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Pakistan has two real advantages. One is that India doesn't have an operational missle capability to deliver nukes, while Pakistan does. Indian ones would have to be delivered by aircraft, which means they might be intercepted. That makes the question of whether Pakistan could win the air war rather important. If they think they can, they might think the Indians could not deliver their nukes. But if they think the Indians will win the air war before too long, then they would expect to be vunerable to a counterstrike if they used their own. This uncertainty is dangerous, because it tempts Pakistani commanders to gamble on avoiding a retaliation.

The second real edge they have is that, while they don't have radar homing air to air missles, the heat seekers they do have are darn good ones. Both US AIM-9 sidewinders in quite recent models, and French Magics about as capable as the older one of those (the AIM-9L). Both are better than what the Indians have in the same category. They are too fast and maneuverable to dodge, aren't easily fooled by countermeasures like flares, and can track a plane from any angle, not just from behind like older heat seekers. If they can get close enough, those missles could give them an edge. If the Indians can beat them at long range, they would't get that chance. The Indians also have numbers on them - and practically every other edge (size of army, the navy, etc). But there is enough assymmetry in the capabilities of the two air forces, that the Pakistanis might gamble on their edge mattering more.