They found that the solar wind fluctuations had a much higher probability of extreme events than for more familiar random processes (which follow a Gaussian or bell shaped curve). Posted on 07/26/2002 4:36:30 PM PDT by gcruse
Stock Market Swings Connected to Solar Cycle
July 26, 2002 09:30 CDT
Astrophysicists at the University of Warwick have applied data analysis methods used to model stock market fluctuations, to explore changes in the solar wind (the sun’s expanding atmosphere). They have discovered that the fluctuations in the solar wind follow the same kinds of patterns seen in the stock markets – particularly when it comes to the number of extreme events or large fluctuations.
The researchers led by Professor Sandra Chapman at the University of Warwick, used “finite size scaling” to look at the probability of fluctuations or jumps in magnetic energy density in the solar wind, using data from the NASA-WIND spacecraft. They found that the solar wind fluctuations had a much higher probability of extreme events than for more familiar random processes (which follow a Gaussian or bell shaped curve).
In fact statistically, the solar wind fluctuations are similar to those found previously for fluctuations in stock market indices. Large fluctuations in the solar wind affect our local ‘space weather’. Predicting these is as challenging as predicting large changes in stock prices. As this work suggests that the underlying mathematics is similar we can apply knowledge from one area to understand the other.
The researchers also found that the magnetic energy density fluctuations were self-similar (in that the pattern of variations looked very similar at all time scales up to a period of 20 hours or so – in the same way that a fractal image tends to show very similar properties or patterns when you look at it on different scales). The team members are using their new analysis to modify current turbulence theories to produce more useful mathematical models of the occurrence of extreme events in the solar wind.
The research team’s first paper is entitled “B. Hnat, S.C. Chapman, G. Rowlands, N.W. Watkins and W. M. Farrell, Finite size in the solar wind magnetic field energy density as seen by WIND, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 86-1, (2002). The authors are from the University of Warwick, the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.
In other words,they have no frickin' idea,but I see a book in the future:
"How to survive the coming Solar Collapse"
An excellent reference on the timing of these types of events can be found in "The Spiral Calendar," by Christopher Carolan, a truly thought-provoking book.
THIS RESEARCH FINDS NO CONNECTION BETWEEN SOLAR CYCLES AND THE STOCK MARKET.
But the moron headline writer thought it would be a more interesting story if it did. The research deals with the PATTERNS of the solar wind, and how they can have a similar pattern to stock market fluctuations. This doesn't mean that the sun INFLUENCES the stock market going up or down.
As I stated, and reinforced by John HK, the article says that the same statistical model may be used to describe solar wind fluctuations and the stock market. The word "correlation" isn't used the body of the article.
The headline writer obviously didn't read the article, or didn't understand the difference between correlation and descriptive statistics.
Jack
Hint: my husband worked in an 800-ft. deep mine for several years. No decompression chambers were necessary at the end of each shift.
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