Free Republic

The dust from the US midterm elections is beginning to settle and experts are struggling to understand the implications. While most Republicans are disappointed, for Christian leaders, the results are particularly concerning. It is clear that the elections seemed important to voters as turnout was relatively high by midterm standards. Voter turnout was the second-highest of any midterm, only slightly less than the elections in 1970. In addition, the 2022 midterm elections were the most expensive in the history of the United States. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate...

The last decade has seen a boom in voter turnout -- for both parties. Between the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections, total voter turnout rose 23%, with Democratic turnout up 23% and Republican turnout up 22%. Yet, because of the changing distribution of votes, the results were significantly different. The 2012 election was not a close thing: Mitt Romney could not have reversed the Electoral College result without erasing Barack Obama's margins of 481,806 votes in four states (Florida Iowa, Ohio, Virginia). By comparison, Donald Trump won in 2016 thanks to a margin of only 77,736 votes in three states...

More than 57% of New Mexico voters have already cast their ballot. "A tremendous number of people have already voted, more than ever before, early,” said KOAT political analyst Brian Sanderoff. To put this in perspective, the previous record for early and absentee voting was 48%. That was set in 2008 when Barack Obama won his first term as president. "This is a clerk's dream. I am loving every minute of this,” said Bernalillo County Clerk Linda Stover. "Hopefully we can keep this enthusiasm. This is how it should be for every election.” So, why are so many people voting...

WESTBY, Wisconsin -- Spend any time with people who supported presidential candidate Donald Trump in 2016 and you quickly find out that the reasons they voted for Trump had very little to do with him. It is likely one of the most misunderstood threads among this new conservative populist coalition. To get the real reasons for their support for Trump, you have to be where they are, have no preconceived ideas about who they are and have no prejudice for what you think their motivations are. Tom Schaub, Ralph Petersheim, Donna Leum, Kris Amundson and Ben Klinkner are all sitting...

The New York Times' Nate Cohn penned an analysis piece that, bucking conventional trends, said that there is an opportunity for higher voter turnout in 2020 to actually benefit President Trump’s odds of being reelected. The UpShot analysis found that instead of the traditional wisdom that higher voter turnout just helps Democrats, there are opportunities and risks for both parties. The author based his findings on voter registration files, the validated turnout of 50,000 respondents to New York Times/Siena College pre-election surveys in 2018, polls of unregistered voters, and census data. High voter turnout typically favors Democrats because younger, nonwhite,...

Midnight blue California is often cited as an indicator of national trends. If this is still the case, then the big blue wave predicted by some pollsters and progressive pundits will become a big blue drip. Early voting in the Golden State is trending bright red. Election Day is around the corner and Californians have been voting for three weeks. Given the data on who has voted so far, it does not point to a big surge for Democrats. There are scores of first time candidates running for office but actual voter turnout in California so far has been average...

In a special preview for Axios readers, here's a new analysis by David Wasserman of Cook Political Report, unpacking the GOP's daunting math: "With 102 days to go, Democrats remain substantial favorites for House control. A big reason: Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930." (After the March victory by Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania, Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take the House). "Of Republicans' 42 incumbent-less seats, eight are in districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and an additional 13 are in districts where President Trump received less...

Stories have been popping in the wake of the 2016 election claiming that Donald Trump not only got fewer popular votes than Hillary Clinton, but he got fewer votes than Mitt Romney did in 2012 when he lost to Barack Obama. The combination seems to undermine Trump's claim to anything like a mandate. "Donald Trump will become president although he received about 1.74 million fewer votes than 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney," wrote Kyle Feldscher in the Washington Examiner. Never-Trumper Ben Shapiro, writing in National Review, claimed that "Trump underperformed Romney ... in a vastly expanded electorate. That's not the...

On September 26th Gallup released the results of the survey it does each September before an election. The important data points it contained are significant as a means as calmly accessing where Donald Trump stands going into this year’s election. Within the results was the fact that, at just 47%, the intentions of Democrats to vote is at the lowest point since 2000. This is not the insignificant matter that the Democrat controlled media would have us believe. Aside from the large 11 point intensity to vote edge that Donald Trump voters have, if this portends a lower than usual...

SCENARIO THE REUTERS/IPSOS ESTIMATE OF TURNOUT In this scenario: Currently, Reuters/Ipsos estimates overall turnout at around 60%, although that rate varies among different demographic groups. Minority turnout, for example, is expected to be about 43%, while about 59% of African-American women and 69% of White men are projected to cast ballots.

There's an old adage that says, “You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink.” As presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump spend the tail-end of their campaigns securing votes on the big day, their biggest battle may not be getting voters to stand on their side –– as much as getting voters to literally mark that ballot. One of the most obvious determining factors to the election's outcome is whether voters bother going to the polls at all –– leaving the fate of the country in the hands of the few who do. The...

2000 50.3% 2004 55.7% 2008 57.1% 2012 54.9%

I consider myself to work with plenty of smart people. Some staunch conservatives, others moderate. But being that this is a financial business, most are not liberal. So the following came up at lunch today with a person recently away from news on vacation. Person: Anything exciting happen with Trump? Me: Not really Person: I can't believe he's still around Me: Why? Person: He's so obnoxious. You wouldn't vote for him would you? Me: Of course. 7 days a week if he's against Hillary. Person: If it's the two of them, I'm not voting. What do you think? Isn't this...

A report from the campaign field in Iowa demonstrates what could be a big problem for Donald Trump, getting all those people who have been showing up at his rallies to actually show up to vote: When Donald Trump held one of his boisterous rallies at the state fairgrounds this month, Bonnie and Randy Reynolds arrived two hours early to make sure they could snag seats. They bought “Make America Great Again” hats, put on campaign T-shirts and passed through a security checkpoint. The West Des Moines couple, who have two grown children, had never been to a political event...

You don't have to wander long in the liberal commentariat to find projections that the Republican Party is in a death spiral, doomed by demographics, discredited by the dissension among House Republicans, disenchanted with its experienced presidential candidates and despised by the great mass of voters. There is something to be said for each of these propositions -- and yet Republican candidates keep winning elections, as in recent contests in Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi and Virginia. Admittedly, the first three of these states have been solidly Republican in recent presidential and congressional elections, and Americans have increasingly been straight-ticket voters. But...

This week in 1976, Jimmy Carter, then-governor of Georgia, locked up the democratic nomination for president when George Wallace, Henry Jackson and Richard Daley released their delegates and endorsed him. Carter was a fresh, smiling face. He had worked hard for the nomination, deciding early in the process that he would compete everywhere, for every vote. He was a relentless campaigner and had scores of volunteers (the Peanut Brigade), who would travel to states, walk door to door, talk about their candidate and follow up with hand-written notes at night. Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, who ran 16 years later, was...

Freedom: By suggesting that voting should be mandatory, President Obama — the "smartest president in history" — has endorsed an idea that is unworkable, unconstitutional and probably wouldn't even boost turnout.

For crying out loud, GOP, please, please, please stand for something! There is a verse in the Bible that says, You are neither hot nor cold. You are lukewarm, and I spew you out of my mouth. Even God considers spineless, noncommittal, wimpy, lukewarm behavior distasteful. Conservative-leaning media and pundits all over TV are predicting that the GOP will win big in a week or so; a majority in the U.S. Senate is almost a done deal. However, I caution our side not to count our chickens before they hatch. Polls show that we have shaky narrow leads in some...

The Los Angeles Ethics Commission (the term “ethics” is used rather loosely in this case) has a plan to get more voters to turn out on Election Day. Basically, they think the city should bribe people to show up at the polls. According to LA Times:Alarmed that fewer than one-fourth of voters are showing up for municipal elections, the Los Angeles Ethics Commission voted Thursday to recommend that the City Council look at using cash prizes to lure a greater number of people to the polls. On a 3-0 vote, the panel said it wanted City Council President Herb Wesson's Rules,...

It's spring, an election off year and primaries are in full swing across the country. In my home state of Georgia, the primary is less than a week away, and the ballot is chock full of hotly contested primaries. In the race for the open U.S. Senate seat, a slew of Republican candidates are vying for one of the two spots for the July 22 runoff. These candidates include three sitting congressmen -- Paul Braun, Phil Gingrey and Jack Kingston. The top three candidates in this primary are David Perdue, Jack Kingston and Karen Handel; only one of the sitting...