Davis ekes out 7-point lead over Simon (Field Poll)

San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 07/11/2002 | Lynda Gledhill

[Pokey78]

Sacramento -- Despite Gov. Gray Davis' problems with a state contracting scandal, a budget deficit and criticism over his fund-raising tactics, California voters reluctantly give him a 7-point lead over Los Angeles businessman Bill Simon, a Field Poll released today shows.

[hobbes1]

The poll of 647 likely voters was taken June 25-July 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
The survey also found Davis with a significant advantage in support among voters in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County, Latino voters and those with annual incomes of less than $40,000.

Tells you all you need to know about the poll.....

[Russ]

This poll certainly doesn't look like the others we've seen reported lately here on FR. I would question the accuracy of a poll that only asked 647 likely voters in a state the size of California.

[truthkeeper]

This has got to be a joke. I live in So Cal, and even the liberals hate his guts.

[Guillermo]

Just more of the same. Denial. When a poll says the Republican is leading, you can hear the shouts of joy. When it's for the Democrat, the validity of the poll is always questioned.

Either accept all the opinion polls, or none of them.

[Tacis]

"Simon was backed 71 percent to 11 percent by those identifying themselves as "strongly conservative" and 67 percent to 14 percent among Republicans. "

There are, of course, outspoken, honest folks in California. But, I wonder how many Californians, when polled by someone from Berkeley would say, "Yes, you transexual, fairy freak with 30 pounds of body piercing jewelry and blue dyed hair, I am 'strongly conservative'." Even a political polster in a suit and tie in California would reek of the stench of the ultra-left wing, extremist liberal, corrupt democrap control. And, of course, a guy claiming to be from the media would be even worse. I simply don't believe that the good, solid folks in California would EVER honestly answer a polster's questions.

[goldstategop]

Latinos and voters with less than $40,000 income constitute a large portion of the Field poll sample. They're also unlikely voters which makes it dishonest. Taken them out and Bill Simon comes out ahead. The liberals had to manipulate the results to show GrayDown ahead but even with the small sample size and questionable methodology, he's lost HALF his support since the spring. And he's not gaining any significant support outside the hard core Left Rat base. The assertion that people who dislike an incumbent would vote to keep him on the job is belied by political history. Bottom line: the liberals are whistling past the graveyard because they know Bill Simon is gonna win in November and they're desperate to entertain the fantasy that despite all his horrendous negatives, GrayDown could somehow still win. They should enjoy it while it lasts for its not going to get better for GrayDown over the next couple of months.

[goldstategop]

Especially not from the liberal Field poll. Most of the respondents are probably just telling the media what it wants to hear. ROLFMFAO!!!!

[ExSoldier]

The poll originated at UC BERKLEY. 'Nuff said.

[goldstategop]

Virtually EVERY other poll shows Simon AHEAD. Only the Field poll shows GrayDown AHEAD which means either they have access to data no one else has access to or they're just guessing. I'm betting they're just guessing.

[1L]

Just more of the same. Denial. When a poll says the Republican is leading, you can hear the shouts of joy. When it's for the Democrat, the validity of the poll is always questioned.

That's because polls virtually always understate Republican support. When a poll grudgingly shows a Republican leading, it probably means he is really leading by a lot.

Either accept all the opinion polls, or none of them.

You need to educate yourself more on what goes on in polling. Do you mean accept all the results of one particular poll, or accept all polls or none? Ever heard of flawed methodology, bad sample, etc.? How about track record.

There are really only 2 polls with a track record for accuracy: Zogby's Presidential election poll (national) and Portrait of America's state polls. Every other poll I expect to show a stronger support for RATs than there really is due to the sample size containing more RATs, as a percentage, than are likely to vote. Contrary to your simplistic view, it is not inconsistent to praise the results of a Republican in the lead of some poll and dismiss the results of a poll with the head RAT in the lead -- especially polls within 10 points, like this one.

[CA Conservative]

The Field poll is notorious for always leaning about 20 points to the left. It is a joke out here in California.

[goldstategop]

16% are undecided and 9% say they'll vote for a third party candidate. The latter is a more interesting stat for if the Greens get over 5% that will come at GrayDown's expense. And the 16% undecideds are the type of voters who almost always break for the challenger. GrayDown hasn't broken 50% in the polls since the primaries and that's a sign his campaign is in near terminal condition. And no one has ever gotten re-elected with the kind of negatives he's gotten from the electorate.

[Munson]

Then Simon is ahead 13% then :P

[Guillermo]

Wasn't there a Field Poll which said Simon was up by 9 a few weeks ago??

Hey, don't get me wrong. I'm 100% for Simon, but he's a longshot. California is simply too wacko to vote for a righty in a statewide election. Not to mention it's a mid-term election, meaning the party outside of the WH usually wins big.

Be prepared for Dem control of the House, a gain in the Senate of a few seats and the loss of several State Houses.

[goldstategop]

The last Field Poll showed GrayDown up by 14 points. If we're to believe the new one that just came out, he's accomplished the remarkable feat of losing HALF of his support in three months! If this is the Field Poll's definition of a GrayDown victory, I'd sure love to see what their description of a GrayDown defeat would look like. I can't wait to find out.

[Ed_in_LA]

The Field Poll has never shown Simon ahead of Davis. Their most recent one before this one was taken in April, and it showed Davis with a 14 point lead. The polls showing Simon ahead of Davis have mainly been conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican polling firm.

[NormsRevenge]

Be prepared for Dem control of the House, a gain in the Senate of a few seats and the loss of several State Houses.

What dimension are you living in? The Dems will control the House ..

HAA!! Don't believe all the liebral spin from the media and all the whoopsters for socialism..

A lot of folks are fed up with the Rats. They are a dying Party because of their own foolish and reckless behaviour.

What has haPPened the last few years that makes anyone think that the Rats, under ClinTon, have even tried to improve this nation.

Davi$ is ClinTon's image in a Death Mask for California. Any hopes of prosperity and justice returning for the people are being dashed everyday the Socialists in the State Legislature are allowed to wage their war on our freedoms and rights.


DUMP DAVI$ & the Den of Socialists

GO SIMON

[dalereed]

This article has removed one critical element that was included in the almost identical article in the San Diego Union Tribune today.

The poll was conducted in Spanish and English! That fact alone is an indication of predetermining the desired result, a factor that is always part of a Field Poll.