I think you are a much more informed than most and adding many wonderful comments. Yes, anti-trust law is amorphous and subjective. You are very wise to know that.
I had a graduate business ethics course from one of the smartest men I have ever meet. We used anti-trust case studies as the basis of the business ethics course. The reason was that some folks who did absolutely the right thing were ruined by enforcement of anti-trust laws and some who were crooks were let off. At the end of the course the professor brought us to the point of understanding the cub scout motto, "...to do our best."
As long as one does one's best and acts according to his or her ethical principals, then if you go to jail or are ruined, you will have the satisfaction of knowing in your heart that you were true to your own values. Life does not come with a guarantee that it is "fair." Many of the great tragedies in literature have people who are "tried by the gods" to see if they will be true to their own values or crumble to temptation. The most we can hope for is to be true to our moral compass and prey for the best. The rewards and punishments in life are fickle and unpredictable.
I suspect that many involved with the California power market who are feeling uneasy about the FERC, Justice Dept. and SEC investigations felt the temptation for easy and quick money either for their direct personal gain or for the reputation that scoring big for one's company creates. What I find the most distressing is what I have learned about the ethics and probably anti-trust violations associated with many actions by the Cal-ISO. When the dust settles, I would not be surprised if several Cal-ISO officials don't end up in jail.
But I'm pretty certain I can't hold my breath that long. NOTHING happens before the election, write it down in big black letters. Doofus needs yet another scandal like a moose needs a hatrack, and the sundry CA authorities won't do a thing.
The Feds? Not a chance, Doofus would just scream about Federal interference (which of course he adores when it suits his purposes), and there's nothing in it politically for the Bush administration. Besides, there's this little matter of rearranging the deck chairs on the U.S.S. Intelligence, and miscellaneous CYAs to execute. Nope, the Feds are on the sideline, too, until at least next year.
Too bad, really, but what can ya do? (shrug)