Posted on 07/23/2002 1:34:21 AM PDT by TomGuy
The problem is that fundamentals are slow and boring. Market technicians who have become seers and prophets are the popular talking heads of all-day cable. Throw in a few gallons of fuel on the fire, provided by the means-spirited, hateful ilk of Gephardt and Gore, and what could anyone expect?
The media, with Fox as the exception rather than the rule, is doing all it can to fan the gloom-and-doom fire. The only thing that one can do is pray that people might finally be wising up. I even heard young people interviewed on tv saying that they weren't going to sell any stocks as they know that the markets will go back up. We can only hope that they have the same circumspect attitude when it comes to separating truth from bull in November.
True, but it's not just RATS.
I'll choose this reply to you to try and get some attention about what everybody's forgetting.
THE GOP LEADS THE DEMS IN FUNDRAISING FOR THIS ELECTION NEARLY 3-1.
Local elections turn on local issues and good advertising. The key to control of the Senate and the House will be where the money is spent and on what: ads that mean something significant to the voters seeing them. Bush's face can only go so far, but it will help if his popularity stays high. But local issues (and that many times means the local economy) will determine who wins and who loses.
Media spin--pure and simple. Greenspan, Kudlow, Samuelson, etc. are right--the economy is fundamentally solid and on-track. Like the general economy, most companies are fundamentally sound and many have reported higher than expected profits. Both unemployment and interest rates are low--a nice co-incidence. Those firms which are basically good companies with accounting problems will take the hit, have a couple of bad quarters re-adjusting, and bounce back in a year.
I'm no market maven, but I do understand that there is a difference between the market and the economy. The economy is fundamentally sound and improving. There's no panic out there. The market, otoh, is in a late bear market "blood on the floor" mood. I personally believe that we are closer to a bottom than we suspect, simply because the overall economy is quite strong.
However, the market does affect the national mood. I expect the "tanking" phase of the market to end within a couple of weeks. If I'm wrong, then no matter how fundamentally sound the economy may be, Republicans will lose at the polls. That's just reality. The poster above is right about the sheeple: bad market=bad economy=blame sitting President. There are times, after all, when the masses are asses. Recall that Clinton stayed in town only because he was riding a stock market boom.
The problem is that fundamentals are slow and boring. Market technicians who have become seers and prophets are the popular talking heads of all-day cable. Throw in a few gallons of fuel on the fire, provided by the means-spirited, hateful ilk of Gephardt and Gore, and what could anyone expect?
BUT the fundamentals are there, nonetheless.
The market cannot for long ignore the improvement in the economy. It CAN divest itself of the ridiculous gains of the 1990's tulip craze, and that's what all the blood on the floor is about. What we as a party should emphasize is that the market's value must be rebuilt on sound principles of true accounting and good value for money. The 1990's was not about that. It was about a political and economic leadership that told investors that there was nothing but blue sky on the horizon. The present attack line of the Democratic Party is to try and justify AmericaOnline at 450.00 a share, or Yahoo at 400 to secure Clinton in history, while attacking George W. Bush, who is innocent of any of this crap.
Everybody bought into Blue Sky. While everyone was buying into Blue Sky and the "repeal of the business cycle", guys like Ken Lay, Terry McAuliffe, and Michael Eisner were gaming the system. That's why we are where we are.
But in the end, it is the American people who will right this boat. Indeed, I suspect they about the business of righting it already. I hear a lot of bitching about the market, of course, but people will go on and recover.
As will George W. Bush, btw.
The media, with Fox as the exception rather than the rule, is doing all it can to fan the gloom-and-doom fire. The only thing that one can do is pray that people might finally be wising up. I even heard young people interviewed on tv saying that they weren't going to sell any stocks as they know that the markets will go back up. We can only hope that they have the same circumspect attitude when it comes to separating truth from bull in November.
If the economy starts to muscle in on the Market, as I suspect it will, then we will do better come the fall. As for the Market itself, I simply suggest that we hold in diversified portfolios. Indeed, there are many who suggest that now is the time to begin positioning onesself for some big buys.
There's a problem with this market that's ailing it. Many of the fund managers are young guys who came up in the Tulip Craze. They don't have the experience of trading in a true bear market. Thus, a lot of blood is on the floor. On the other hand, the older and wiser heads are positioned in bonds, precious metals, and are sitting on huge cash positions waiting for Der Tag. I am not as pessimistic as some of the bears, as I understand that this stuff works in cycles. After all, only liberal Democrats believe that the business cycle can be repealed.
One of the things that will pick the market up is when the news of the mobilization to get Saddam is getting under way. This is going to start happening soon. Part of what the investing classes are looking for is some action on the terrorist/Saddam front. They are about to get it. That will only help the market.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
Guess Ailes is worried about offending muslims.........
To say nothing of having Juan Williams doing news over the weekend........aaarrrrrrggggghhhhhhh
More evidence that Amendment XIX -- every Amendment after XV -- should be repealed.
The only swing women voters should either be unmarried or married to swing male voters. :-)
It made me sick to read a republican spokesperson say that they are trying to deal with the bad economy. The only thing republicans are doing for the economy is to increase federal spending very dramatically, faster even than the dems did.
The democrats are slime, we can all see that, but the reason why in all this time the repubs can't become the dominant party is because the republicans are the republicans. Lots of americans know the dems are slime, but also have a very deep dislike of the republicans, and for good reason, the republicans set policies that are harmful to lots of americans.
The republicans got over 50.0% of the popular vote in the 1984 house of representatives races nationwide. The people saw Reagan, a conservative, they liked him and voted republican. But since then the republicans have consistently supported high taxes, burdensome job-killing regulations, out of control spending, just like they used to criticize the dems for doing, then they wonder why they can't become the dominant party despite the democrats' obvious shortcomings that includes a large amount of criminal activity surrounding clinton.
Witness how people in the Bush administration showed disapproval of Simon in California. Witness how Schundler was sandbagged by the republicans in new jersey. Witness how high tax, big spending, corporate fascist type republicans are given the good committee assignments in congress. Witness how the RNC rushes money to the primary opponents of conservative republicans.
We should not forget that while bill clinton was president we witnessed that both parties are corrupt.
for dixie,sw
it's stuff like that being TOLERATED by the government that makes me nuts!
for dixie,sw
Yes the liberals are slime, but like you said conservatives are not only fighting them, we're fighting liberal RINOs in the Republican party as well. Some things are just common sense, and even thinking on voting for a Barney Frank bill to allow convicted felons back into the country is not very well thought out to say the least.
The Republican establishment thinks all voters have on their minds is Social Security and prescription drugs. Many do, but lots of us have other important issues we're thinking about as well, like runaway illegal immigration and open borders, which they are completely ignoring. In fact, I don't even see that issue mentioned in this story.
They had better wake up from the dream world they're living in if they want to hold on to the House and win the Senate.
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