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'Fannie and Freddie Were Lenders': U.S. Real Estate Bubble Nears Its End
Executive Intelligence Review. ^ | 6/21/02 | Richard Freeman

Posted on 07/15/2002 9:25:42 AM PDT by AdamSelene235

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To: Petronski
By the way, you wouldn't happen to work in the precious metals industry, would you?

Negative.

Physics.

61 posted on 07/15/2002 11:05:19 AM PDT by AdamSelene235
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To: IYAS9YAS
She lives in the Napa Valley area. She's going to wind up shelling out over $250,000 for this 900 sq. foot home on a lot that is about 70 by 100. I live on a lot that is 70 x 95 with an 82 year old fixer-upper (600 upstairs and an unfinished part basement at about 250 sq ft) in southwestern Idaho and mine only cost me $36,000. The only drawback to mine is that it is one bedroom and in a not-so-great neighborhood. She lives in wine country.

LOL!

62 posted on 07/15/2002 11:07:15 AM PDT by Joe Hadenuf
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To: Phantom Lord
Thats funny, the Freddie and Fannie "Debt to Income" guideline is 28% for the mortgage payment (including property tax, hazard insurance, and private mortgage insurance if required) and 36% on the "back end". Back end is the total monthly debt including the mortgage.

I totally disagree with you. I do Fannie/Freddie loans all day long with front end ratio's between 40 and 50%. Granted, the borrowers who get those approvals are usually 680+ FICO's but it is very common. Those loans are about 30% of our business. Then when you add in the subprime which is the other 70%, those loans almost never have a front end below 45%. I believe that lending practices have been based on the expectation of appreciation. If, and when, that comes to an end, the bubble WILL burst.

63 posted on 07/15/2002 11:08:42 AM PDT by mickeylee
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To: Joe Hadenuf
In the suburbs of Minneapolis/St. Paul, people apparently have make a bid of how much over asking price they're willing to pay. The homeowner takes bids for a couple of days, then sells to the highest. Madness.
64 posted on 07/15/2002 11:09:07 AM PDT by Indrid Cold
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Comment #65 Removed by Moderator

To: DuncanWaring
No, it is based on GROSS income.
66 posted on 07/15/2002 11:11:23 AM PDT by mickeylee
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To: mickeylee
I do as well. I use DU to underwrite them. And unless their scores are real high and their assests large, DU doesnt like high ratios.
67 posted on 07/15/2002 11:16:49 AM PDT by Phantom Lord
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To: AdamSelene235
Okay everyone. Lyndon LaRouche has given us all the word! Sell your homes, buy gold and live in a hut. Sing Kumbya around the campfires and make Lyndon LaRouche your sole heir. Once the will is filed, his representatives will be calling on you.
68 posted on 07/15/2002 11:19:33 AM PDT by Redleg Duke
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To: Indrid Cold
The homeowner takes bids for a couple of days, then sells to the highest. Madness.

Much of this real-estate trend is due in fact that a lot of folks have just bailed out of the stock market as we did. Better to go to Vegas if you want to gamble.

Here in So. Cal it is a varity of factors that's driving prices up. One is lack of available land, and very few are selling. Supply and demand!

69 posted on 07/15/2002 11:20:40 AM PDT by Joe Hadenuf
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To: Rebelbase
Not BS. Here in Northern Virginia, and in the adjacent Montgomery County, Maryland $1,000,000 homes sit in the shadows of the really big homes.
70 posted on 07/15/2002 11:21:37 AM PDT by billhilly
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To: dalereed
Housing is going to collapse and I think it will be in the near future.

I hope so! I want to buy a house, but getting k$30 together for a down payment is a significant challenge...

71 posted on 07/15/2002 11:24:45 AM PDT by Chemist_Geek
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To: AdamSelene235
Do you mean to say they have guaranteed 40 times the value of their collateral? I find that hard to believe.

Yes. The WSJ reported it as 60 to 1. God knows what it really is, they are exempt from SEC regulations, you know.

Yahoo currently shows it as 37 to 1.

Can you show me your calculations, I'm feeling a bit dense today. Which two statistics are you dividing to get 40 to 1?

72 posted on 07/15/2002 11:33:24 AM PDT by Petronski
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To: oc-flyfish
You say everything but California is "too cold or too dry."

Any Floridian responds: LOL.

Every point in the state of Florida is both warmer, and wetter, than any point at all in the state of California.

That means that, yes, even northernmost Florida is warmer in January, and throughout the year, than San Diego. Rainfall in Florida rages between 48 and 64 inches, which exceeds everything in Calif. except some mountain slopes in the far northwest inhabited only by spotted owls and Bigfoot.

73 posted on 07/15/2002 11:34:27 AM PDT by crystalk
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To: Chemist_Geek
Housing is going to collapse and I think it will be in the near future. I hope so! I want to buy a house, but getting k$30 together for a down payment is a significant challenge...

How thoughtful of you. About 100 million homeowners should lose their shirts just so you can get a house without some sacrifice.

74 posted on 07/15/2002 11:35:27 AM PDT by billhilly
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To: crystalk
Any Floridian responds: LOL.

And Californians say enjoy it. Unless you are standing in the water on the coast of Florida, the weather is hellish. Humidity so high it was choking. I have been there. Couldn't wait to leave. :o

75 posted on 07/15/2002 11:38:43 AM PDT by Joe Hadenuf
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To: spokanite
Because lumber was much cheaper 100 years ago, the interior finish of older homes is superior to most interior work today.

But the actual building, at least in New England, is much superior in strength to the buildings of 100 years ago.

For example, the framing method used 100 years ago is called a balloon frame in which the exterior wall studs were run full length from the sill to the eave and the floor joists (much undersized by todays standards) were hung off a 3/4" ribbon let into the studs. A fire started in the basement would rush up the exterior walls and fully involve the house faster than you could run up the stairs.

Todays houses are built using what is known as a platform frame, in which each section is framed independently and bears its load directly on the framing below. This system has its own built in fire-stops.

It would be too long winded to go into an total explanation of why today's framing methods are superior, but there is one example.

When people tell me, "They don't build 'em like they used to" my stock reply is, "They don't let them."

In my view, having been in the game for over thirty years, the two main causes in the rise of home prices is the governments inflation of the dollar and the rise of the regulatory state.

76 posted on 07/15/2002 11:43:02 AM PDT by metesky
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To: AdamSelene235
"Already in 2001, one out of every ten homes for sale in the United States was priced at $1,000,000 or more."

One has to read that sentence carefully to see that the author is pointing out only that high-priced homes are "for sale" in greater proportion than their percentage of the market in sum.

77 posted on 07/15/2002 11:46:02 AM PDT by Southack
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To: billhilly
"Not BS. Here in Northern Virginia, and in the adjacent Montgomery County, Maryland $1,000,000 homes sit in the shadows of the really big homes."

Yes, there are a scattered enclaves of high dollar Real-Estate througout urban locations in the country but these areas make up only a tiny fraction of all private housing. It is ridiculous for the author to claim that 1 in 10 homes for sale in the United States are priced at $1,000,000 or more.

78 posted on 07/15/2002 11:49:21 AM PDT by Rebelbase
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To: Petronski
Can you show me your calculations, I'm feeling a bit dense today. Which two statistics are you dividing to get 40 to 1?

Total debt Fannie&Freddie :

$ 2,600,000,000,000

Total cash Fannie & Freddie:

$ 59,000,000,000

Debt to cash :

$ 2,600,000,000,000 / $ 59,000,000,000 = 44

I'm sure you will be happy pay what ever it takes in taxes to bail them out.

79 posted on 07/15/2002 11:56:45 AM PDT by AdamSelene235
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To: Southack; All
I just called a Realtor friend and had them pull up some stats on my location. Currently there are 8375 homes on the market in my regional area. 46 of those homes are priced at $1,000,000 or more.

That is 1/2 of 1% of the total market and I'm in the 3rd largest market of my state.

Can anyone else check their markets?

80 posted on 07/15/2002 11:57:46 AM PDT by Rebelbase
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