Naval Moves Pose Pyschological Threat to Pakistan

STRATFOR ^ | 23 May 2002 | Staff

[Axion]

Naval Moves Pose Pyschological Threat to Pakistan
23 May 2002

India has dispatched five ships from its Eastern Naval Fleet to the Arabian Sea amid heightening tensions with Pakistan. The ship movement mimics a similar action during the 1999 Kargil conflict, when Indian naval vessels effectively bottled up the Pakistani navy in the port of Karachi.

The ships -- a ''Kashin''-class missile destroyer, a frigate and three missile corvettes -- will be placed under the administrative control of the Western Naval Fleet (WNF). The ships will bolster the already significant WNF, which includes India's aircraft carrier, the INS Viraant, along with guided-missile destroyers and kilo-class submarines capable of launching Klub cruise missiles. The Viraant, which previously was scheduled to join in naval exercises with the French aircraft carrier Charles De Gaulle on May 17, did not take part because of operational reasons -- in other words, the current tensions with Pakistan.

India learned the importance of bottling up Pakistan's navy after the two countries' 1965 war, when Pakistani ships managed to shell India's western coast. During the 1971 war, India dispatched warships to blockade Karachi and East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. Small Indian missile patrol ships carried out limited strikes on oil facilities in Karachi while India's aircraft carrier INS Vikrant patrolled East Pakistan, launching air strikes at port facilities and air fields.

Similarly, India dispatched additional ships around Karachi during the 1999 Kargil conflict, though New Delhi refrained from expanding the confrontation at that time and Pakistan's navy remained in port. Learning from its mistake of having only one main deep-water naval port, Pakistan opened a second navy base in Omara in June 2000 that could accommodate eight ships and four submarines. For India, blockading the Pakistani navy now means splitting its forces to close off two ports.

The recent deployment of five ships to the Arabian Sea is less a military act than a psychological one on New Delhi's part. Pakistan depends upon the sea for nearly all of its trade -- and most of this comes through Karachi. Merchant ships are much less likely to travel to Pakistan when there appears to be a high risk of war. By shifting five ships, India takes a low-cost step that could have a disproportionate impact on Pakistan's economy. Karachi is also Pakistan's main import facility for oil, and its key refineries are located along the coast.

Should the current standoff break out into war, India would be in a position to strike a deadly blow on Pakistan's oil infrastructure. But even if the redeployment is more posture than action, Islamabad is still likely to feel the noose tightening around its economy.

[Fish out of Water]

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[MonroeDNA]

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