Montenegro: Brussels U-turn on New State

In a significant policy switch, Europe is demanding a federation between Montenegro and Serbia as a precondition for possible EU membership

The European Union has ditched its plan for a loose union between Serbia and Montenegro in favour of a federal state with strong economic links.

The policy switch, confirmed earlier this month, came as a blow to Montenegro which had long campaigned for its own outright independence but grudgingly settled in March for the loose union with Serbia as prescribed by Javier Solana, EU High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security.

Since then the European Commission has changed its view and decided that the March agreement did not match the already established model for EU aspiring Balkan countries. This model requires a single market, unified tariffs and joint customs systems as pre-requisites.

The standard was laid down two years ago by the Stabilisation and Association Agreement, SAA - an accord, experts believe, which will serve as a test of the EU's success in the Balkans.

The policy change, which has long been suspected, was outlined by the European Commissioner for External Relations, Chris Patten, when he met behind closed doors with Serbian and Montenegrin representatives in Belgrade on July 3, according to officials attending the meeting. Before this visit, the Podgorica leadership had been informed of the shift in strategy, but didn't take it seriously.

Source at the Belgrade meeting said Montenegro's president Milo Djukanovic flew into a rage when Patten confirmed the U-turn. But it seems there's nothing he can do as the EU Council of Ministers, meeting on June 17 in Luxembourg, agreed that if Serbia and Montenegro want to join Europe - one of Djukanovic's main ambitions - they must become a federal state with harmonised customs and tariffs.

It was a bitter pill for Djukanovic. The West had championed his push for independence during the rule of former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic. After his fall, the international community set its face against an independent Montenegro.

In March, Djukanovic was able to tell disgruntled supporters at home that Montenegro would become part of a confederation, which allowed for the possibility of independence after three years.

At the Belgrade meeting earlier this month, Serbia and Montenegro were told they must hurry to complete a federation charter embracing harmonised customs and tariffs and a single market.

Europe's policy began to change when the European Commission took over from Solana's team. The former ruled that the framework for the March accord did not conform to the SAA - in reality a contract between the EU and the aspirant state promising that after undertaking necessary reforms it would be a potential candidate for union membership. But there are other, more subtle reasons for the strategy switch.

As things stand, the EU cannot point to any major successes in recent years. The issues of enlargement and the project for joint defence remain undecided. Nobody knows what will become of internal reform within the union. Therefore powerful institutional pressure exists within the EU to deliver on at least one successful project - the Balkans.

For such success to be attained, it is not enough for the rump Yugoslavia to be some kind of vague union, but a solid and real one. Reinhard Priebe, who is responsible for the European Commission's Balkans office, said, "In Yugoslavia constitutional uncertainty and unclear institutional arrangements exist, both of which are the greatest obstacles to European integration. Economic integration is a question of common sense, and the principle on which the EU itself is based."

The U-turn will certainly suit Serbia, which is pushing for a strong federation. The Montenegrin leadership, pro-European for a number of years, cannot reject the new strategy, as it offers the only available way to reach Europe, even though it will have a tough job selling it to an independence-minded domestic public.

Europe itself cannot allow for the SAA to fail. Viewed from this standpoint, discarding Montenegrin independence would be regarded as no more than collateral damage.

The Cretins in the EU continue to screw everything up. Why won't they ever take responsibilty for their own stupid policies. When Milo was in power, they thought it clever to fund the balkans biggest cigarette smuggler (Montenegro's Djukanovic) who has good friends in the Mafia. Even Geroge Sorros set up a bank in Montenegro to launder funds and pay for the President's personal 18,000 man body guard (SAS, german forces/whatever trained).

The Empire just can't keep its f***ing finger out. Obviously not enough misery has been spread.

VRN

The HumWarriors had to back off when they were confronted with the hard fact that a soverign Montenegro would be responsible for paying off its foreign debt of some $650mm.

Given that Montenegro is only slightly more productive than Albania, and KosMet........Bankers holding this debt read Solona-Patten the riot act.

It is the same situation with Kosovo & Metohija. The Government says....HumWarrios you want rights over Kosovo, that's fine with us as long as you accept responsibility for Kosovo, including servicing Kosovo's $1.8 Billion foreign debt.

Bankers know that they'll never get a dime directly from Kosovo or Podgorica, but they know they'll be able to get Belgrade to pay up.

I am increasingly of a mind that Belgrade should kick Montenegro out. ( after suitable national referendum )

Ever since 1919, Montenegro has been a drain on Serbian resources. Billions upomn Billions have been spent on economic development........all for nought. Serbia can chose which of the 600,000 Montenegrians residing in Serbia to offer permanent residency to. The rest can be deported like any other illegal aliens back to Centinje.

I still feel that there is something missing. After all the effort of enforcing Solana's SlumSlavia deal, what made them make such a drastic U-turn? Was this deal 'made in Belgrade' or as part of the pay-off for Belgrade's cooperation with the ICTY or future cooperation? Whereas the US prefers blunt tactics (we'll give you money if you cooperate and none if you don't), the EU is generally far more subtle.

A separation does seem attractive, but Serbia is a big market for Montenegro and Montenegro provides access to the sea for Serbia. The proposed 'customs' union makes sense economically as any restrictions in trade will only damage their respective economies and have a further effect of creating duplication for other balkan coutries who want to ex/im to them. This is without even mentioning that it would go totally against the EU's 'Stability Pact' for SE Europe. The more barriers there are, the longer it will be before they are even invited to join the EU, let alone join in reality (which, unless I'm wrong, is not an unpopular idea in the region).

As for a cunning plan to get Belgrade to poney up for Kosovo's foreign debt, it could be balanced with the international theft of the Trepca works. I somehow doubt that even if it does get up and running againg (profitability), that Belgrade will recieve anything of note and it will be used to subisdise the Kosovo Albanians.

It also occurs to me that if the West stops providing money to Djukanovic to buy votes (how he won the 97 elections by ~7000 votes), then the majority will be against independence.

The subisdy question of Montenegro should also be clarified, i.e. it was Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia under the SFRY who subsidized most of the south. If you take a hard look at this question, Montenegro has effectively been independent of Serbia since '97, though mostly through cash from the West and smuggling. Reduction of these monies puts Montenegro in a weak position regarding the framing of a new consititution which I seriously doubt will give Montenegro the extensive veto powers it held under the SFRY.

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