GOP Warns of Impact on Voter Turnout

Yahoo-AP ^ | July 23, 2002 | DAVID ESPO

[TomGuy]

WASHINGTON (AP) - Corporate wrongdoing and economic jitters have soured the national mood noticeably in recent weeks, according to prominent Republican pollsters who warn of "GOP turnout problems" in midterm elections if the trend persists.

"The bottom has fallen out on the mood of the country," Public Opinion Strategies cautioned party strategists in and out of Congress in recent days.

Based on soundings taken recently in Georgia, the pollsters concluded that "WorldCom's announcement may have been the straw the broke the camel's back," a reference to the major telecommunications company's disclosure last month that it had erroneously accounted for nearly $4 billion in expenses.

Democrats must gain seven seats this fall to be assured of a majority in the House. Republicans need to gain one seat to return the Senate to a 50-50 tie that gives them control on the strength of Vice President Dick Cheney ( news - web sites)'s tie-breaking vote.

Republicans and Democrats alike have scrambled for political gain in the wake of WorldCom's announcement, and the polling report urged the GOP to be aggressive in doing so.

"The issue agenda seems tilted slightly toward the Democrats as our party struggles to right the economy and get a handle on the corporate corruption issue. Voters attitudes toward corporate offenders are hostile. Legislation punishing wrongdoers can't be too tough," Public Opinion said in a report obtained by The Associated Press.

It advised Republicans: "Get out in front of this issue now. Don't wait for the Democrats to tee off on you."

Public Opinion Strategies, which has dozens of Republican political clients, noted that GOP congressional candidates are continuing to run even with Democrats in hypothetical matchups for the fall.

At the same time, polling shows that the percentage of Americans who believe the country has moved off in the wrong direction is at 52 percent, up from 39 percent as recently as May. The percentage of people who said the country is moving in the right direction was pegged at 37 percent, down from 50 percent in May. At the same time, President Bush ( news - web sites)'s approval ratings have slipped.

"If the negative mood of the country is sustained over the next few months, look for GOP turnout problems," the pollsters cautioned. 'Wrong track' voters always turn out at higher rates than those believing the country is headed in the right direction."

Republicans were cautioned that senior citizens, who often vote in disproportionately large numbers in midterm elections, also show increasing concern about the direction of the country.

And among female voters who swing between the parties, the economy was not the only issue, the report said. "Of the dozens of issues we tested among swing women voters, getting tough on HMOs and prescription drugs for vulnerable seniors top the list."

Democrats have attacked Republicans vigorously in recent weeks on the issue of corporate scandals, attempting to depict the GOP as captive to special interests.

For their part, Senate Republicans responded by swinging behind a series of tough new penalties for corporate wrongdoers, and helping pass legislation 97-0.

In the House, GOP leaders moved swiftly to bring their own bill to the floor for a vote to toughen some penalties even further.

House and Senate negotiators met last Friday to begin work on a final compromise measure to crack down on corporate fraud, and prevent future abuses. Several sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said no significant progress was made over the weekend, with key lawmakers out of town.

House Republicans, who pushed through corporate abuse legislation last spring — before the WorldCom announcement — appear to have little leverage in their negotiations with the Senate.

Several GOP lawmakers circulated a letter signed by several dozen members of the rank-and-file to Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., urging him to skip the negotiations and allow a vote on the Senate-passed measure. That bill is deemed tougher — even by many Republicans — on most points than legislation the House approved in April

Hastert declined, but lawmakers involved in seeking signatures on the letter said during the day they believe he may yet grant their wish if there is no compromise with the Senate by week's end.

"The speaker hasn't said as much to me but everyone I've talked to on this issue has assured me there will be a vote by Friday," said Rep. Mark Foley ( news, bio, voting record), R-Fla.

Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., added, "I feel very, very confident" that GOP leaders will put strong legislation on the House floor by week's end, when lawmakers are scheduled to begin a monthlong summer break. "I received some strong commitments," he added.

[PoisedWoman]

I keep wondering, "why now?" Why are we faced with sudden scandals close to election time? They were scandals last year, too. Is this an intentional conspiracy by the DemonRats and their press collaborators, or did beleaguered companies' money happen to run out at this time?

[spetznaz]

I just saw something on Fox that even though GWs approval ratings are still in the sixties there is some future turmoil since the ratings for 'would you like to see Bush re-elected in 2004' was in the 47% +/- some points. they said the reason for this is due to the corporate scandals, and that it might get worse as 2004 approaches.

[WyldKard]

While it's easy to want to find a conspiracy, it sounds to me more like extrodinarily bad timing. After Enron, it was like one huge stack of dominos falling...

Unfortunately, most voters minds work on a very simple principle: Economy Bad = Blame Current Sitting President. This is exacerbated by another simplistic principle in most voters mind, which is: Naughty Corporations = Republicans Behaving Badly.

I think the elections will be very close in many places this November...

[Caipirabob]

Figured most people expected the economic time bomb to go off when Clinton was chased from the office. I remember thinking this specifically when warning my mother to make solid low risk estimates from her real estate yields the summer of '99 when she moved down here with us. God was smiling on me the day I said that. As it turned out she invested in more real estate down here just prior to a price boom.

[LS]

I disagree that this is bad timing. July is not bad at all. If this was September, I'd be more concerned. But things like this usually turn, and the public memory---even though the GOP is in no way to blame---is short. By October, there will be other issues, just as likely some in the GOP's favor.

[Valin]

A question is will the Presidents high approval numbers translate into voyes for GOP candidates this Nov.?

[Alas Babylon!]

The problem is indeed due to big media. They are anti-Bush, anti-Republican, and anti-conservative. Bias and Slander were not written in a vacuum.

The top story for ABCCBSCNNNBCPBS and all the leftist print media has been:

ENRON=BUSH
WORLDCOM=BUSH
ARTHUR ANDERSEN=BUSH
STOCK MARKET DOWNTURN=BUSH
HARKEN=BUSH
HALBURTON=BUSH/CHENEY

The question is, are we going to counter this using:

ALL THE BAD THINGS WE KNOW ARE TRUE=DEMOCRATS?

[OldFriend]

I don't that many Americans will stay home from the polls in the hope that democrats can take over and RAISE THEIR TAXES!

[OldFriend]

Getting hard to tell FNC from CNN these days. Shame on Roger Ailes!

[Reaganwuzthebest]

Today as we speak the Republicans on the Judiciary Committee are voting on a Sensenbrenner, Barney Frank Bill that will allow deported convicted felon immigrants back into the country.

If some conservatives stay home this November, the Republicans have no one to blame but themselves.

[AmericanInTokyo]

I think come October we will find that even REPUBLICANS can wag that ol' puppy!

[AmericanInTokyo]

The only way the Republicans can emerge from this by November is to :

Start Throwing Some of Their Prominent Campaign Donors Into the Iron Chateau

BUT, it's mighty hard to bite the hand that feeds you. A lot of these guys are "Pioneers" and their wives hold Republican teas at the Ritz Carlton....

(This, of course, is not to infer that the Democrats don't have their own fingers fastidiously into the American political corruption/money politics' pie. Just as bad, perhaps).

Really. Until the man on the street starts seeing some of the stock-optioned, book-cooking, gated community/country club set who screwed their companies and employees exchanging their tony polo shirts for prison stripes (with Bush/Justice Dept. taking credit) I don't think they will recover by the Fall and Gephardt will have one hell of an election night. (Pre-emptable by Desert Storm II, possibly)

[mwl1]

None of this matters until September/October, and then it will depend on the shape of the economy, not the corporate scandals. People's memories are very short. In 1998 the sheeple could not even remember in November that the president of the united states committed perjury before a federal grand jury in a civil rights lawsuit just a month before.

[YaYa123]

You asked, "I keep wondering, "why now?" Why are we faced with sudden scandals close to election time? "

with apologies to Alfred Lord Tennyson
OURS IS NOT TO REASON WHY, OURS IS BUT TO DO OR DIE

We should adopt his philosophy,rename his poem, and start working now on the upcoming election. Our logo should be:

"The Charge of the Right Brigade".

If this article's prediction is true, and past experience shows it might be, we have to go to war for votes. Republicans are predicting poor voter turn-out, which might have something to do with Gebhardt already predicting demos will pick up 40 seats in the House.

[mwl1]

Could just as easily be disinformation to lull the RATS into complacency. We are still polling very strongly in the generic congressional matchup.

[finnman69]

Go have fun with the Libertarians and their 0.3% turnout.