Nevertheless, the analysis should not be discounted.
FMCDH
The threat of Saddam aquiring nuclear weapons is clear, but may well be beside the point. We worry about the potential for rogue states and terrorists getting WMDs and using them, perhaps irresponsibly (read suicidally). We worry particulary about Bin Laden's attempts to get nukes, chemical and biological weapons, etc. This may be a "fait accompli". Just because Bin Laden currently does not have his index finger directly above the nuclear button, does not mean that his goals are not rapidly being approached.
A reality the US government and many of us have tried to discount and ignore, is that the government of Pakistan is heavily infiltrated with Al Qaida sympathisers, if not direct operatives. We listen to official level statements of policy from Pakistani government officials, and apparently accept them at face value. Right now I am watching on FOX News Sunday a female Pakistani diplomat repeatedly assure us that Pakistan has "denounced terrorism, and will not allow terrorist activities on our territories". Meaningless. If the Pakistani foreign service says a thing, is that the last word? Pakistan was an open and enthusiastic supporter of the Taliban and by inference Al Qaida just last August. Has everthing changed since then? Of course not.
Since 9/11 Musharaf has done a 180° in his policies, but he is not the whole government, may not be in total control, and may not have been doing more than covering his behind for our benefit. Bin Laden's agenda is going forward, regardless of what the central Pakistani government says. And that agenda is world war.
Pundits and we here at FR have wondered out loud when and where Bin Laden will make his next move. Since the US "strategy" if you can call it that, has been simple and unfortuately shortsighted reaction to the attrocity of 9/11, realizing only in hindsight what has been going on for almost two decades, we expect similar "tit for tat" moves on the chess board that is "The War on Terrorism."
Bin Laden's operatives drop hints at all kinds of terrorist actions, and then watch the confusion and silly political recriminations those empty threats create in our country. They laugh. They play with us like one would a kitten, taunting us with a toy on a string. We may have blasted the Al Qaida largely out of Afghanistan, but Pakistan is right next door. We are in no position to to do to Pakistan what we did in Afghanistan, to somehow "get at" Al Qaida, destroy and replace the government and blast out infestations of Bin Laden's terrorists. They are largely safe in Pakistan, because they ARE thoroughly infiltrated into the Pakistani government, Army, and Intelligence Service. We are both attacking and blindly supporting Bin Laden's goals in the largest sense, because we refuse to see the "Chess moves" beyond the level of Nation States, Governments, and Geopgraphical enemies.
Bin Laden HAS BEEN making his moves. But like a Warner Brothers cartoon, he is ignoring the limted chess board we concentrate on, and is sawing a hole in the floor around the entire table we sit at. He has learned NOT to simply strike out and react. He is concentrating on his ultimate goals, and in those... his ultimate victory. Bin Laden wants to ignite a world wide war between all of Islam and the West, particularly the US. He cares not for the welfare of the poor pawns, the people of Pakistan and India. Imagine how untenible and impossible to manage the war on terrorism will become if Pakistan and India fight an all out nuclear war! Bin Laden will be elsewhere, certainly. He will not suffer. Many of his operatives will become dust in a blink of an eye, martyrs all. All to achieve Osama's vision of world wide Armagedon, with a decidely Islamo-fascistic outcome. This author is on to this reality, perhaps we should consider thinking about it also.