The Israelis have been held back by us. We introduced 2 UN resolutions demanding that Israel pull back from its military response 5-6 weeks ago; Powell made numerous statements calling on Israel to restrain its response, and Bush did the same. It is true that the Israelis have been told to stand down by us in the recent past -- the "Powell" doctrine. However, the speech I heard today sounded very much like the "Cheney-Rumsfeld" doctrine has won the debate. He basically called Arafat a terrorists without using his name directly. The quote goes something like this:"The Palistinian people deserve new leadership not compromised by terrorism." Using logical inference that means Arafat. The reason he didn't use Arafats name directly may include that he wants to save that card for another day when it will be a better play. From this alone, I am quite satified that he is not caving in. Instead he was wise and disciplined enough to stick with diplomatic speak.
Secondly, Israel just anounced that it was going to do major military operations to root out terrorist organizations. So far, I havn't heard Pres. Bush or Powell for that matter, tell the Isrealis to stand down on their current operation. That might change if things start to get too hot. I did hear Pres. Bush say that Israel has the right to defend itself. To me that is giving tacit approval to the current major military action.
Finally, the Israeli response to the speech has been quite postive so far. So it seems to me they are singing from the same song sheet.
The reason he did not mention Arafat by name is because he does not have an alternative. Instead he wants to shift power from the executive to the legislative branch of government and then hold parliamentary elections.
The flaw in Bush's plan is that he is placing too much faith in democracy. President Bush made a noble and idealistic speech, but the Palestinians are going to vote on the basis of what they have been experiencing, and what they have experienced is a massive invasion of their territory. This will not result in moderation in voting behavior and there is a real chance that Hamas will win the upcoming elections.
In order to compete with Hamas and other radicals, Arafat will have to appear uncompromising which will hurt efforts to get him to crack down on terror. When the Israelis then continue to launch military incursions, it will reinforce the view that Arafat is not able to protect his people.
The reason that some Israelis are supporting this is that they are hoping that it will fail, and that when it fails they will have the green light to do what they want.
The fear that moderates will sell out the Palestinian cause will also motivate Palestinians to vote for the radicals.
It would make more sense to impose a solution and then ask the Palestinian people to vote on whether to approve it.