that someone is making a profit.

but the last time I looked wind was pretty expensive about 6 cents per kwh,

I've heard electricity prices from 2 cents all the way to over a dollar per kwhr in California. I think I pay 7 cents here in Iowa. I guess to say "pretty expensive" doesn't quantify it. Pretty expensive could mean that my cost for the electricity goes up 20 percent or 200 percent. If it were only 20 percent for all wind power I'd call that cheap. 200 percent is a different story.

but the tax subsidies helped bring it down into the competitive price range. One of the things not well discussed is the amount of blade maintenance (i.e. cleaning) and other kinds of maintenance required. Depending upon tower height and design (read that trade offs between high initial cost versus high maintenance cost) maintanence at a wind farm can be surprisingly expensive. Unless of course you just run them till they fail as some developers have done.

That would have to be some of the failed developments in California. Those are overpriced inefficient little toys compared to todays windmills. What kind of windmills did you look at when you were trying to develop a project?

The new Lagerwey 2.0 MW 72 meter windmill has no transmission and only needs to be serviced once per year. The others need service twice per year. I know that the junky 80-120 kw units in california need lots of service but in the last 20 years things have improved by about a factor of 10 overall cost of electricity.

19 posted on 05/29/2002 8:43:17 AM PDT by biblewonk
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