Posted on 07/15/2002 2:42:39 PM PDT by knighthawk
IRAQ'S Saddam Hussein is no more than three years away from developing a usable nuclear weapon, according to the latest assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency in the US.
Details of the assessment, obtained by The Australian show the CIA believes Mr Hussein has been able to continue to acquire fissile material in sufficient quantities to build at least several such weapons within two to three years.
The CIA believes Iraq has also continued developing its missile program.
Nuclear weapons deliverable by missiles would be a deadly risk to all Iraq's neighbours, especially Israel, Kuwait and possibly Saudi Arabia. Israel is the only country in the region with a known nuclear weapons delivery capability.
The prospect of Mr Hussein acquiring nuclear weapons is adding urgency to US efforts to remove the Iraqi dictator from office and secure a more cooperative government in Baghdad.
But some CIA analysts believe an even greater regional threat is posed by Iraq's programs to "weaponise" biological agents.
While Mr Hussein is known to have used chemical weapons against Kurds in his own country and against the Iranians in the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, this form of weapon is regarded as a lesser regional security threat.
Though several thousand of people are believed to have died from these incidents, the technical difficulties in making chemical weapons an effective weapon of mass destruction are formidable.
Therefore, the CIA is much more fearful of what Mr Hussein has been doing with biological weapons.
The agency has details of numerous so-called dual-use facilities, which ostensibly serve a peaceful purpose but are really used to manufacture biological weapons. Several are located in Iraqi hospitals, according to the CIA.
The CIA's assessment is that the threat of Mr Hussein's regime developing weapons of mass destruction is greater than the danger of it sponsoring international terrorism. Nonetheless, the possibility of it providing a weapon of mass destruction to a terrorist group, such as al-Qa'ida, remains a nightmare scenario.
But the assessment of the Bush administration after an exhaustive inter-agency review is that there is no "smoking gun" linking Iraq to the terrorist attacks of September 11.
Iraq has sponsored a great deal of terrorism in the past, mainly through the Abu Nidal group.
But its links with al-Qa'ida are more murky. The US has evidence of some al-Qa'ida activity in areas of northern Iraq that are not fully under Mr Hussein's control.
Middle East list
If people want on or off this list, please let me know.
He's been 3 years away for the last 20 years.
Stay Safe !
Other Names
Fatah Revolutionary Council
Arab Revolutionary Brigades
Black September
Revolutionary Organization of Socialist Muslims
Description
International terrorist organization led by Sabri al-Banna. Split from PLO in 1974. Made up of various functional committees, including political, military, and financial.
Activities
Has carried out terrorist attacks in 20 countries, killing or injuring almost 900 persons. Targets include the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Israel, moderate Palestinians, the PLO, and various Arab countries. Major attacks included the Rome and Vienna airports in December 1985, the Neve Shalom synagogue in Istanbul and the Pan Am flight 73 hijacking in Karachi in September 1986, and the City of Poros day-excursion ship attack in Greece in July 1988. Suspected of assassinating PLO deputy chief Abu Iyad and PLO security chief Abu Hul in Tunis in January 1991. ANO assassinated a Jordanian diplomat in Lebanon in January 1994 and has been linked to the killing of the PLO representative there. Has not attacked Western targets since the late 1980s.
Strength
A few hundred plus limited overseas support structure.
Location/Area of Operation
Al-Banna relocated to Iraq in December 1998, where the group maintains a presence. Has an operational presence in Lebanon in the Bekaa Valley and several Palestinian refugee camps in coastal areas of Lebanon. Also has a limited presence in Sudan and Syria, among others, although financial problems and internal disorganization have reduced the group's activities and capabilities. Authorities shut down the ANO's operations in Libya and Egypt in 1999. Has demonstrated ability to operate over wide area, including the Middle East, Asia, and Europe.
External Aid
Has received considerable support, including safehaven, training, logistic assistance, and financial aid from Iraq, Libya, and Syria (until 1987), in addition to close support for selected operations.
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