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Best wishes to the birthday girls!

Before I say goodnight, I just wanted to share with all of you an e-mail message that I received (as an RNC team leader) from Matthew Dowd -- the President's pollster/senior advisor. We should all sleep better tonight knowing the TRUTH about the President's poll numbers!!

Dear Debra,

Over three months ago, based on historical evidence, I predicted that President Bush’s approval numbers would slowly decline and likely settle into the low 60s as Democratic partisans returned home, higher than his pre-9/11 approval numbers.

It took FDR's approval numbers 46 weeks to return to their normal levels from prior to Pearl Harbor. And it took former President Bush's approval numbers 41 weeks to return to normal levels after Operation Desert Storm. After 44 weeks President Bush is still experiencing historically high approval ratings.

The President’s approval number has been dropping by an average of two percentage points a month. At the end of September 2001, Gallup showed the President’s approval at 90%; in April, 2002 it was 76%; and today, in nearly all polls, it is between 70% and 74%. This is somewhat better than the decline we expected. Nonetheless, we still expect the average drop to continue and the numbers should settle out around 62 to 64% by November 2002. Many pundits and politicians continue to attribute the decline to daily events or political attacks when in fact the natural historical trend we eyed many weeks back is holding true.*

Recently, there has been increasing attention and much commentary, some misguided, on the right direction/wrong track numbers. Today, in RNC polls, right direction is even with wrong track. This is exactly where the numbers were before 9/11/01. The right direction numbers are well off the highs that followed the events of last September, but the return of this one number does not reflect the overall political landscape as many pundits might suggest.

An accurate understanding must consider the entire political landscape. Consider the following for comparison. Prior to 9/11, the right direction/wrong track numbers were exactly what they are today and the following political dynamic existed:

1. the Democratic Party had a four point favorability advantage over the Republican party;
2. Democratic candidates led on generic ballot by 4 to 6 points;
3. President Bush’s approval was 51%;
4. Bush approval on handling economy was +3% over disapproval; and
5. voters seeing Bush as understanding the average person was +4% over not understanding.

In contrast, while the right direction number has returned to a pre-9/11 level the following political dynamic exists today:

1. the Republican Party has a two point favorability advantage;
2. the generic ballot is even;
3. Bush approval is approximately 73%;
4. Bush approval on the economy is +21% over disapproval; and
5. Bush understanding average person is now +23% over not understanding.

So a return to pre-9/11 right direction of country has not meant a return to the same pre- 9/11 political landscape. It is important to note that some politicians and pundits will use one indicator to support their arguments or judge the changing political environment but when you consider the entire current landscape; right direction is back to pre-9/11 levels, Republicans have maintained an increase of support by four to six points, and President Bush maintains an increase of support by 18 to 22 points on various scales it still looks as though, the outcome of the November elections will be decided district by district and state
by state.